CN Tower
Banned
Not For Sale, SOLD. Earlier in the year 2 units actually <$800 per sq. ft.
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
Not For Sale, SOLD. Earlier in the year 2 units actually <$800 per sq. ft.
cdr108
Senior Member
i see 2, but pricing is more than $800 PSF ... $1,000 and $1,200, respectively.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9719073&PidKey=1822553151
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9458056&PidKey=1392663969
not to be mean, but to compare some of the mainstream projects to 1ST is laughable
interested
Senior Member
Question: how do you compare Aura, shangrila, ritz, 4 seasons to this project?
CN Tower
Banned
Those are asking prices, not sold/closed prices. Ask a realtor to pull the sales in the building for you.
Sellers can ask whatever they like. Doesn't mean they will get it. Ask Conrad Black
Agreed re: comparisons between the mid-range projects and 1ST- there is no comparison. Hence my point that a sub $800 deal there tells you how outrageous it is for anyone to be paying such ridiculous prices at Yonge & Gerard. Also, the 'tallest building in Canada' title foreshadows serious problems if you ask me. Such vaunted claims rarely materialize as planned.
cdr108
Senior Member
i think shangri-la, ritz, four seasons are comparable price wise, but will attract a different type of buyer than 1ST.
Aura is not in the same league to any of the above; however, there might be some allure associated with being the tallest residential building in TO.
even with the executive suites, the description of their finishes is ambiguous so i highly doubt they are even luxury brands (ie. high-end euro appliances, poggenpohl, boffi, downsview kitchens, Dornbracht, grohe, hasgrohe, etc) like you have at Shangri-la.
Those are asking prices, not sold/closed prices. Ask a realtor to pull the sales in the building for you.
Sellers can ask whatever they like. Doesn't mean they will get it. Ask Conrad Black
i agree ... was just pointing out the details
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Johnzz
Active Member
Actually, this was a great time to buy. During the sub-prime housing crisis, I was in a strong position to negotiate substantial discounts with lots of free upgrades. At the time, most people here were screaming SELL! Nobody knows the future.
What's important for me is knowing both the risks and rewards. Just focusing on one will lead to underperformance. It's a balancing act and different for everyone. What I view as risky, others might view as risk free. The risk vs reward dynamic is also very fluid and always changing. It's a challenge keeping up with all variables.
Condo George
Active Member
We are not going down folks, recent weeks sold conditional activity has pounced on new listings in the downtown core, if we keep up this trend, new product will be eaten up. Also the rental demand has been very strong, investors are less prone to list for sale when a unit is rented. I know I am going against the negative message here, but this is my business day in day out and yes I invest in the market I sell to clients. Downtown condos are a very different breed with global demand, unlike freehold somewhere in the burbs, more end user etc....
KA1
Senior Member
Can you, please, post some numbes? Txs.
Condo George
Active Member
daveto
Active Member
CG, some would suggest that since your livelihood depends upon the market NOT going down, you are somewhat blinkered from considering that possibility.
The argument that "we're different here" is a common one the world over and is typically an indication that the speaker has no other factual rational to support their belief.
There is much "soft" evidence which can be presented to support your argument. (ie. anecdotes, immigration, Canada's bank ar better, close to this or that etc). These arguments are the same ones that pepper various US discussion boards from 2006-2008 about why their RE values were safe. Consider the reasoning given in the 7th post in the following discussion, where "Jstar 41", who works in NYC, boasts about his $500k of equity in his 4 New Jersey investment properties.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-jersey/12186-relocating-nyc-north-jersey-2.html. How much equity do you think he has now in 2010?
When one looks at the hard evidence, (avg income to avg price, cap rate from sale price vs rental, influence of mortgage rates, numerous empty lots for future building sites in dt Toronto), I think it becomes a little more difficult to support your position.
I began as a RE bull two years ago, and subsequently became a bear after reading various logically sound arguments on various boards. Over the past while I've tried to return the favour by contributing to the debate by posting factual evidence and links whenever possible. (perhaps search on my posts)
Absent further substantial gov't intervention, I can't see any scenario where there will not be Canada wide price decreases over the next 3 years (20%+). Perhaps we will indeed see substantial gov't intervention (perhaps currency debasement via quantitative easing as some suggest).
Despite my standing as a RE Bear, I certainly would enjoy reading any arguments you might have in support of stable or increased prices in DT Toronto RE, as I always like to challenge the soundness of my reasoning.
regards
dt
Condo George
Active Member
I respect your opinion. I understand the sediment is negative right now, we are experiencing a ton of supply due to 2006 / 2007 being very strong pre construction sales years. Then summer 2008 hit us hard with the global credit crisis and yes it was easy to be bearish at that time, I remember my broker telling me to sell when the TSX was at 7700, geez what a mistake that would have been. Everyone on Bay St was pushing the sell button being caught up in the wave of negativity. Similar to maybe the sediment today. Then in May 2009 no one seen it coming, no one was bullish on real estate, yes you included by your post, the strongest 9 months we have seen in years, a bounce that no one had called, the negative wave was saying we are going down just like the US and world markets, yes we were stagnant and preconstruction sales came to a halt for a year ( summer of 2008 to summer of 2009 ), but we never tanked 50 percent as some had suggested. Keep in mind for the year of slow sales numbers, this will translate into a dry season of supply in 2012. No one knows for sure where we are going, I believe immigraiton, 7.8% unemployment etc etc will continue to grow our downtown condo market, we will see.......we all have an opinion, even the guys in the industry that have been bearish on downtown condos for 10 yrs lol
detroitbootybass
Active Member
George - Though I can't share your optimism for the Canadian real estate market, I do wish you luck. I also hope you have a significant emergency fund for yourself and your family should you not be correct in your opinion.
interested
Senior Member
I agree that the market bounced far higher than anyone expected in 2009. that said, just because there was an irrational upswing (things are just not that great out there), doesn't mean people were wrong to hesitate and at least wait until there was clarity. I believe in a year prices will be close if not at that 2008 lows.
Like you say, no one knows which way the market is going for sure.
We all like to speculate and hopefully if right, we will be rewarded in our investments. the strongest 9 months was due to record low interest rates, a desire to beat an HST, and people I think looking at a place to put all the capital (money) to work somewhere and as you point out, one had to have a pretty strong gut to put it into the market as things were dropping. At least real estate is still there after a melt down, though perhaps worth considerably less.
Remember, now you have to consider 2 scenarios: Economy improves: Stimulus money is taken out of the system, results in tighter capital, increased interest rates, and less affordability. Economy does worse (just read headlines from today re GDP growth in the US), Bernancke keeps interest rates low but why would everything keep going up if in fact this environment is being artificially propped up. Canada's GDP grew 0.1% total in the last 2 months. the US with the stimulus went from I believe 6=% down to 2% or so this quarter, a sign things are not improving and in fact requiring the possibility of further stimulus. Remember, there has to ultimately be a day of reconning for all the printing of money governments around the world are doig.
So I would suggest that in the best case scenario one would hope foris for prices to hold but I believe this is wishful and now likely there is more downside risk than upside potential. I appreciate you sell real estate for a living. If you have been in for a long time, we have just had a great 10 years (with the brief meltdown). Now, likely, we will see some leaner times.
interested
Senior Member
Article in Your home section of the toronto Star.
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/reales...nadian-home-sales-forecast-to-decline-in-2010
States: house activity has fallen off much more drastically and CREA has downgraded its forecast for the second time this year and now predicts sales to be less than last year by 1.2%.
Others quoted say it is becoming rapidly a buyers market.
Expect prices to follow as demand continues to decrease.
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/reales...nadian-home-sales-forecast-to-decline-in-2010
States: house activity has fallen off much more drastically and CREA has downgraded its forecast for the second time this year and now predicts sales to be less than last year by 1.2%.
Others quoted say it is becoming rapidly a buyers market.
Expect prices to follow as demand continues to decrease.
cdr108
Senior Member
thanks interested ... i'm going to paste the article b/c sometimes links can go stale or disappear
straight from the horses mouth:
Canadian Home Sales Forecast to Decline in 2010
Abstract: Canadian Real Estate Association downgrades forecast for 2010 and now expects a 1.2 per cent drop in sales
Faced with the headwinds of a declining real estate market, the Canadian Real Estate Association has slashed its forecast for a second time this year.
National sales activity is now estimated to hit 459,600 units in 2010, representing a decline of 1.2 per cent, the association said Friday.
In June, the association said sales were expected to be up by 5.5 per cent this year. That had already been downgraded from a far more bullish forecast of an increase of 13.3 per cent over 2009 figures.
“Weaker than expected activity during the crucial spring home buying seasons in Canada’s four most active provincial markets prompted the revision,” said CREA.
“The decline is consistent with the exhaustion of pent-up demand from deferred purchases during the economic recession, and sales having been pulled forward into early 2010 due to changes in mortgage regulations.”
Lower sales will spill over into 2011, with weaker growth and consumer spending contributing to a decline of 7.3 per cent over 2010 figures, or 426,100 units, said CREA.
“Resale markets have slowed drastically,” said housing economist Will Dunning. “The market has very rapidly left its seller’s market condition and is on its way to a buyer’s market.”
Average prices will remain stable, according to CREA chief economist Gregory Klump. Prices are expected to rise by 3.5 per cent by the end of 2010 to $331,600. In 2011, prices are expected to decline by 0.9 per cent to $328,600.
“Pricing momentum will lose steam due to rising competition among current homeowners looking to trade up,” said Klump.
Some of that increase is due to less first time home buying activity, meaning more expensive move up homes are being sold this year, skewing average prices slightly upward, said CREA.
CREA’s new forecasts bring the association more in line with other analysts who have dramatically downgraded their own reports.
In May, the TD Bank said prices would fall in 2011 after earlier forecasting they would rise.
And last month the CIBC said home prices were overvalued by as much as 14 per cent. However, other analysts have said that prices are overvalued by as much as 25 per cent.
“The hangover from accelerated home purchases earlier this year is expected to persist over the rest of the year,” said Klump. “But positive economic and job market trends bode well for home price stability.”
In Ontario, sales will still go above 2009 figures by 2.9 per cent, but take a 8.2 per cent hit next year as the market quickly decelerates, according to the forecast.