2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[turini2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675180560644202496

From today's Star - holy crap!

 

[adma]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675180560644202496

From today's Star - holy crap!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1674969815893647360

Which contradicts my earlier speculation that Bailao might have done better in the advance than all those non-Mainstreet pollsters suggested.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675180560644202496

From today's Star - holy crap!

Well, maybe another way to see it is Tory finally decided to get involved after internal polls (not the public ones, which are kind of off mark) shows that Bailao is lagging. Not getting involved might have been the default position - appearances, promises and general ethics goes out the window once the preferred candidate is losing.

Now when's the "advance voting is fake" crowd going to show up and make noise?

AoD

 

[adma]

Now when's the "advance voting is fake" crowd going to show up and make noise?

AoD

A mushy-middler like Bailao doesn't inspire it the way that a Ford-endorsed firebrand might. Which is why the main "rigged election" rhetoric is coming from Chris Sky way at the bottom--maybe he *really* wants the brownie points for finishing ahead of Bradford...

 

[zang]

Now when's the "advance voting is fake" crowd going to show up and make noise?

AoD

Well, if we’re going the conspiracy route, maybe it was Bailão who pushed Tory for the endorsement. Who knows what she might’ve found out about Tory as deputy mayor. Or if there are Tory-related reasons she decided not to run for council in this past election…

 

[adma]

A mushy-middler like Bailao doesn't inspire it the way that a Ford-endorsed firebrand might. Which is why the main "rigged election" rhetoric is coming from Chris Sky way at the bottom--maybe he *really* wants the brownie points for finishing ahead of Bradford...

However, I *will* say that I noticed via Twitter a whole bunch of people defensively *responding* to a matter-of-fact, statistical-reportage "Bailao won on e-day, Chow won in the advance" post as if it *were* bait for the anti-Chow "advance voting is fake" crowd. Which suggests that there's a whole lot of people out there who are truly statistically incurious-to-the-point-of-dense to the point of missing the point of that kind of shared data, or oversurmising some kind of "political agenda" behind that kind of sharing--almost like a naive pro-Chow counterpart to pro-Trumpers who only recognize two statistics: winning an election "by a lot", or an election being "rigged".

"Gee, numbers and statistics make my head hurt. And those who use them a lot are trying to pull a fast one on me."

 

[adma]

It's sort of like, people who tell those who post such statistical data, "Olivia Chow won, period, and that's all that matters", miss the point of election statistics completely

 

[ShonTron]

I created an interactive map showing the results at the poll level, including advance poll results in the ward-level data.

https://seanmarshall.ca/2023/07/03/mapping-the-2023-mayoral-byelection/

 

[Northern Light]

I created an interactive map showing the results at the poll level, including advance poll results in the ward-level data.

https://seanmarshall.ca/2023/07/03/mapping-the-2023-mayoral-byelection/

Link is currently broken.

 

[ShonTron]

Link is currently broken.

Damn it. It’s working now.

 

[Northern Light]

Damn it. It’s working now.

I have duly read; and fine work as always!

While I would encourage everyone to follow the link in @ShonTron 's post for his thoughtful take, I will also link directly to his map:

ArcGIS Web Application

walkitect.maps.arcgis.com

For the above:

 

[adma]

One thing that puzzled me is how Lyall Sanders wound up in the top tier of the bottom tier (i.e. next after Gong, and 2 1/2 times the next one down, Mammo)--the most "obvious" explanation has been a Sanders/Saunders confusion; yet I can't say that Saunders had enough support to back up that degree of mistaken-identity balloting, unless being btw/Saunders & Saccoccia on the ballot might have led to "adjacency accidents" from the *other* side. Or maybe, those most susceptable to Saunders by way of DoFo are truly *that* dense, and they might see the Sanders vs Saunders on the ballot and go "gee, which one", and go for the first--or who knows, maybe Ford Nation's social media whizzes sent out a reminder to "Vote for Sanders" (sic) and that's what happened...

 

[christiesplits]

I created an interactive map showing the results at the poll level, including advance poll results in the ward-level data.

https://seanmarshall.ca/2023/07/03/mapping-the-2023-mayoral-byelection/

Great work!

You can overlay the household income map with the election results almost perfectly.

 

[christiesplits]

I chatted with my city hall staffer friend last night. He works for a progressive councillor. One name that has popped up among some lefty circles is Olivia Chow.

Personally, I think this is a bad choice. Yes, she has name recognition, but her 2014 campaign was very uninspiring. Even if she took a cue from 9 years ago and ran on a more bold and ambitious platform, I think she comes off as "yesterday's candidate."

I owe my friend a pop.

 

[Coolibop]

I now know what $123k worth of signs looks like... In comparison, Chow spent $98k and Bailao $64k.