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2024 United States presidential election

EADs aren't easy to get.

While I was in California, my wife had an EAD. This was based on the fact that Canada had reciprocity with the US for spouses of military personnel working here. There were other countries that did not, and their spouses didn't get EADs.

While I was there too, the coup attempt happened in Turkey and about 25 Turkish officers were too scared to return home and claimed asylum. Some didn't get EADs for a year. They lived off savings and charity. For many who did, it still took 6 months.
 
Really interesting to see how far apart the Democratic intelligentsia is from actual voters on issues. This blogger aggregated various polls to look at bet support for various Democratic positions. Pretty clear the Democratic brand is going to be toxic for any candidate with this much off side:

blog_polls_culture-3.jpg


jabberwocking.com

Raw data: What the American public thinks of culture war issues - Kevin Drum

How big an impact did culture war issues have on Donald Trump winning the election? Here is recent public polling on a variety of hot button issues: On the old warhorses of guns and abortion, liberals have long held an edge. Large majorities say abortion should be generally legal vs. generally...
jabberwocking.com jabberwocking.com
 
Northern Light said:
I think that's too far the other way.

A great deal of 'the left' in the U.S, here, or anywhere else absolutely shames people, name calls, and denigrates if someone does not share their beliefs.
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Another great example to add to your list is how, as COVID progressively dragged on and the lockdowns and restrictions became harder and harder for people to handle psychologically, every time someone said so, they were piled on by people who said that our ancestors survived the world wars, the Great Depression, the Spanish Flu, the Black Death, whatever, and how the people of today were weaklings who couldn't handle the faintest bit of adversity.

It was basically the old right wing "today's generation are all snowflakes", except weaponized by leftists instead. Without advocating to have thrown everything wide open at every complaint - unless you were a hermit who eschewed all human contact, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see why two years of highly restrictive socializing, no travel, no events, no anything that made life worth living was psychologically taxing on an increasingly larger portion of the populace, but online, these cries were often met without a shred of empathy or understanding. Empathy can't alter reality, but it can make it easier to handle. As a leftist, the whole experience really soured me on political discourse for a long time.

With that said, dismissing all Trump voters as bigots and racists does not strike me as a winning strategy for the Democrats, but if they didn't learn their lesson after the spectacular failure that was 2016, I am beginning to suspect they never will.
 
kEiThZ said:
Really interesting to see how far apart the Democratic intelligentsia is from actual voters on issues.
Click to expand...
The sooner Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Wasserman Schultz and the other establishment Dems who think they know best are gone, the sooner the party can prepare for 2028 and 2032.

Imagine the difference if in autumn 2023, Joe Biden announces that he’s not running for a second term, AND that a truly open convention contest is held in early 2024, where duds like Harris would have been culled on the first ballot.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
The sooner Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Wasserman Schultz and the other establishment Dems who think they know best are gone, the sooner the party can prepare for 2028 and 2032.
Click to expand...

I dunno. They might actually be holding back the flood of crazy. Indeed, there's a lot of calls from the far left to double down on identity politics, and now they are even trying to frame this stuff as working class issues. So so soooo out of touch.

In 2032, the Democrats are absolutely toast. The 2030 census is on track for -4 from California and +4 for Texas and Florida each. Electoral College votes are moving from Blue and Swing states to Red states. Tolerating NIMBYism in Blue States will have massive consequences.

Admiral Beez said:
Imagine the difference if in autumn 2023, Joe Biden announces that he’s not running for a second term, AND that a truly open convention contest is held in early 2024, where duds like Harris would have been culled on the first ballot.
Click to expand...

He really should have dropped out after the 2022 midterms and started the primary process. At that point, he could have honestly said he was a transitionary President and even Harris would have had more room to separate herself from him. But, having power is addictive. And how many people are best placed to self-assess. Especially the one guy who actually beat Trump?
 
My gut feeling is that the next Democratic presidential nominee will likely be male, Latino, and probably from a military background.
 
jje1000 said:
My gut feeling is that the next Democratic presidential nominee will likely be male, Latino, and probably from a military background.
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Male for sure. Latino? Hard to say given the split between Latinos and Democrats these days. Military background? Iffy.

The real question is whether a candidate like Bill Clinton (Southern white Baptist straight male) could win in today's Democratic party. As long as their discourse is dominated by guys like Bernie Sanders and the Squad, they are hooped with the general electorate. But AOC taking her pronouns of Twitter is probably a sign they are starting to understand how far out of touch they are.
 
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