SJD_Toronto
Active Member
Fresh polling from Mainstreet.
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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election
- Thread starter SJD_Toronto
- Start date
christiesplits
Senior Member
Wow, these polls are all over the place, apart from Chow in first. I’m not surprised to see Furey getting a “bump,” but I am surprised to see Hunter with twice the amount of support as Bradford.
Jonny5
Senior Member
One candidate dropping out right now would make an enormous shift. I wonder if any will do it.
Do we know when the "ballot printing deadline" is so someone dropping out will not show up on the ticket?
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
If anyone should drop out, it's Bradford and Hunter.
Northern Light
Superstar
No kidding!
Lets look at the tracking for just the top 3 in the above after Chow (last 3 polls published here on UT)
Bailao 5, 7, 21
Matlow 10, 10, 14
Saunders 11, 18, 10
Matlow is the only one close to the M.O.E across the three.
Bailao's apparent swing is utterly nuts
Fresco
Active Member
Ana Bailao may be closing gap
Olivia Chow leads, but Ana Bailao may be closing gap in Toronto mayoral race: poll
Olivia Chow remains the front-runner in the race for Toronto mayor, but another candidate is gaining support, according to a new poll.
www.cp24.com
christiesplits
Senior Member
Here's one of the cross-tabs, broken down by age, gender and region.
Note the stark downtown vs. suburban support divide for Matlow and Saunders.
Northern Light
Superstar
The first thing I take from the above is that Giorigo's target market is entirely and exclusively women aged 50-64. Who knew?
Otherwise, the only surprise on gender split to me is that Matlow shows as more favourable to men; I would have expected that to go the other way.
On the age demos, Matlow reads ahead in the young adult group, which I would expect, but maybe he's a bit lower than one might have thought; what stands out there is his weakness relative to Chow and Bailao in the 50-64 demo.
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W. K. Lis
Superstar
Guess "York" and "East York" are like Peel's Region's Caledon. They don't count.
alklay
Senior Member
I think it was foolish to think this was going to be a Chow vs Saunders race (as someone here recently posted). I do not think he has any wide appeal besides a small right wing base. I can certainly see a Chow vs a centre candidate like Bailao. If the majority want to "stop" Chow, they will probably find a 'comfortable' candidate to rally behind, and Bailao, being safe and bland, could be that alternative.
Matlow has to think of a clear and appealable theme besides being a policy guy. Most cannot distinguish a good housing policy from a bad one and most will also not pay attention. Unfortunately, you need a simple bumper sticker theme that many find appealing. "Respect for taxpayers" worked, sadly.
Matlow has to think of a clear and appealable theme besides being a policy guy. Most cannot distinguish a good housing policy from a bad one and most will also not pay attention. Unfortunately, you need a simple bumper sticker theme that many find appealing. "Respect for taxpayers" worked, sadly.
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
This is one of the big reasons Steven Del Duca lost the 2022 Ontario election so badly. Promoting yourself as a big policy person isn't going to win you too many votes.
Towered
Senior Member
At 10% percent for Anthony Furey and almost 3% for Chris Sky, Etobicoke is an embarrassment.
I can't really pretend to be surprised by a place that keeps voting in regressive assholes like the Fords and the Holydays though.
I can't really pretend to be surprised by a place that keeps voting in regressive assholes like the Fords and the Holydays though.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Matlow is in a very tough spot. His highest polling numbers were before Chow was officially in the race. Since then, they dropped and now appear flat.
He's released a very policy-heavy platform, that appears to be fully costed, but it hasn't sparked much interest.
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Northern Light
Superstar
I agree; with this proviso, the media is giving him and his platform very little airtime, which is a serious challenge.
He needs greater visibility if he's going to get any traction.
Towered
Senior Member
It's sad, but voters don't care about detailed policy - they want catchy soundbites that don't challenge the brain.