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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%

  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%

  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%

  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%

  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%
  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
Fresh polling from Mainstreet.

IMG_8056.jpeg
 
mjl08 said:
Wow, these polls are all over the place, apart from Chow in first. I’m not surprised to see Furey getting a “bump,” but I am surprised to see Hunter with twice the amount of support as Bradford.
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One candidate dropping out right now would make an enormous shift. I wonder if any will do it.
Do we know when the "ballot printing deadline" is so someone dropping out will not show up on the ticket?
 
Jonny5 said:
One candidate dropping out right now would make an enormous shift. I wonder if any will do it.
Do we know when the "ballot printing deadline" is so someone dropping out will not show up on the ticket?
Click to expand...
If anyone should drop out, it's Bradford and Hunter.
 
mjl08 said:
Wow, these polls are all over the place, apart from Chow in first.
Click to expand...

No kidding!

Lets look at the tracking for just the top 3 in the above after Chow (last 3 polls published here on UT)

Bailao 5, 7, 21
Matlow 10, 10, 14
Saunders 11, 18, 10

Matlow is the only one close to the M.O.E across the three.

Bailao's apparent swing is utterly nuts
 
mjl08 said:
Here's one of the cross-tabs, broken down by age, gender and region.

Note the stark downtown vs. suburban support divide for Matlow and Saunders.


View attachment 478566
Click to expand...

The first thing I take from the above is that Giorigo's target market is entirely and exclusively women aged 50-64. Who knew?

Otherwise, the only surprise on gender split to me is that Matlow shows as more favourable to men; I would have expected that to go the other way.

On the age demos, Matlow reads ahead in the young adult group, which I would expect, but maybe he's a bit lower than one might have thought; what stands out there is his weakness relative to Chow and Bailao in the 50-64 demo.
 
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I think it was foolish to think this was going to be a Chow vs Saunders race (as someone here recently posted). I do not think he has any wide appeal besides a small right wing base. I can certainly see a Chow vs a centre candidate like Bailao. If the majority want to "stop" Chow, they will probably find a 'comfortable' candidate to rally behind, and Bailao, being safe and bland, could be that alternative.

Matlow has to think of a clear and appealable theme besides being a policy guy. Most cannot distinguish a good housing policy from a bad one and most will also not pay attention. Unfortunately, you need a simple bumper sticker theme that many find appealing. "Respect for taxpayers" worked, sadly.
 
alklay said:
Matlow has to think of a clear and appealable theme besides being a policy guy. Most cannot distinguish a good housing policy from a bad one and most will also not pay attention. Unfortunately, you need a simple bumper sticker theme that many find appealing. "Respect for taxpayers" worked, sadly.
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This is one of the big reasons Steven Del Duca lost the 2022 Ontario election so badly. Promoting yourself as a big policy person isn't going to win you too many votes.
 
At 10% percent for Anthony Furey and almost 3% for Chris Sky, Etobicoke is an embarrassment.

I can't really pretend to be surprised by a place that keeps voting in regressive assholes like the Fords and the Holydays though.
 
Northern Light said:
The first thing I take from the above is that Giorigo's target market is entirely and exclusively women aged 50-64. Who knew?

Otherwise, the only surprise on gender split to me is that Matlow shows as more favourable to men; I would have expected that to go the other way.

On the age demos, Matlow reads ahead in the young adult group, which I would expect, but maybe he's a bit lower than one might have thought; what stands out there is his weakness relative to Chow and Bailao in the 50-64 demo.
Click to expand...

Matlow is in a very tough spot. His highest polling numbers were before Chow was officially in the race. Since then, they dropped and now appear flat.

He's released a very policy-heavy platform, that appears to be fully costed, but it hasn't sparked much interest.
 
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mjl08 said:
Matlow is in a very tough spot. His highest polling numbers was before Chow was officially in the race. Since then, they dropped and now appear flat.

He's released a very policy-heavy platform, that appears to be fully costed, but it hasn't sparked much interest.
Click to expand...

I agree; with this proviso, the media is giving him and his platform very little airtime, which is a serious challenge.

He needs greater visibility if he's going to get any traction.
 
mjl08 said:
Matlow is in a very tough spot. His highest polling numbers were before Chow was officially in the race. Since then, they dropped and now appear flat.

He's released a very policy-heavy platform, that appears to be fully costed, but it hasn't sparked much interest.
Click to expand...
It's sad, but voters don't care about detailed policy - they want catchy soundbites that don't challenge the brain.
 
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