King of Kensington
Senior Member
Obviously whether Tory runs for a third term greatly influences the dynamic.
Progressives:
The last time "the left" won the mayor's office was in 2006. In the last two elections, the anointed "progressive" candidate received around 23% of the vote. They haven't really been able to break out of the base of urban New Democrats and Adam Vaughan-type "reform Liberals" There's a sort of "island of progressives" in the inner west end (i.e. roughly Spadina to Roncesvalles), but they can't even carry downtown or the east end (and are basically a non-factor outside the core).
David Miller won in 2003 by dominating the inner city and by being competitive in the outskirts. In the last election, the Ontario NDP was able to eke out a popular vote victory in the city of Toronto in the last provincial election with a somewhat similar electoral map (though Miller faced a bland establishmentarian while the Ontario NDP's main opponent was Doug Ford's more populist PCs).
So...who of the progressive councillors is most likely to run and/or mount a credible campaign? I can see Kristyn Wong-Tam, Mike Layton or Joe Cressy running. Josh Matlow is also aligned also progressive-aligned but also known to be a bit of a maverick and may not secure institutional support.
Center/Center-Right/Establishment:
Assuming Tory doesn't run again, Ana Bailao could run. Interestingly her ward is now the most progressive in the city. She got a Labour Council endorsement last time, but she also has a strong appeal to conservative-minded homeowners and is apparently a good constituency pol.
Michael Thompson could be another possibility - very John Tory-like, kinda bland, but would make history as Toronto's first black mayor.
Ford Nation/Populists:
Honestly I think Ford Nation is pretty much dead. In the last election, it looks like it split evenly between Tory and not voting at all (and a handful voted for Faith Goldy). I don't think the "culture war" stuff is salient as it was a decade ago, for example the number of people who see bike lanes as a threat to their "way of life" has diminished greatly. Amalgamation is increasingly a distant memory.
Michael Ford doesn't seem to really have any big political ambition. And another populist, Jim Karygiannis, is banned from running in 2022.
Nonpopulist Conservatives:
The most right-wing councillors these days seem to be Denzil Minnan-Wong and Stephen Holyday. But they're not really populists, more orthodox small-"c" conservatives, who seem nostalgic for the Don Mills and Etobicoke of 1960. I don't think either have much appeal.
Progressives:
The last time "the left" won the mayor's office was in 2006. In the last two elections, the anointed "progressive" candidate received around 23% of the vote. They haven't really been able to break out of the base of urban New Democrats and Adam Vaughan-type "reform Liberals" There's a sort of "island of progressives" in the inner west end (i.e. roughly Spadina to Roncesvalles), but they can't even carry downtown or the east end (and are basically a non-factor outside the core).
David Miller won in 2003 by dominating the inner city and by being competitive in the outskirts. In the last election, the Ontario NDP was able to eke out a popular vote victory in the city of Toronto in the last provincial election with a somewhat similar electoral map (though Miller faced a bland establishmentarian while the Ontario NDP's main opponent was Doug Ford's more populist PCs).
So...who of the progressive councillors is most likely to run and/or mount a credible campaign? I can see Kristyn Wong-Tam, Mike Layton or Joe Cressy running. Josh Matlow is also aligned also progressive-aligned but also known to be a bit of a maverick and may not secure institutional support.
Center/Center-Right/Establishment:
Assuming Tory doesn't run again, Ana Bailao could run. Interestingly her ward is now the most progressive in the city. She got a Labour Council endorsement last time, but she also has a strong appeal to conservative-minded homeowners and is apparently a good constituency pol.
Michael Thompson could be another possibility - very John Tory-like, kinda bland, but would make history as Toronto's first black mayor.
Ford Nation/Populists:
Honestly I think Ford Nation is pretty much dead. In the last election, it looks like it split evenly between Tory and not voting at all (and a handful voted for Faith Goldy). I don't think the "culture war" stuff is salient as it was a decade ago, for example the number of people who see bike lanes as a threat to their "way of life" has diminished greatly. Amalgamation is increasingly a distant memory.
Michael Ford doesn't seem to really have any big political ambition. And another populist, Jim Karygiannis, is banned from running in 2022.
Nonpopulist Conservatives:
The most right-wing councillors these days seem to be Denzil Minnan-Wong and Stephen Holyday. But they're not really populists, more orthodox small-"c" conservatives, who seem nostalgic for the Don Mills and Etobicoke of 1960. I don't think either have much appeal.
Last edited:
