picard102
Senior Member
Arizona, Florida and Iowa are the only ones out of all those blue projected for republican wins.
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2024 United States presidential election
- Thread starter Jonny5
- Start date
christiesplits
Senior Member
Based purely on vibes (ok, and some early exit polls), I think it'll be a slim Harris victory.
evandyk
Senior Member
Easy to cook up a a scenario where Harris wins the popular vote by ~2% and loses the election.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Disagree, sadly. True or not the perception that Biden-Harris failed to stem the migrant horde and failed on the economy is going to kill the chances of Harris-Walz.
afransen
Senior Member
I had a feeling going into tonight that Harris might outperform. Sadly that was not the case and it is looking like a Trump victory barring a very unusual outcome in the blue wall (which could in itself be quite dangerous). The one hope for some sense of normality is if the Dems take the House. A significant GOP Senate majority seems probable, which could lead to some pretty wild policymaking in the US (Bobby Kennedy in charge of Health and Human Services?).
It's a bad night for Ukraine and very good night for Putin.
It's a bad night for Ukraine and very good night for Putin.
ShonTron
Moderator
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It’s looking like the Republicans take the House, the Senate, and the White House.
You’re going to see a christofacist SCOTUS, a vindicated Musk, an emboldened Putin, and an unleashed Netanyahu.
It’s feeling like the darkest timeline.
You’re going to see a christofacist SCOTUS, a vindicated Musk, an emboldened Putin, and an unleashed Netanyahu.
It’s feeling like the darkest timeline.
jje1000
Senior Member
The Kamala Kollapse is complete, barring any 11th hour event.
This likely marks an era of epic realignment in US politics as politics continue to rearrange themselves around class and the old Democrat racial and Republican Neocon machines break down.
Latinos in key states broke out for Trump in number, and surpassed the black vote. Asians and other minorities (even Muslims!) are now possibly within realignment range, and it's likely that a Trump presidency may set the stage for a Vance presidency that will complete the transformation of the Republicans away from its 1980s-2010s-era Neocon country-club era (the Cheneys will likely find a home among the Democrats!)- the Tea Party populists may ultimately have the last laugh.
Mainstream media continues to shrink in influence and consensus-building capacity, while Elon buying Twitter is likely going to be seen as the single most consequential thing a private citizen has done in the US for decades.
Ironically, I think that if Biden had stayed on, he might have won. But oh well...
But more importantly, this election also likely finally closes the book on the Obama era, and I think that 2028 will feature a clean bench of candidates from the Democrat side (Newsom, anyone?).
And of course we Canadians and Europeans will get few days to ignore the crises in our countries and poke fun at the Americans lol
The US has been done with Ukraine for awhile already.
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T3G
Senior Member
At this point the Democrats should disband. How inept do you have to be to lose to that foul redneck twice?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
It’s all on Biden. He ran in 2020 as a transition candidate, meaning he would not run for a second term, giving the Democrat party the time to do a proper competitive convention. But instead Biden overstayed his welcome, totally failed on preventing the migrant invasion, surrendered to increasingly polarizing woke issues, and then a few months from the election bails, and essentially appoints the unpopular and 2020 convention failure, Harris.
When the pogroms against illegals begin in January and ICE is rounding up the Dreamers and the undocumented into proverbial cattle cars bound for the southern border Ottawa had better be prepared for the horde to try to enter Canada.
If the Republicans also take both chambers of Congress we should expect much of Project 2025 to be put in place.
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
At least it wasn't a "messy" election with in between results.
AoD
AoD
Jonny5
Senior Member
Picking Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro as VP also seems to have been a tactical error.
Richard White
Senior Member
This is bad all around but also a blessing.
Because the GOP got the senate, presidency and house they are can no longer say the democrats stopped them from doing things.
This also means that when they screw up badly, the blame is solely on them.
For Canada the dollar will likely take a hit. I expect the next interest rate drop to be put on hold with a potential increase in rates.
With all of Trump's America centric policies, the Bank of Canada will need to do something to save the dollar. That means attracting foreign money by raising rates.
Because the GOP got the senate, presidency and house they are can no longer say the democrats stopped them from doing things.
This also means that when they screw up badly, the blame is solely on them.
For Canada the dollar will likely take a hit. I expect the next interest rate drop to be put on hold with a potential increase in rates.
With all of Trump's America centric policies, the Bank of Canada will need to do something to save the dollar. That means attracting foreign money by raising rates.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I expect Trump will strongly consider outright canceling free trade with Mexico and renegotiating a separate FTA with Canada. If our PM (presumably Pollievre) can negotiate well on our behalf this may see Canadian exports to the US increase and help the dollar.
jje1000
Senior Member
This was uniquely an election with essentially two incumbents candidates.
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Richard White
Senior Member
If past history is any indication this won't happen.
Trump is all about MAGA and putting America first.
He has also mentioned heavy tarriffs on imports to the US in the past.
If this was any other country I'd agree with you but the US is super polarized.