Already be done. Finito. Kaput. Ya. When the calendar turned to July 1 the air was out, actually before. So this is my point. Why the obsession with raising rates still? Answer....this baby is hummin' more than you or i know, and that is bullish. I'd still rather see the rates remain unchanged, but if they are still seeing a need, and we assume they know what they are doing, then i guess we need it. But if they do, who are you or anybody to start saying we need to be worried about the U.S. and Europe and Asia...i mean, that is his job...and as i posted earlier, if he is pouring through all the info and still says we need a rate hike, then it's silly to say we have a 2 month lag to the U.S. and we are in for a hurtin'.
Not trying to be a pain here, but just sayin', let the experts do their job and if they say we need a rate hike, and they know what they are doin' then peoples worries are unfounded.
Now if you want to argue they don't know what they're doing.......i ok with that but let's here that. I'm certainly questioning the need for a rate hike now...but i don't see all the info they do.
To responds to your points. The market actually peaked in Dec 2009. There is a lag between when it is clear that a market peak occurs and when people realize it occurs. It is judeged in hindsite.
Monetary policy has alot more to do than just with housing. This is one element, my Five, but just that, one element of many which go into the calculation of leading indicators.
As well, decisions made today take about a year to filter through so Mark Carney and the BOC are looking forward. Remember, their main mandate is to control inflation. If he sees any indication of that, he has to react. Things were looking a bit better 2-3 months ago and there were some inflationary signs in the economy and hence Mark Carney's decision to move. Remember, we are still in very easy monetary policy even if rates go up 1%. I would suggest a read of the news and the points I brought up about the US,Europe and China have shown that the situation has worsened from just 3 months ago, or at least are not as rosy.
My comments about US, Europe and Asia are simply observatory in nature. You are correct that Mark Carney has to look at the global picture and figure out how/what to do with Canada in the big picture environment. My point is that all these places around him are experiencing some problems and this will weigh on his decisions going forward. Once he made the decision however to increase, if he just does one increase and nothing further, given that the effects are seen 1 year down the road, he does look a bit indecisive if he totally stops and the market then looks and asks if he knows what he is doing and that adds to uncertainty.
Central Bankers are human and certainly have made a lot of bad decisions and will continue to do so. They make however some very good ones as well. They can only evaluate data and do what they can.
That said, remember, it is not Mark Carney's problem if you or I or other investors make or lose money on our real estate purchases individually. His concern is to provide a stable enviroment in which to invest for Canada without more than their targeted 2% inflation. Incidently, we can talk about the 2% inflation and how that is calculated if you like but real inflation is in fact far higher than reported. The core CPI excludes volatile components such as gas and food. Well, I don't know about others on this forum but when I can stop driving and eating, then these components won't matter. This represents a very significant amount of our family's expenses so saying inflation is low is a bit of a misnomer.
As well, as for experts doing their job. Look what happened in 2008. Ahhh, maybe they can get it wrong. This should never be a reason for others to critically evaluate and formulate an opinion. That is what this forum is about. Expressing ideas and opinions and hopefully we are all the wiser for it. You can still rely on the experts if you choose at the end of the day. I just think one should make informed decisions and not follow blindly because "an expert says so".
Finally, alot of experts have vested interests in certain outcomes. This would have to call into question their objectivity and conclusions. There is no substitute for critical judgement. Then, if you still get it wrong, at least you made as good an informed decision as one could at the time.
Besides, this is a forum for discussion. I am simply providing reasons as to why I have a certain point of view as are others. This surely must be more constructive than just saying things will crash or things will go up up up with no reasoning behind it.
Sorry for the long winded answer.
