2024 Mississauga Mayoral Byelection Transit Plans

[ARG1]

The planned BRT on Dundas to Kipling station is more than good enough for an east-west rapid transit line in Mississauga - anything more than that would be complete overkill. Enough with fantasy LRT ideas, never mind subways.

My only gripe is that unless something has changed, the current phase of the DSBRT only has the infrastructure going between Etobicoke and Confederation Parkway, which I wouldn't consider more than good enough. I don't know whether or not there is a timeline for when the remainder to at least the 403, and east to Kipling will be built.

 

[allengeorge]

The biggest transit news of 2024 so far! The best description of what is happening imo is this letter from Ontario's Transport Minister to the Federal one, asking the Feds to pay 50%. But yes, Milton TWAD is happening, if the cash is provided.

Ok - so, this old news..

Basically the federal government said “we’ll give 500M if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement.”. Ontario didn’t sign.

Almost a year later the province came back and said “Jokes! We’ll put up 3.2B if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement”. The feds aren’t signing any time soon (I doubt they will).

Happy to be proven wrong though!

 

[superior_chromatic]

I guess you forgot that ML was looking at taking the Hurontario Line to Kipling during the EA as well as a Dundas yard east of Hurontario until Hydro One Kill the idea of having the Bus/LRT under their Corridor.

Interesting. Could you go into a bit more detail about this? Why was Hydro One opposed to running the LRT in its corridor? And does this mean that transit under hydro corridors (a la GO-ALRT) is a non-starter elsewhere, or is this opposition specific to this alignment?

 

[drum118]

My only gripe is that unless something has changed, the current phase of the DSBRT only has the infrastructure going between Etobicoke and Confederation Parkway, which I wouldn't consider more than good enough. I don't know whether or not there is a timeline for when the remainder to at least the 403, and east to Kipling will be built.

Have you looked at the density from Confederation to Hwy403 on Dundas firsthand and does that include riding the buses??

There are three large development proposals between Confederation that will support a true BRT to Mavis. Other than that, nothing is plan for on Dundas St west of Mavis to support to support a true BRT there and why an express/Light BRT is plan for there.

Ridership falls badly after Mississauga Rd and why bus service to Oakville die.

There is no timeline for the missing 403 section with some talk about doing it when the MCC is to be looked at. The section to Kipling is dead as MTO will not allow the existing lands to be used for anything else other than traffic. For the amount of service on Eglinton from Renforth to the 427 doesn't justify the cost of building an ROW on it with traffic having no impact on service in the first place.

As for the Milton Line, let's see what the March Budget has to say about building the long overdue third track, let alone a fourth one. I am sure Ford will call for a higher cost so the feds can pick up the lion share of building the expansion in the end if they will do it.

 

[sixrings]

Ok - so, this old news..

Basically the federal government said “we’ll give 500M if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement.”. Ontario didn’t sign.

Almost a year later the province came back and said “Jokes! We’ll put up 3.2B if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement”. The feds aren’t signing any time soon (I doubt they will).

Happy to be proven wrong though!

this is correct... this is exactly what the government worker told me to my face who knew both Omar and Doug professionally. The person laughed that this was being taken seriously. "It isn't happening." I want to believe this person is wrong but I wouldn't bet anything against them.

 

[ARG1]

Have you looked at the density from Confederation to Hwy403 on Dundas firsthand and does that include riding the buses??

There are three large development proposals between Confederation that will support a true BRT to Mavis. Other than that, nothing is plan for on Dundas St west of Mavis to support to support a true BRT there and why an express/Light BRT is plan for there.

Ridership falls badly after Mississauga Rd and why bus service to Oakville die.

There is no timeline for the missing 403 section with some talk about doing it when the MCC is to be looked at. The section to Kipling is dead as MTO will not allow the existing lands to be used for anything else other than traffic. For the amount of service on Eglinton from Renforth to the 427 doesn't justify the cost of building an ROW on it with traffic having no impact on service in the first place.

As for the Milton Line, let's see what the March Budget has to say about building the long overdue third track, let alone a fourth one. I am sure Ford will call for a higher cost so the feds can pick up the lion share of building the expansion in the end if they will do it.

I don't want to sound aggressive, but you have to keep in mind this is well within the UTM zone of influence. What you have is a bunch of students who would absolutely enjoy not having to deal with the traffic on their way to class. I agree with the density argument in regards to LRT and Metros, but we're talking about significantly cheaper bus upgrades here.

Regardless though, that doesn't answer the question on what's going on with the Toronto section of the project. Are there any timelines available for when at least that will happen?

 

[drum118]

Interesting. Could you go into a bit more detail about this? Why was Hydro One opposed to running the LRT in its corridor? And does this mean that transit under hydro corridors (a la GO-ALRT) is a non-starter elsewhere, or is this opposition specific to this alignment?

Hydro One opposed the LRT and the terminal under their system as they wanted to protect the land for future expansion and use.

During the Hurontario EA, ML started to talk about the Dundas LRT as well a yard for it but die when Hydro said no to where the station and terminal where to be. That is why the 7-minute walk exist between the two terminals today as well TTC buses using Ackland to/from Kipling.

 

[drum118]

I don't want to sound aggressive, but you have to keep in mind this is well within the UTM zone of influence. What you have is a bunch of students who would absolutely enjoy not having to deal with the traffic on their way to class. I agree with the density argument in regards to LRT and Metros, but we're talking about significantly cheaper bus upgrades here.

Regardless though, that doesn't answer the question on what's going on with the Toronto section of the project. Are there any timelines available for when at least that will happen?

As for UTM students as well other university/college students, they are getting a free ride with the cheap fare they are pay compared to what I and others had to pay going to university. If it weren't for the students, bus service on Dundas would be poor west of Erindale Station as well as the lack of the 110 service, especially to Clarkson GO Station, that should be scrapped due to poor ridership. Even the service east of Hurontario would see higher headway than today regardless of whether it needs to be better now. or yesterday.

You also got students going to Sheridan College in Mississauga and Brampton that has call for better bus service on various routes

I have heard the issues surrounding UTM like buses are full, are late, don't show up at all, it takes too long to get to/from it, poor service on the weekend and the list goes on. Those who pay taxes and need to get to/from work get some benefits in better service with the students using the system and they are the ones who pay for the free ride on the system by the students in the first place,

At this point of time, ML is talking to TTC and the City on the BRT ROW on Dundas as it will help various TTC routes, but it will affect TTC riders who may have a longer walk to a stop. There is no timeline for the Toronto section nor funding of it as far as I know.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Ok - so, this old news..

Basically the federal government said “we’ll give 500M if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement.”. Ontario didn’t sign.

Almost a year later the province came back and said “Jokes! We’ll put up 3.2B if there’s a 50/50 cost-sharing agreement”. The feds aren’t signing any time soon (I doubt they will).

Happy to be proven wrong though!

If you read into the announcement, lots of new stuff which makes this more real. First is a deal with CPKC being communicated publicly for the first time. Second is specifying Metrolinx is going with a dedicated passenger corridor, the first time we’ve heard this (versus simply a 3rd shared track). Third the public communication of a IBC for Milton and specific ridership numbers is new. And finally the price tag is new (Omar essentially made up a price in his announcement). The details of why it is so high have been discussed at length throughout UT so won’t repeat here.

 

[afransen]

I'm maybe less pessimistic than sixrings/his contact. It may be that there is no serious intent right now on both levels of government to proceed with this at this time, but things change, and Mississauga/Milton are swing seats. The big change is that there is a solution that CPKC is apparently happy with and the Overton window is moving beyond "this is impossible, CP doesn't want it/we need to spend $40B on the 'missing link' and convince CP and CN to go along with that plan'. Now that there is a feasible solution and it 'only' costs $6B, which is well within the range of transit expansion bones that have been thrown to Scarborough, Richmond Hill and Vaughan (Line 1 and 2 extensions), I think there is a higher chance of politicians in office or opposition embracing this idea for political advantage. Milton Line expansion benefits a much larger area/number of seats for a lower price tag than its precedents.

 

[jys]

As for UTM students as well other university/college students, they are getting a free ride with the cheap fare they are pay compared to what I and others had to pay going to university. If it weren't for the students, bus service on Dundas would be poor west of Erindale Station as well as the lack of the 110 service, especially to Clarkson GO Station, that should be scrapped due to poor ridership. Even the service east of Hurontario would see higher headway than today regardless of whether it needs to be better now. or yesterday.

You also got students going to Sheridan College in Mississauga and Brampton that has call for better bus service on various routes

I have heard the issues surrounding UTM like buses are full, are late, don't show up at all, it takes too long to get to/from it, poor service on the weekend and the list goes on. Those who pay taxes and need to get to/from work get some benefits in better service with the students using the system and they are the ones who pay for the free ride on the system by the students in the first place,

At this point of time, ML is talking to TTC and the City on the BRT ROW on Dundas as it will help various TTC routes, but it will affect TTC riders who may have a longer walk to a stop. There is no timeline for the Toronto section nor funding of it as far as I know.

Based on my (albeit anecdotal) experience during rush-hour, 110 south of UTM is well-patronized (in both directions). Not packed with standees, but certainly not empty. About the level where all seats are taken. The data compiled by @MiExpress based on October 2022 ridership numbers appears to support this.

 

[sixrings]

I'm maybe less pessimistic than sixrings/his contact. It may be that there is no serious intent right now on both levels of government to proceed with this at this time, but things change, and Mississauga/Milton are swing seats. The big change is that there is a solution that CPKC is apparently happy with and the Overton window is moving beyond "this is impossible, CP doesn't want it/we need to spend $40B on the 'missing link' and convince CP and CN to go along with that plan'. Now that there is a feasible solution and it 'only' costs $6B, which is well within the range of transit expansion bones that have been thrown to Scarborough, Richmond Hill and Vaughan (Line 1 and 2 extensions), I think there is a higher chance of politicians in office or opposition embracing this idea for political advantage. Milton Line expansion benefits a much larger area/number of seats for a lower price tag than its precedents.

Well this is the thing... Things can change and public pressure may make it happen even though Mississauga people dont seem to be noise makers. But I was assured that the money wouldn't be flowing from this prime ministers office until at minimum 2029. The person said they believed Doug didn't want to pay for it either but knew the feds wouldn't which would let him off the bill and make him look like he tried which should take votes away from Bonnie. Now the person isn't exactly confident that this prime minister will be around even in the next election so there's that change we could speculate on but I will be skeptical a conservative prime minister will have this at the top of his to do list.

I should note that Omar really did want to help fund the Milton GO line. But at a certain cost. This has escalated well past what they would have been comfortable with. Also should be noted that Omar and Bonnie had multiple conversations but basically when Omar called Ford there was an abrupt dial tone. Ford had zero interest real or not real until Bonnie became the new Liberal leader at which time Ford suddenly has real or not real interest. You decide.

 

[afransen]

Well this is the thing... Things can change and public pressure may make it happen even though Mississauga people dont seem to be noise makers. But I was assured that the money wouldn't be flowing from this prime ministers office until at minimum 2029. The person said they believed Doug didn't want to pay for it either but knew the feds wouldn't which would let him off the bill and make him look like he tried which should take votes away from Bonnie. Now the person isn't exactly confident that this prime minister will be around even in the next election so there's that change we could speculate on but I will be skeptical a conservative prime minister will have this at the top of his to do list.

I should note that Omar really did want to help fund the Milton GO line. But at a certain cost. This has escalated well past what they would have been comfortable with. Also should be noted that Omar and Bonnie had multiple conversations but basically when Omar called Ford there was an abrupt dial tone. Ford had zero interest real or not real until Bonnie became the new Liberal leader at which time Ford suddenly has real or not real interest. You decide.

I don't think we're disagreeing. I'm just focusing on the silver lining that there is a solution the railways are amenable to that doesn't cost $40B. That seems like significant progress.

 

[drum118]

Based on my (albeit anecdotal) experience during rush-hour, 110 south of UTM is well-patronized (in both directions). Not packed with standees, but certainly not empty. About the level where all seats are taken. The data compiled by @MiExpress based on October 2022 ridership numbers appears to support this.
View attachment 547133

This is one of several routes on my due list to look at for various times of the day and the day of the week. From what I have seen for the south section since day one was poor ridership numbers with a lot of riders who do use the section going to Dundas. 2017 was the last time I have looked at routes and ridership where I did the headcount for on/off as well arrival time for each stops along with an operating cost that was put into a spreadsheet. Notes were made on things that were affecting the service as well.

 

[MiExpress]

As for UTM students as well other university/college students, they are getting a free ride with the cheap fare they are pay compared to what I and others had to pay going to university. If it weren't for the students, bus service on Dundas would be poor west of Erindale Station as well as the lack of the 110 service, especially to Clarkson GO Station, that should be scrapped due to poor ridership. Even the service east of Hurontario would see higher headway than today regardless of whether it needs to be better now. or yesterday.

You also got students going to Sheridan College in Mississauga and Brampton that has call for better bus service on various routes

I have heard the issues surrounding UTM like buses are full, are late, don't show up at all, it takes too long to get to/from it, poor service on the weekend and the list goes on. Those who pay taxes and need to get to/from work get some benefits in better service with the students using the system and they are the ones who pay for the free ride on the system by the students in the first place,

At this point of time, ML is talking to TTC and the City on the BRT ROW on Dundas as it will help various TTC routes, but it will affect TTC riders who may have a longer walk to a stop. There is no timeline for the Toronto section nor funding of it as far as I know.

Based on my (albeit anecdotal) experience during rush-hour, 110 south of UTM is well-patronized (in both directions). Not packed with standees, but certainly not empty. About the level where all seats are taken. The data compiled by @MiExpress based on October 2022 ridership numbers appears to support this.

This is one of several routes on my due list to look at for various times of the day and the day of the week. From what I have seen for the south section since day one was poor ridership numbers with a lot of riders who do use the section going to Dundas. 2017 was the last time I have looked at routes and ridership where I did the headcount for on/off as well arrival time for each stops along with an operating cost that was put into a spreadsheet. Notes were made on things that were affecting the service as well.

Not to drag the discussion further off topic, but drum118 has made these comments about the 110 on various forums over the years. I have objected to them in the past, and I will object here too. In doing so I will present MiWay automated passenger counter data from Fall 2023 (late October-December).

While the 110 south of UTM is nowhere near as busy as the northern section, it isn't empty by any means and the segment provides a critical link from UTM to Clarkson GO. The UTM campus has a high amount of commuters, so maintaining this link is important. Route 110 is also important in network connectivity, connecting the southwest of the city to the transitway and Mississauga City Centre even if it does it in a indirect way. There is also a fair amount of on/off at the stops on Erin Mills/Southdown and removal of the 110 from this section would mean less frequent service for those riders and service elsewhere would have to be increased.

In a scenario where the 110 is eliminated south of UTM, to maintain the existing connections a route like the 44 Mississauga Road would have to be extended to Clarkson, and the 13 Glen Erin would have to have frequency increased to make up for the loss of 110 service on Erin Mills/Southdown. In this case buses and the related service hours would just be moved around with no savings.

Below is data for each weekday trip for the October 23, 2023 service period. The data clearly shows that there is demand on this segment of the route and simply cutting this segment completely is not supported by the data.

110 Southbound from UTM boardings and onboard loads. While quiet in the morning, there are a fair number of boardings towards Clarkson GO on afternoon trips. There is also some through travel as shown by the variance between baordings and onboard load at UTM going Southbound.

110 Northbound onboard loads from Clarkson GO (first stop) , there is clearly demand with people connecting from other routes and GO Transit:

110 Northbound at Dundas, showing the demand from Clarkson GO and also from stops along Erin Mills/Southdown: