I believe Ric mentioned W23 and W24 which is why Hodgkinsken just posted those.
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
hodgkinsken
Active Member
Correct
W19 - Is Mississauga
W27 - Is halton Hills
W28 - Is Caledon
Looking at nov vs nov can be misleading. One data point does not a trend make. I don't think anyone is arguing that activity is down over last years record breaking November.
Kenny
Active Member
Statistically insignificant. Some of the skew could even be attributed to the extra Sunday in Nov, 2010 compared to Nov, 2009.
ponyboy
Active Member
thanks for the comments everyone! good advice.
daveto
Active Member
And how many data points make a trend? 3? 5? 20? For reference, monthly sales YOY are down since the summer.
daveto
Active Member
Statistically insignificant? Based upon what standard.
I'm an actuary, and in my professional opinion it certainly is statistically significant.
paperchopper
New Member
interested
Senior Member
Boy the fur is flying today. This is great stuff.
To weigh in: I believe Pink Lucy is correct when she states they may be behind on their website. That said, it is very strange that noone would be capable of posting/updating the R/E numbers working for the Brampton Real Estate Board. A couple of weeks maybe but going on 4 months is suspect.
That said, Paperchopper is fairly saying that he is relying on anectdotal evidence which he feels probably quite justifiably supports his position that Brampton is having difficulties. If one thinks about it, it makes sense because Brampton is one of the spots with the most amount of available land so there has been alot of construction going on there and therefore it would stand to reason that if there was a slowdown, it would show up more quickly there than other areas which have less new product.
cdr and DaveTO: I agree that the slowdowns are significant and don't really see how anyone can sugar coat it to say it is not. That said, we must grant that last year was the best year on record so as others have suggested in the past, comparing to 2 or 3 years is more helpful.
Ponyboy, I do agree with Ric on the issue that one can't put their life on hold forever. Despite the cold hearted approach of just looking at the investment, there is something to be said about owning your own home. If nothing else, it means (provided you can afford it) no landlord decides to sell from under you or tells you how to or not to decorate. I do get it. However, I think asking you to run the numbers and to try and show your wife the potential downfall of buying near a peak is very important.
I would remind you that those who bought in TO at the peak in 1989 had to wait until about 2003 or so until prices had recovered. 14 years is a long time to be in a starter place which may not suit your needs in 5 years. I am not saying you should plan for 14 years, and I agree that a minimum 5 year horizon is a must, but just point out that this did not work out so well in 1989 for people and we are just now coming off 10 straight years essentially of continuous increases.
To weigh in: I believe Pink Lucy is correct when she states they may be behind on their website. That said, it is very strange that noone would be capable of posting/updating the R/E numbers working for the Brampton Real Estate Board. A couple of weeks maybe but going on 4 months is suspect.
That said, Paperchopper is fairly saying that he is relying on anectdotal evidence which he feels probably quite justifiably supports his position that Brampton is having difficulties. If one thinks about it, it makes sense because Brampton is one of the spots with the most amount of available land so there has been alot of construction going on there and therefore it would stand to reason that if there was a slowdown, it would show up more quickly there than other areas which have less new product.
cdr and DaveTO: I agree that the slowdowns are significant and don't really see how anyone can sugar coat it to say it is not. That said, we must grant that last year was the best year on record so as others have suggested in the past, comparing to 2 or 3 years is more helpful.
Ponyboy, I do agree with Ric on the issue that one can't put their life on hold forever. Despite the cold hearted approach of just looking at the investment, there is something to be said about owning your own home. If nothing else, it means (provided you can afford it) no landlord decides to sell from under you or tells you how to or not to decorate. I do get it. However, I think asking you to run the numbers and to try and show your wife the potential downfall of buying near a peak is very important.
I would remind you that those who bought in TO at the peak in 1989 had to wait until about 2003 or so until prices had recovered. 14 years is a long time to be in a starter place which may not suit your needs in 5 years. I am not saying you should plan for 14 years, and I agree that a minimum 5 year horizon is a must, but just point out that this did not work out so well in 1989 for people and we are just now coming off 10 straight years essentially of continuous increases.
Kenny
Active Member
Ummm... gut statistics? A few random events could result in a much changed variation between 699 and 828. The numbers are pretty small. Weather, news, a few major openings, etc., could throw the difference quite a bit.
paperchopper
New Member
Yeah, you're right-- could have been that Justin Biebr concert out in LA, the disappearance of the Double Down or two mysterious rock colliding in space. Hahahaha
The answer is simple, demand is down, assuming those numbers are correct, which they're most likely not. Those are resale numbers apparently too, nobody knows new sales #'s (BREB hasn't published numbers in 4 months)
This is the same mentality as in the US before the bubble, sales down 50% -- oh, some people didn't decorate their homes nicely, oh, the weather was bad. The alignment of days of the week to the calendar days was off...... Hahahhahahah
Oh man, wtf Kenny? 2 + 2 = 5, right?
paperchopper
New Member
Calgary down 25% YOY last month
Resales down 9.6% or so in general from last year overall in Canada
Listings to sales ratio steadily increasing........
Resales down 9.6% or so in general from last year overall in Canada
Listings to sales ratio steadily increasing........
Shtopor
New Member
paperchopper, there are a lot of realtors on this forum, who positioned themselves for another straight 10 years of profits off rising RE prices. It is indeed hard for them to actually look at the reality. US/European RE correction, income/RE prices disparity, rent/own ratios,70% ownership, 150% debt ratios is not even a subject of their discussion when it comes to sacred canadian RE. Well dear realtors first volume goes down (which we already have) prices will follow.
Ric
Active Member
Dude, you dont know me or how I run my business so don't make blanket statements like that. I've been quite consistent with my comments on this board on what I feel is happening in the market. My advice has always been that speculators that are looking to flip in this market should stay away. I've said that people looking to invest should only do so after careful research and make sure that what they are buying can generate a +ve cash flow. I've also adviced end users that feel that they cannot wait for the "bubble to pop" to only purchase if they have at least 10% deposit and a long term plan (>5yrs) of staying in their home.
How much clearer would you want me to be?
BTW, I get paid for giving great advice that translate into repeat business. I never advice a client to do anything I wouldn't personally do for myself.
Ric
Active Member
Come on guys; first it was Brampton sales are down 70-80%. This was quickly dispel with actual facts. Now you are saying the figures were extrapolated?
So anyone can start some crazy rumour and you all run with it? That's nuts.
Next you going to hear that Priests loves little boys. Oh wait, they do.....
So anyone can start some crazy rumour and you all run with it? That's nuts.
Next you going to hear that Priests loves little boys. Oh wait, they do.....
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rbt
Senior Member
I'm tempted to offer you the ability to short as I plan on purchasing a triplex next summer but my lawyer will advise me to get a 25% spread in a trust account and no sane person would do that.