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Baby, we got a bubble!?

JayBee said:
Is MLS really having issues moving units? Had an opportunity to invest there but decided against it. Perhaps I made a good move.
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i don't believe the units are from the developer, who probably sold out in the heydays of 2006-2008, but are assignments by specuvestors.
odds are anyone that bought here in 2006-2007 has made profit on paper and if they sold it for $450-500 PSF, then someone may consider purchasing here. but as it stands, i think i see people asking ~$600 PSF
 
KA1 said:
Please do me a favour.

Next time, when you quote prices in the central core, see if you can increase the range to $ 550 - $ 700.

At $ 700 sq. ft, I will breakeven on my investment in a unit in AURA.
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I should have specified that I am talking mid range buildings, not Aura exec floors that you are on. that is a different and higher price.
 
KA1 said:
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/reales...na3-things-will-be-great-when-you-re-downtown

Link to an article about DNA 3 in Saturday's The Star. Asking prices appear to be reasonsalble reflecting the current market conditions.
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Their prices are actually decent, although the smallest and cheapest units are 270 sq. feet and nothing listed is more than 931 sq feet, but still around the $475/ft range to start which ain't bad considering DNA1 and 2 are getting $550 (although DNA2 is a vastly inferior building - no gas, 8 ft ceilings on first 6 floors). I do think, however, that you'll be able to buy at DNA3 for less than what their VIP prices were in about 4 months. This turnaround isn't going to fix itself an they were 6 months too late to really take advantage of the market and will lose a lot of money because of it. New condo sales are tanking and will only get worse as so much resale comes onboard without the hassle of HST.

interested said:
Given the location is quite far West, much further than even Liberty Village which is being sold at $460 to $500/sq. ft range as well (see King West Life condos) and Bliss etc, I don't know that this is suprising. $550$650 seems to be the central core: $500-600 most of King West (nearer Bathhurst/Spadina) and $450-550/sq. ft further West. these buildings if I am not mistaken are just about 1-2 km EAst from Palace Peir but I may be wrong on this which is really quite far West and out of the "core" unless I am thinking of the wrong development.
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You might be thinking of the wrong development as the DNA complexes are directly across the train tracks, north of Liberty Village and as stated above do re-sell in the $550 range. They're about 1 km west of Bathurst.
 
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You might be thinking of the wrong development as the DNA complexes are directly across the train tracks, north of Liberty Village and as stated above do re-sell in the $550 range. They're about 1 km west of Bathurst.[/QUOTE]

Is it directly North of Liberty Village. I was thinking DNA is the complex across from Park Lake on the North side of the QEW. Or is that NXT?
 
Simuls,
How does DNA compare in your mind to King West Life in Liberty Village. Is it better, worse, or the same since King West Life is asking about $460/sq. ft-$500/sq. ft now.

Can you as well expand on your comment that new sales of condos are tanking? It is my feeling that investors will go largely to sleep and first time buyers have largely bought so this would be a logical conclusion but do you have some concrete examples of new developments that are not selling particularly well (at least in your view)?

Thanks.
 
Spoke with an agent today....clientele has really dropped off. At least we'll see pre-construction pricing drop because it was getting out of hand. Pre-construction should not be more than resale.
 
JayBee said:
Spoke with an agent today....clientele has really dropped off. At least we'll see pre-construction pricing drop because it was getting out of hand. Pre-construction should not be more than resale.
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was the agent specific to DNA3 or just a RE agent in general?
i've spoken to a few also and they've indicated that the number of showings during the weekdays have dropped dramatically; and the volume of people going through open houses have also diminished.

there was also concern that sellers are stuck with the mindframe that they can still command peak prices (sometimes even more) and should be adjusting prices downward by 10% if they want to see activity/sale, etc.
 
cdr108 said:
was the agent specific to DNA3 or just a RE agent in general?
i've spoken to a few also and they've indicated that the number of showings during the weekdays have dropped dramatically; and the volume of people going through open houses have also diminished.

there was also concern that sellers are stuck with the mindframe that they can still command peak prices (sometimes even more) and should be adjusting prices downward by 10% if they want to see activity/sale, etc.
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This is common. People are very quick to accept a forever rising market but very slow to react to a falling one. It is easy to climb up the horse but tough to get down.

I noticed there were a few open houses as I was driving in our neighbourhood this afternoon and no cars there or perhaps 1.

I have also been told by an agent I know that things have slowed dramatically in the past 1-2 months and are very quiet now. Summer is quiet especially the last 2 weeks of July and 1st 2 of August as peak holiday season. However, I do not believe there will be a dramatic pick up this fall. this is in fact what alot have predicted, that sales for the latter part of the year were drawn forward.
 
cdr108 said:
was the agent specific to DNA3 or just a RE agent in general?
i've spoken to a few also and they've indicated that the number of showings during the weekdays have dropped dramatically; and the volume of people going through open houses have also diminished.

there was also concern that sellers are stuck with the mindframe that they can still command peak prices (sometimes even more) and should be adjusting prices downward by 10% if they want to see activity/sale, etc.
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In general... Which is not surprising at all given the amount of product that continues to flood the market.
 
interested said:
Is it directly North of Liberty Village. I was thinking DNA is the complex across from Park Lake on the North side of the QEW. Or is that NXT?
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You're thinking of NXT. DNA is directly on King West at Shaw (1 block west of Strachan) and about 4 km closer to downtown than NXT.

interested said:
How does DNA compare in your mind to King West Life in Liberty Village. Is it better, worse, or the same since King West Life is asking about $460/sq. ft-$500/sq. ft now.

Can you as well expand on your comment that new sales of condos are tanking? It is my feeling that investors will go largely to sleep and first time buyers have largely bought so this would be a logical conclusion but do you have some concrete examples of new developments that are not selling particularly well (at least in your view)?
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I think certain units at King West Life are really great and their original price point was excellent. That being said, they'll be about 3 years behind when they finally finish. I don't think you can compare the quality of Plazacorp to Canderel Stoneridge, Canderel is simply much better if you look at their projects.

The Mercer street condos have shuttered, I believe that CanAlfa is rethinking its fall launch of Liberty Central and from others I've spoken with and just anecdotal evidence of my own walking through empty sales centres I'd say there's been an absolutely dramatic drop. It's also why I think DNA3 is launching to the public in a couple months and not now(the first 10 floors of the first building are pretty much sold out though), even though their sales centre is completely finished. My guess is they're hoping that fall will bring a rebound - one I really don't think is coming. Just in August, Liberty Towers and Vibe will start to occupy and already there are multiple units available on MLS and that's just in the immediate area. I'm going to go back to another thread I started about condo developments finishing and update it so we can get a feeling for how much more inventory is to come online in the core. It's a lot and that recent sale of a subph in cityplace at $410/ft is telling because that really low even for Cityplace and especially for a subph.
 
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simuls said:
You're thinking of NXT. DNA is directly on King West at Shaw (1 block west of Strachan) and about 4 km closer to downtown than NXT.



I think certain units at King West Life are really great and their original price point was excellent. That being said, they'll be about 3 years behind when they finally finish. I don't think you can compare the quality of Plazacorp to Canderel Stoneridge, Canderel is simply much better if you look at their projects.

The Mercer street condos have shuttered, I believe that CanAlfa is rethinking its fall launch of Liberty Central and from others I've spoken with and just anecdotal evidence of my own walking through empty sales centres I'd say there's been an absolutely dramatic drop. It's also why I think DNA3 is launching to the public in a couple months and not now(the first 10 floors of the first building are pretty much sold out though), even though their sales centre is completely finished. My guess is they're hoping that fall will bring a rebound - one I really don't think is coming. Just in August, Liberty Towers and Vibe will start to occupy and already there are multiple units available on MLS and that's just in the immediate area. I'm going to go back to another thread I started about condo developments finishing and update it so we can get a feeling for how much more inventory is to come online in the core. It's a lot and that recent sale of a subph in cityplace at $410/ft is telling because that really low even for Cityplace and especially for a subph.
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thank you for the detailed insight.
I actually purchased a true small (not one of the SOHO style which I consider a glorified 1 bedroom den)2 bedroom 2 bathroom at $410/foot on the 12 th floor west view phase 1 with 90-100 sq. ft balcony including parking and locker. the view should be unobstructed as the police station is just west of us and that is a 2 story building that goes for about 400 feet in length. Beyond that will be a building but quite far away.
Family will likely use it.
We looked at Cityplace and just did not appeal. I think the problem with the Cityplace subpenthouse is that with a large unit and that price point other buildings open up. It is a good price for the space but if I had that money, I would not be looking at City Place as i believe this suite was $670,000 (vs. low $300's) that I bought at.

Is DNA in your view worth $140/sq. ft more than KWL given that it is about $550/sq. ft. as I understand?

I am actually quite impressed with workmanship at Plazacorp and also with what is offered as standard. In fact, everything (granite, marble, engineered hardwood, fireplace are all standard).

Thanks again for the insight
 
Meh, I really don't think the sale of the Cityplace unit is indicative of the market "tanking". There are still units that are selling for 500-600+ psf. My buddy has a sub penthouse unit at Cityplace and it's nothing special. The only difference is the ceilings are 9 ft. He did some work to it, but when he bought it the unit was wall to wall carpeting, basic finishes. We have no idea what the Cityplace unit looked like or what the seller's situation was.

I think once we start seeing a number of units selling for 400psf across the boards then we'll get a better idea of where things are heading.

For the record, a lot of these projects launching now...I would not be surprised if a large number of them stall or are canned altogether. Developers will see shortly that they can't charge $600psf for a shoebox anymore. Think we'll start to see assignments pick up.
 
Exodus posted today on the Aura projects thread that "price increases on the way at Aura" in the fall. I believe he is quoting the developer.
Interesting that while it is usual as the building erects to increase the price, the builder feels he can state this for the fall given that alot of us feel the market is weakening and will drop in the fall. Of course he does not have to raise prices or may do an insignificant increase (eg. $5000 on $800,000 will hardly matter I guess) but I find it interesting he would say this. Maybe it is to spark some people on the fence to act before things do downturn if this is in fact what ends up happening.
 
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