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2022 election - who is running for mayor?

No he doesn't need them. It's a very niche constituency, found largely in the Annex, midtown and in the downtown core. They like Jennifer Keesmaat but also Adam Vaughan, Chrystia Freeland and Carolyn Bennett. I think @mjl08 calls them (quite fittingly) "Adam Vaughan Liberals."

Altogether they'd maybe add 10 points to Tory's tally.
 
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King of Kensington said:
Yup, Tory has broken the core/suburb juggernaut. He's got the trust of suburban conservatives but also the support of a lot of centrist Liberals downtown. He appeals to people who like competent technocrats.
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I don't think he broke it - changing demographics is what broke it (just like it had done so in provincial/federal elections) - Tory merely took advantage of it (particularly in the post-Ford era). As to Tory's legacy - well, he can claim a few - King Streetcar priority; municipal office consolidation, rethinking of social housing (particularly within the context of city properties) - even if he isn't necessarily the prime mover. Credit where it is due I suppose.

AoD
 
Gentrification has likely undermined Ford-style populism - not that gentrification has really made it to "Ford Nation" but the growth of downtown means has increased voting influence in the core and weakened voting influence of Ford Nation.

A bigger problem for municipal progressives is a lack of appeal to working class and immigrant communities in the outskirts. They'd need something like a 2018 NDP provincial result to win city-wide or even have a shot. The Keesmaat strategy of appealing to culturally liberal professionals in the core isn't enough, especially since Tory proved competitive with that group as well.
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I imagine to shift to condo/apartment living tends to be correlated with less conservative views.
 
afransen said:
I imagine to shift to condo/apartment living tends to be correlated with less conservative views.
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Urban sociologist Louis Wirth once argued that as people live closer to each other, they are forced to be more tolerant of differences, and thus, urban centres tend to be more socially progressive.

Those living in high-density residential are much more likely to be exposed to those who are different and high-density residential areas are generally found close to areas with high employment densities (such as office towers and tourist attractions) and close to high-order public transit (such as subways).
 
mjl08 said:
Brad Bradford is a good example. Keesmaat initially endorsed him (he was a former staffer) until her campaign fizzled and he jumped on the Tory train, gaining his endorsement and campaign resources to eke out a council win. Bradford has spearheaded some good projects in Beaches East York, but has also been a Tory loyalist in council, including voting against opening the books on the Gardiner rebuild and against reopening the Scarborough subway debates (I hope he returned his urban planner card afterwards).

I think a lot of liberal/centrist types find Tory inoffensive, and a return to stability after the Mayor Ford fiasco. How a high society Bay Street insider is a "breath of fresh air" is beyond me, but it got him over 60% of the vote in 2018. Even the Toronto Star endorsed him.
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I’d vote for Tory again. I think he understands that the police budget growth must be slowed, we’re building LRTs, massively expanded the bike lane network.
 
jelbana said:
That's a little too generous. He'd rather be silent than explain to his electorate that he is making a trade-off for political gain. The example of blocking a request for a staff report on reopening the Gardiner debate is a big one. It's not at all an irreversible decision. I find him to be hypocritical. He'd rather not explain his view in situations like these because it would expose his lack of consistency with some of the more urbanist policies he pushes for.
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I disagreed w/that decision; and support the removal of the Gardiner; but............at that time, Tory whipped his vote to get his desired outcome.

Brad's vote on the report wouldn't have even changed the outcome on getting the report, never mind getting the desired result from said report.

Political horsetrading can be messy; sometimes quite offputting; but I understand and accept that it is part of our system for the time being.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I’d vote for Tory again. I think he understands that the police budget growth must be slowed, we’re building LRTs, massively expanded the bike lane network.
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Yes, he has not been too bad and has learned a few things in the last few years BUT his choice of Executive Committee members is still far too right wing and appointing Denzil M-W as his Deputy Mayor stinks!
 
jelbana said:
Given that this is municipal politics, where there is no such thing as a party whip and where we have a very weak mayoral system allowing each councillor full autonomy in their vote,
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Errr. Not as overtly partisan; but the Mayor definitely whips votes; and has lots of levers to effect that. Tory isn't the first........you may remember Mammo with this thumbs up/down on the Council floor when Rob Ford was mayor.

I wish it were not so...........

jelbana said:
I also have tried repeatedly to communicate with him, as I live in his ward, and generally his responses tend to deflect or assume willful ignorance in the merit in any argument put forth. So, I don't appreciate a representative that attempts to hide their inconsistent principles rather than engage meaningfully with constituents.
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I'm sorry to hear that that has been your experience. My own has been the opposite; I've found him easy to get in touch with, willing to meet; and exceedingly frank in private conversations.

Again, I would love to see his political capital employed a bit differently; and have it achieve more.........
 
The one thing making me think Tory will run again is that he could be the first three-time elected mayor since amalgamation. What politician doesn't like their ego stroked?
 
It seems like Toronto politics has drifted quite far from the 2014 election. In that election you really had a strong urban progressive vs. establishmentarian vs. right-populist contrast between the candidates. By 2018 the two "major" candidates made for much of a less interesting contrast: the slightly right of center establishmentarian mayor faced a slightly left of center centrist technocrat.

Pretty hard to beat Tory's coalition of suburbanites and centrist Liberals in the core.
 
Northern Light said:
I'm sorry to hear that that has been your experience. My own has been the opposite; I've found him easy to get in touch with, willing to meet; and exceedingly frank in private conversations.
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Likewise for me. I've even had a few private conversation exchanges on social media about various planning policy and cycling initiatives he's been pushing for. Remarkably open for a City Councilor, and I am not even his constituent.

Bradford is also a former City Planner which I think is an excellent perspective for the mayoral seat to have. Most of the critiques of Bradford have been that he is too pragmatic, but I think that should be considered a big positive when compared to more idealistic candidates like Keesmaat was in the last election cycle. It shows a broader understanding of the various interests involved in accomplishing policy objectives on both the public side (juggling the various city departments) and the private side (working with the various stakeholders involved in community projects and urban developments). I also don't think that pragmatism should be mistaken for a lack of ambition, as has been demonstrated by a lot of the cycling infrastructure that has been pushed through council this term.

I think John Tory is setting up Brad Bradford and Ana Bailao (notice how Tory has placed her in charge of the affordable housing and HousingNow portfolio, which are legacy projects for him!) to be his successors. Hopefully we don't get a situation where both run and split the moderate vote.
 
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