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2022 election - who is running for mayor?

King of Kensington

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Obviously whether Tory runs for a third term greatly influences the dynamic.

Progressives:

The last time "the left" won the mayor's office was in 2006. In the last two elections, the anointed "progressive" candidate received around 23% of the vote. They haven't really been able to break out of the base of urban New Democrats and Adam Vaughan-type "reform Liberals" There's a sort of "island of progressives" in the inner west end (i.e. roughly Spadina to Roncesvalles), but they can't even carry downtown or the east end (and are basically a non-factor outside the core).

David Miller won in 2003 by dominating the inner city and by being competitive in the outskirts. In the last election, the Ontario NDP was able to eke out a popular vote victory in the city of Toronto in the last provincial election with a somewhat similar electoral map (though Miller faced a bland establishmentarian while the Ontario NDP's main opponent was Doug Ford's more populist PCs).

So...who of the progressive councillors is most likely to run and/or mount a credible campaign? I can see Kristyn Wong-Tam, Mike Layton or Joe Cressy running. Josh Matlow is also aligned also progressive-aligned but also known to be a bit of a maverick and may not secure institutional support.

Center/Center-Right/Establishment:

Assuming Tory doesn't run again, Ana Bailao could run. Interestingly her ward is now the most progressive in the city. She got a Labour Council endorsement last time, but she also has a strong appeal to conservative-minded homeowners and is apparently a good constituency pol.

Michael Thompson could be another possibility - very John Tory-like, kinda bland, but would make history as Toronto's first black mayor.

Ford Nation/Populists:

Honestly I think Ford Nation is pretty much dead. In the last election, it looks like it split evenly between Tory and not voting at all (and a handful voted for Faith Goldy). I don't think the "culture war" stuff is salient as it was a decade ago, for example the number of people who see bike lanes as a threat to their "way of life" has diminished greatly. Amalgamation is increasingly a distant memory.

Michael Ford doesn't seem to really have any big political ambition. And another populist, Jim Karygiannis, is banned from running in 2022.

Nonpopulist Conservatives:

The most right-wing councillors these days seem to be Denzil Minnan-Wong and Stephen Holyday. But they're not really populists, more orthodox small-"c" conservatives, who seem nostalgic for the Don Mills and Etobicoke of 1960. I don't think either have much appeal.
 
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afransen

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Holyday and DMW seem to be perennially in the minority rump in votes on council. Would they really appeal to the broader electorate?
 

mjl08

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Obviously whether Tory runs for a third term greatly influences the dynamic.
Assuming Tory doesn't run, I agree that Bailao and Thompson are two possible candidates. Both are Tory allies on council and would have the support of much of Toronto's business and political establishment.

For the left, I think the most likely and strongest candidate would be KWT. Unlike Cressy or Layton, she isn't as deeply entrenched with the NDP, and has the support of leftish-liberals of the Adam Vaughan and Shelley Carroll variety, creating a very sturdy coalition.

I would never discount Ford Nation. Mikey Ford running is always a possibility.
 

King of Kensington

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For the left, I think the most likely and strongest candidate would be KWT. Unlike Cressy or Layton, she isn't as deeply entrenched with the NDP, and has the support of leftish-liberals of the Adam Vaughan and Shelley Carroll variety, creating a very sturdy coalition.

That was true of Jennifer Keesmaat too, though KWT actually has electoral experience and the dynamics obviously change in an open race (the last race was really only a semi-competitive one).
 

mjl08

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That was true of Jennifer Keesmaat too, though KWT actually has electoral experience and the dynamics obviously change in an open race (the last race was really only a semi-competitive one).

Also, Keesmaat joined the race on the last day to register. She never really had time to find her footing.
 

King of Kensington

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Rob Ford had a strange kind of charisma needed for populist politicians to be successful.

Yes, DMW and Holyday aren't exactly bombastic populists. A focus on voting records misses the point about the Ford Nation phenomenon, in my opinion. Rob Ford's appeal had little to do with his "policies."
 

afransen

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I think Tory goes for a third term. There will also be a token NDP type and conservative too. I would hope that we don’t have a prominent white supremacist in the running this time.
Not sure why he would leave. Does he want to take another kick at provincial or federal politics?

He would have actually made a decent premier. He was let down by idiot advisors.
 

picard102

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Not sure why he would leave. Does he want to take another kick at provincial or federal politics?

He would have actually made a decent premier. He was let down by idiot advisors.

He's stated that his wife decided he would only seek two terms.
But I can't imagine him not running again, given the complete lack of opposition like last election.
 

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