Baby, we got a bubble!?

[KA1]

Exodus posted today on the Aura projects thread that "price increases on the way at Aura" in the fall. I believe he is quoting the developer.
Interesting that while it is usual as the building erects to increase the price, the builder feels he can state this for the fall given that alot of us feel the market is weakening and will drop in the fall. Of course he does not have to raise prices or may do an insignificant increase (eg. $5000 on $800,000 will hardly matter I guess) but I find it interesting he would say this. Maybe it is to spark some people on the fence to act before things do downturn if this is in fact what ends up happening.

http://www.collegeparkcondos.com/

There are only a handful units available in AURA.

Please click on the link above to AURA website. Then, on the right hand side click on Price list.

Try calculating per sq ft prices. It is not cheap.

 

[simuls]

I almost bought a unit at Aura last year. While I do like the building and genuinely hope that it helps spur a revitalization of yonge street, I haven't really seen the two College Park towers do that to Bay. Even Murano hasn't done anything well because city planning is letting the citizens down by not making the developers include retail in the podium - small, 20 foot wide retail. There's a reason people still walk along Yonge St., south of bloor, Queen West, King West, etc and it's this pedestrian/something new to see every 5 steps thing. When I almost bought it was around $544/ft (last March), but would have a massive terrace facing the Delta and that sucked. Because it's the tallest tower, the highest floors might command $700+ (even up to Yorkville prices -which will drop btw), but there's no way that anything under 25 will get more than $600. With the new 20% downpayment rule, I'm expecting huge amounts of assignments on this one. Hopefully the market will have recovered by the time it's finished (2014 I'm guessing).

 

[myfive]

With the new 20% downpayment rule, I'm expecting huge amounts of assignments on this one. Hopefully the market will have recovered by the time it's finished (2014 I'm guessing).

Condos are always 20% down aren't they...save for the odd builder's special deals. Everyone i've been in requires 5% down in 4 installemnts, usally over the fist year, then another 5% on occupation or closing.

Aslo, i wouldn't worry about the market recovering by 2014.....good gracious! If i'm correct, we will see the buyers back starting this fall. Just a pause in the action right now due to the pre HST frenzy. In 6 months or so the women will be looking over to their husbands and saying 'Aren't we going to buy a condo?' and out they will go to find one. (lol). Just kiddin' but i do expect that by next spring things will be moving nicely again.

 

[KA1]

I almost bought a unit at Aura last year... I almost bought it was around $544/ft (last March), Because it's the tallest tower, the highest floors might command $700+ (even up to Yorkville prices -which will drop btw), but there's no way that anything under 25 will get more than $600. With the new 20% downpayment rule, I'm expecting huge amounts of assignments on this one. Hopefully the market will have recovered by the time it's finished (2014 I'm guessing).

A few comments from the owner of a unit in AURA at a high floor (59).

At $ 544 sq. ft, price in March 2009, for the lower floors, was almost the same as in March 2008. VIP agents event price was $ 500.00 sq. ft. A few week later, price for owners of a unit in RoCP 1 & 2 was $ 550 sq. ft. I am surprised that prices have not gone higher than March 2008 prices.

In March 2008, I was given the impression that most of the units on lower floors have been fully sold. Around the Fall of 2008, a member of the sales staff had mentioned to me that a few buyers had backed out of the commitments ( and had lost 1 or 2 installments) and these units were back in the market.

I paid $ 700 sq ft for the unit on Executive flloors. A few remaining -- and big -- units on sale are going for around $ 850.00 sq. ft.

Canderel has always wanted a 20% deposit to be paid over 4 quarterly installments. As such, on that count only, there might not be that many assignments. According to purchase agreement, a unit can be listed for assignment only when the building has been constructed upto 1 level above grade. As such, any assignments should hit the market sometime next year. That will be an opportunity to buy a unit from someone who wishes to bail out. Depending upon market conditions, there could be more assignments as the construction progresses to higher floors.

Projected occupancy date, starting at lower floors, was June 2012. Considering the state of construction as now, I do not think that projected date will be met.

 

[myfive]

Projected occupancy date, starting at lower floors, was June 2012. Considering the state of construction as now, I do not think that projected date will be met.

They are always so optimistic. The parking and retail on that building will take forever. I'd be surprised if anyone got in that building before 2014, but maybe late in 2013.

 

[cdr108]

They are always so optimistic. The parking and retail on that building will take forever. I'd be surprised if anyone got in that building before 2014, but maybe late in 2013.

yes, and i don't thnk the building will be fully completed until 2015/2016.

 

[simuls]

Condos are always 20% down aren't they...save for the odd builder's special deals. Everyone i've been in requires 5% down in 4 installemnts, usally over the fist year, then another 5% on occupation or closing.

Aslo, i wouldn't worry about the market recovering by 2014.....good gracious! If i'm correct, we will see the buyers back starting this fall. Just a pause in the action right now due to the pre HST frenzy. In 6 months or so the women will be looking over to their husbands and saying 'Aren't we going to buy a condo?' and out they will go to find one. (lol). Just kiddin' but i do expect that by next spring things will be moving nicely again.

I bought at DNA (Canderel) with 10% down, and it's always up for negotiation. If you're willing to put even more down, then you should get a correspondingly lower purchase price. While they might say 20% down, most developers will only require 5-10% from people buying multiple units. These are the ones that will be most vulnerable.

There is no way a turnaround is coming this fall and in fact, I predict the numbers will get worse. 2014 numbers, imo, will be similar to 2007 numbers price and sales wise. July will be the worst one in a decade.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but with the Four Season, Ritz Carlton, Shangri-La and Trump Tower all finished long before Aura, I think Aura will be in a very limited niche market - not high end, not affordable. All the high end has been taken care of and there is limited appetite for those in between. I know one of the former sales reps at Aura and it's about 40% investors which leads me to believe that they'll ditch asap if they bought at anytime over the last year. If they bought before, they should probably be ok, but I really don't think, rent wise, that people will pay a 50% premium to live at Aura vs. equivalents in the area. If they don't and rental vacancy is as high as I think it will be, tons of places will flood the market.

All that being said, I think I still shoul've purchased as it would've been a good investment - I was just a little bit pissed at Canderel at the time. If you hold onto this long term (10 years) I think you'll be in great shape.

 

[myfive]

There is no way a turnaround is coming this fall and in fact, I predict the numbers will get worse. 2014 numbers, imo, will be similar to 2007 numbers price and sales wise. July will be the worst one in a decade.

All that being said, I think I still shoul've purchased as it would've been a good investment - I was just a little bit pissed at Canderel at the time. If you hold onto this long term (10 years) I think you'll be in great shape.

couple things...don't get too hung up ont he numbers. Of course they are down but it needs to be looked at in the context of the pre-HST frenzy. Everyone is taking a break now, but they didn't all get theri units. I sold downtown in April, essentally the peak of the market, and my agent said there were 100 buyers thru my unit in a week. Only one peson got the unit, and there was just not that much supply out there so i know the vast majority will still be looking even now. But they will pause partly in reaciton to the HST, partly because it is summer, and partly to see how things shake out. But they will not go away IMO. And by next year there will be added a whole new stream of buyers ready to purchase as well.

I guess we can only talk about this so much...in the end the market will show itself over the next year. I'm obviously much more bulliish than most on the forum. I'm glad were pausing. It will delay the start of many projects.

I think the Colllege Park condos are extermely popular and Aura wil be as well. As will be One bloor, Uptown and Crystal Blu because all of these are connected to the PATH underground. I wouldn't underestimate the value of this. My downtown agent mentioned this to me. A lot of people really want this. I really wish Cressford had hooked up CASA and BSN as well.

edit; one other note....last couple times i've talked to my agent he says ' get an assignment at Aura'. lol. The only project he mentions to me. Gotta mean something!

 

[interested]

c
edit; one other note....last couple times i've talked to my agent he says ' get an assignment at Aura'. lol. The only project he mentions to me. Gotta mean something!

I am not sure why is he telling you this. Is it because he thinks it is great value or because he is anticipating alot of people letting go of their investments and hence transiently depressing the price?

 

[cdr108]

couple things...don't get too hung up ont he numbers. Of course they are down but it needs to be looked at in the context of the pre-HST frenzy. Everyone is taking a break now, but they didn't all get theri units. I sold downtown in April, essentally the peak of the market, and my agent said there were 100 buyers thru my unit in a week. Only one peson got the unit, and there was just not that much supply out there so i know the vast majority will still be looking even now. But they will pause partly in reaciton to the HST, partly because it is summer, and partly to see how things shake out. But they will not go away IMO. And by next year there will be added a whole new stream of buyers ready to purchase as well.

that's interesting you believe the HST had any effect on sales.
considering it doesn't apply to resales and almost all pre-construction condos include it in their price, the HST would only apply to the service/transaction fees
(ie. realtor commissions which would be paid by the seller anyways, so why would buyers care?;
and lawyers fees but what's $80 based on hypothetical $1000 legal fee when one is looking at the average $350,000-400,000 purchase?)

now if there truly was an HST effect, then these people are really ignorant and didn't do their due diligence.
but then again, i heard the same thing for the TLTT and that did cause a rush before the deadline.
however, i think that was also foolish as i heard many examples of people paying 5-10+% over list to get the property to avoid a 1% tax ... LOL

... April was still very active.
however, things changed dramatically by the end of the month b/c the new CMHC rules were in effect.

i listed a property of mine in dt toronto in May and it wasn't very active with showings from what my realtor told me. apparently other listings weren't as active also, and there was much more product hitting the market.
it took abit longer than what i expected but it was sold a little more than a 1 1/2 months on the market at list.

 

[Johnzz]

one other note....last couple times i've talked to my agent he says ' get an assignment at Aura'. lol. The only project he mentions to me. Gotta mean something!

It seems to me that most pre-constructed condominiums are skilfully over-hyped during the initial sales period and, subsequently once built, rarely meet expectations (and almost never exceed them).

As a value investor, I’m always on the hunt for under-priced or under-appreciated buildings and, as such, rarely purchase pre-construction. However, I believe Aura will prove to be one of those buildings which, once built, surpass all expectations. Due to this buildings sheer mass and location, it’s actually quite difficult to truly envision beforehand. In addition, I feel the internal marketing done by Canderel hasn’t really been over-hyped and, once built, the opportunity to purchase units below fair value (relatively speaking) will likely disappear. Just for the record, I purchased a unit back in late 2008 and another in early 2009 (both 70+ floor).

I could be wrong here, but Aura, and recently Five, have been the first pre-construction projects I’ve purchased since 2001.

 

[Johnzz]

I think the Colllege Park condos are extermely popular and Aura wil be as well. As will be One bloor, Uptown and Crystal Blu because all of these are connected to the PATH underground.

Are Uptown and Crystal Blu actually connected to the PATH? I know they're close, but didn't think they were connected.

 

[KA1]

Johnzz,

I have sent you a PM.

 

[myfive]

that's interesting you believe the HST had any effect on sales.
considering it doesn't apply to resales and almost all pre-construction condos include it in their price, the HST would only apply to the service/transaction fees .

It's more about perception than actuality. Always important to distinguish between the 2. Most people didn't really understand the HST and what it would effect.

Edit added: I'm still trying to figure out the HST...lol. Made some rice crispy squares and the marshmellows were subject to HST but the rice crispies were not!

 

[myfive]

Are Uptown and Crystal Blu actually connected to the PATH? I know they're close, but didn't think they were connected.

Yes...that was the sales pitch i recall. They are right there actually. Wouldn' be a huge deal to connect them. CASA and BSN would have been more problematic since the subway stop lays between the buildings and the PATH.