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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%
  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%
  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%
  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%
  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
I don’t really believe in this Bailao bump. Her campaign has been singularly bland and uninspiring and who’s really paying attention re endorsements?
Getting the endorsement of Tory and The Toronto Star may influence some people.
 
New Mainstreet: Chow 34, Bailao 25, Saunders 11, Furey 10, Matlow 7, Hunter 5, Brown 2, Bradford a Jakobek-esque 1. So Mainstreet's digging in on Bailao's behalf--yet Chow's margin increased 1 point.

And new Forum Research: Chow 29 (down 3), Bailao 20 (up 7), Saunders 15, Furey 11, Matlow 8, Hunter 5, Bradford 3. So now it isn't just Mainstreet showing a Bailao surge.

A few thoughts:

1. If Ford kept his ego in check, an endorsement by him for Bailao, the lesser of two evils versus Chow, over his preferred candidate Saunders, may have been enough to consolidate the anti-Chow vote.

2. At this point, I suspect Chow will have enough steam to win based on the enthusiasm of her base and her probable big margins in advance voting.

3. There will be significant party machine “Get Out The Vote” operations tomorrow. My NDP-affiliated council staffer friend is working on Chow’s campaign 9 to 9 tomorrow, and I expect Liberals will be mostly working for Bailao, and Conservatives will pull the vote for Saunders.

4. Does Gong get more votes than Bradford? That’s the big question.
 
I don’t really believe in this Bailao bump. Her campaign has been singularly bland and uninspiring and who’s really paying attention re endorsements?
Re the bump: "bland works"--it's how Eggleton won vs Sewell in '80. And better "bland and uninspiring" as an antidote to vewwy vewwy scawwy opponents.

But re bland *not* working: it's why she's still way behind Chow.
 
Re the bump: "bland works"--it's how Eggleton won vs Sewell in '80. And better "bland and uninspiring" as an antidote to vewwy vewwy scawwy opponents.

But re bland *not* working: it's why she's still way behind Chow.
I find personally that Bailao is the continuity candidate, and there's no real difference between her and Tory's platform, besides Tory not being on the ticket.

Bailao was canvassing for support for her mayoral bid with Bonnie Crombie at the Liberal convention not too long ago. And this campaign from Bailao is what I'm expecting from Crombie, unfortunately.
 
Re the bump: "bland works"--it's how Eggleton won vs Sewell in '80. And better "bland and uninspiring" as an antidote to vewwy vewwy scawwy opponents.

But re bland *not* working: it's why she's still way behind Chow.

I don't know that I'd say bland isn't working here; Chow's from the left, but she's still pretty mainstream. The right's efforts to paint her as a dangerous radical appear to be backfiring because she's manifestly not that. Chances are - if she wins - that they'll continue to do so no matter how timid or middle-of-the-road her administration actually is. Idiotically enough.

In the meantime, I'm surprised that practically none of the more credible up-and-comers have dropped out to endorse one of the leads. That way they might have some influence on the election, and possibly a more coveted role in the upcoming administration. With this many candidates, you'd figure there'd be at least a few whose common sense would overcome their egos.
 
A few thoughts:

1. If Ford kept his ego in check, an endorsement by him for Bailao, the lesser of two evils versus Chow, over his preferred candidate Saunders, may have been enough to consolidate the anti-Chow vote.

2. At this point, I suspect Chow will have enough steam to win based on the enthusiasm of her base and her probable big margins in advance voting.

3. There will be significant party machine “Get Out The Vote” operations tomorrow. My NDP-affiliated council staffer friend is working on Chow’s campaign 9 to 9 tomorrow, and I expect Liberals will be mostly working for Bailao, and Conservatives will pull the vote for Saunders.

4. Does Gong get more votes than Bradford? That’s the big question.
😂 I love 4
 
Speaking of Gong,, I was joking about the likelihood being something straight out of a BlahTO parody post--but he did, he really did have a Pride parade float and entourage.

He's truly the Monkey Christ of this election race, in the "no publicity is bad publicity" worst way possible (i.e. in the sense of travellers with no yen otherwise for well-thought-out "cultural tourism" going on a Monkey Christ pilgrimage--I'm scared that Gong's going to get *that* kind of duckface-selfie idiot vote).

Other Pride observations: Olivia (of course), Anacanapanacanailão, Matlow and Bradapalooza all had entourages, a Mitzie entourage was mysteriously AWOL (secret turmoil in that camp?), you'd probably imagine Furey to picture himself being "above" pandering to Pride, and as for Saunders, maybe the *real* eleventh-hour tragedy is how even if he *did* seek to attend, he would have been a toxic presence not on account of his politics, but because of the perception that he was asleep at the wheel when the whole Bruce McArthur thing was happening...
 
I'm still with Matlow. Chow is my nightmare candidate, even more so than Saunders, there is literally nothing there with her. No substance. Never been in power, never managed multi-billion dollar budgets, never negoitiated with unions, out of city hall for years. I would like to know who set her up. Tory's endorsement 5 days to the election infuriated me, he had to wait til 129k Torontonians voted before he spoke up - what the hell sort of dick move is that? Why not endorse her straight away? If Chow wins I look forward to the end of homelessness in Toronto - LOL!
 
Tory's endorsement 5 days to the election infuriated me, he had to wait til 129k Torontonians voted before he spoke up - what the hell sort of dick move is that? Why not endorse her straight away?
Maybe Bailão was unsure she wanted it. Has anyone ever sought the endorsement of a disgraced former mayor who resigned after sexually pursuing young women (it won't be just the one) on staff?

Is anyone asking for ex-Governor Cuomo's endorsement?
 
I'm still with Matlow. Chow is my nightmare candidate, even more so than Saunders, there is literally nothing there with her. No substance. Never been in power, never managed multi-billion dollar budgets, never negoitiated with unions, out of city hall for years. I would like to know who set her up. Tory's endorsement 5 days to the election infuriated me, he had to wait til 129k Torontonians voted before he spoke up - what the hell sort of dick move is that? Why not endorse her straight away? If Chow wins I look forward to the end of homelessness in Toronto - LOL!
"Dick Moves" from Tory are why we are having this by-election! It's very on brand.
 

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