Most likely.
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44th Canadian Federal Election
- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
Richard White
Senior Member
They lose all their seats and Annamie Paul gets unceremoniously turfed on election night.
Northern Light
Superstar
Regional/riding polls suggest that May is quite solid in her seat on Vancouver Island.
The other Green out there is leading.
The Greens are in a statistical tie for the lead in Kitchener Centre.
So while anything is possible, a wipe out seems unlikely.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Wild that the Greens could gain a new seat with their popular vote down 50%.
Typical first past the post.
Typical first past the post.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
She always looks so miserable. And why did she take the Party from its enviro focus to becoming the Woke party? If the GP was advocating for a Climate Tariff they'd have my vote.
Northern Light
Superstar
Of course, even at 3% of the vote, they would have 10 seats in a proportional system.
I was totally forgetting Vancouver.
Northern Light
Superstar
In a separate note:
The rather popular premier of Quebec, especially outside Montreal, has endorsed the Conservatives..........
Wonder what impact that may have?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The GP might keep Vancouver, but the rest is toast.
adma
Superstar
If it's Kitchener Centre, it'd be like a Jenica-Atwin-in-reverse circumstance, i.e. Mike Morrice positioning himself as a catchbasin for wayward Liberal votes...
Jonny5
Senior Member
CBC's poll average tracker has the Liberals back on top for popular vote. This is mostly not from the Liberals moving up, though they are a bit up from their lows, but from the Conservatives going down sharply.
Northern Light
Superstar
A tweet below that tells us:
a) Why we should always treat polling data with suspicion
b) The Libs may be in more trouble than the polls show (small sample size makes this difficult to assess)
From this thread:
a) Why we should always treat polling data with suspicion
b) The Libs may be in more trouble than the polls show (small sample size makes this difficult to assess)
From this thread:
Jonny5
Senior Member
What exactly is this "reverse engineering" showing? These numbers add up only to 93%, and the Liberal support at 20% is not consistent with any polling.
There's nothing worse than Poll Fandom Twitter which doesn't really know how statistics work, or worse, has a little knowledge of how it works.
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Northern Light
Superstar
I wasn't 100% clear either, but I was thinking he was trying to show how those who voted had voted.
Towered
Senior Member
My gut feeling is we'll get a very weak and unstable Liberal minority, with only a couple of seats more than the CPC. The NDP will be salivating over such a result.