2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[Islington Express Bus]

Bailao's post-endorsement bump is entirely fabricated by Mainstreet. All campaign she's been polling way, way higher in Mainstreet polls than in polls by other companies.

Then in the last two polls by them something changed, and their numbers looked a lot like the other polling companies, with Chow in a distant lead and Bailao down with the rest of the also-rans in the low teens.

22% looks good, but Mainstreet also put out polls with her at 20% and 21% 2 and 5 weeks ago respectively. The +9% jump in a matter of days looks like a huge movement for Bailao but only compared to their last two polls, which were outliers for them. It's a lot less impressive when I frame it as a +1% jump in the last 5 weeks.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ford is making robocalls for Saunders.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672352423673839617

Ford just doesn’t get how unpopular he is with Torontonians. Even PC supporters outside of Etobicoke hold their nose when marking their provincial ballots.

 

[marcus_a_j]

I’ve been firmly in the Matlow camp for a while and been advocating for him when talking to others. But I don’t know now with the Ford and Tory robocalls (which thankfully I have not gotten - yet) and the bright red “Stop Chow” signs Saunders has put up, makes me want to vote Chow out of pure spite. I’d be happy with Chow as mayor, and even Bailao wouldn’t be terrible,

 

[adma]

Bailao's post-endorsement bump is entirely fabricated by Mainstreet. All campaign she's been polling way, way higher in Mainstreet polls than in polls by other companies.

Then in the last two polls by them something changed, and their numbers looked a lot like the other polling companies, with Chow in a distant lead and Bailao down with the rest of the also-rans in the low teens.

22% looks good, but Mainstreet also put out polls with her at 20% and 21% 2 and 5 weeks ago respectively. The +9% jump in a matter of days looks like a huge movement for Bailao but only compared to their last two polls, which were outliers for them. It's a lot less impressive when I frame it as a +1% jump in the last 5 weeks.

Thus my "if" in my final sentence: "That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.".

So strategically, I'm taking it at face value--but also trying to grasp the vulnerabilities around the edges that *could* lead this hitherto boy-crying-wolf situation to an unforeseen reality. And also because I'd imagine Team Chow *would* (or at least *should*) be looking behind its back even in the face of an apparent sprint to the finish.

Because, really, this fabricated bump does reflect a reality--if *any* candidate would be poised to break out of the pack and defeat Chow, it's Bailao. But it's because the other contenders are either too unlikeable or too redundant to be a "big-tent" alternative to Chow; so it's really rating on the grade. All the same, I've witnessed too many scares and upsets, so...again, looking behind the back is a sensible thing to do. (And Ford vs Tory in '14 was scary-tighter than some were anticipating.)

If Bailao gets within 10 points, her team would claim it as a moral victory. The thing is, I can't picture anyone *but* Bailao coming within 10 points, unless Olivia plummets to 1/4 of the vote or something, then you might have Saunders and/or Furey (and/or *maybe* Matlow) also within a 10-point span...

 

[zang]

That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.

Because trusting the outlier polls from a company known for getting things wrong is a good idea?

 

[facepalming_brooklynite]

Thus my "if" in my final sentence: "That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.".

So strategically, I'm taking it at face value--but also trying to grasp the vulnerabilities around the edges that *could* lead this hitherto boy-crying-wolf situation to an unforeseen reality. And also because I'd imagine Team Chow *would* (or at least *should*) be looking behind its back even in the face of an apparent sprint to the finish.

Because, really, this fabricated bump does reflect a reality--if *any* candidate would be poised to break out of the pack and defeat Chow, it's Bailao. But it's because the other contenders are either too unlikeable or too redundant to be a "big-tent" alternative to Chow; so it's really rating on the grade. All the same, I've witnessed too many scares and upsets, so...again, looking behind the back is a sensible thing to do. (And Ford vs Tory in '14 was scary-tighter than some were anticipating.)

If Bailao gets within 10 points, her team would claim it as a moral victory. The thing is, I can't picture anyone *but* Bailao coming within 10 points, unless Olivia plummets to 1/4 of the vote or something, then you might have Saunders and/or Furey (and/or *maybe* Matlow) also within a 10-point span...

I think a major unacknowledged obstacle to any coalescing of the anti-Chow vote is that neither Saunders nor "Bailao" (hiding the "ã" on her lawn signs) are palatable to those centre-right voters who have never voted for anyone other than a white male native English speaker.

 

[adma]

Because trusting the outlier polls from a company known for getting things wrong is a good idea?

Again, my "if" qualifier. However, as we know, and as we're seeing now, there might well be a multipronged, complicit strategy afoot--that is, if the push polling doesn't work. the strategic endorsements might. *Everyone's* working together here on this, to make Bailaomania a thing, to turn Bailao vs Chow into the new Eggleton vs Sewell, and helped by how though Kouvalis magic, Bailao's the most wolf-in-sheep's-clothing of Chow's opponents, emphasis upon the "sheep's clothing". I'm not saying it'll work--I'm saying, *watch* how it works, how it *might* work, and how they'll spin the final result. And, team Chow will be watching, too, at least from a longer-term 3-dimensional-electoral-chess POV...

 

[ShonTron]

I’ve been on the fence between Matlow and Chow, because I’ve always found myself disappointed by Chow’s campaigns even though I know that she’s been on the right side of most issues that matters to me since the 1980s and I know it’s not for lack of charisma either; in a rally, she can really fire up a crowd. She’s real.

But the 2014 campaign made her look like such a weak candidate. This campaign, she has done better. She’s been able to withstand harsh attacks and come out well. Yet, she’s still missing solid campaign planks.

Campaign planks is where Matlow shines. I like the fire he brings. He’s said everything I wanted to hear this campaign.

But on Monday, I’ll vote Chow. That’s to contribute to her mandate and make a statement to my councillor.

 

[tiffer24]

Toronto mayoral candidate and former police chief Mark Saunders made an appearance at a free barbecue hosted by Ontario Premier Doug Ford in a city park on Friday only days before residents go to the polls.

Campaign lawn signs in support of Saunders greeted visitors at entrance of Thomson Memorial Park for Ford Fest, an annual barbecue formerly held in the backyard of the premier's family home. The event was promoted by Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

City rules say candidates are not allowed to use city facilities for election purposes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-fest-saunders-1.6887246

 

[adma]

I think a major unacknowledged obstacle to any coalescing of the anti-Chow vote is that neither Saunders nor "Bailao" (hiding the "ã" on her lawn signs) are palatable to those centre-right voters who have never voted for anyone other than a white male native English speaker.

I refer to her as "Bailao" simply because I can't be bothered typing special characters or cutting and pasting her name each time. That is, pure lazy pragmatics ;-)

And at this point, the barrier really *is* less about Bailao being female and "foreign" than, well, the need to have that doohickey atop the "a" in her name.

 

[TonyV]

I refer to her as "Bailao" simply because I can't be bothered typing special characters or cutting and pasting her name each time. That is, pure lazy pragmatics ;-)

And at this point, the barrier really *is* less about Bailao being female and "foreign" than, well, the need to have that doohickey atop the "a" in her name

Those markings are called diacritics. They are used in many languages. We have many languages in Toronto.

 

[Fresco]

Investors think spending money is the same as working

It actually is

 

[Admiral Beez]

Toronto mayoral candidate and former police chief Mark Saunders made an appearance at a free barbecue hosted by Ontario Premier Doug Ford in a city park on Friday only days before residents go to the polls.

I don’t get how law and order mayoral candidate Saunders gets a free pass for the chaos the city suffered under police chief Saunders? TPS officers must have had orders from HQ to ignore clear violations of the Safe Streets Act, enabling beggars and squatters to take over our roadsides, sidewalks and parks. TPS officers must have been told to ignore public drug use and public nuisance, to ignore insane vagrants on the TTC. Maybe you don’t want your police to come down hard on these issues, but it’s hypocritical for Saunders to now make them issues that he alone can solve.

 

[facepalming_brooklynite]

I refer to her as "Bailao" simply because I can't be bothered typing special characters or cutting and pasting her name each time. That is, pure lazy pragmatics ;-)

And at this point, the barrier really *is* less about Bailao being female and "foreign" than, well, the need to have that doohickey atop the "a" in her name.

Sorry adma, this wasn't meant as a dig on your spelling, but rather on the spelling on Bailão's own lawn signs -- the fact that she is deliberately misspelling her own name to appear less "foreign" says something about the centre-right electorate

 

[adma]

Those markings are called diacritics. They are used in many languages. We have many languages in Toronto.

I realize that; but for those for whom it's "an issue", it's "that doohickey atop the "a" in her name".