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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

kEiThZ said:
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Sec Gen., has said that Russia has deployed 80% of its ground forces in Ukraine. A quarter to a third of those are dead. And another quarter are injured. Ukraine has effectively taken half of Russia's army off the field. Trying to mobilize with these numbers means nobody to train conscripts and even worse equipment for the troops. It's only going to escalate casualties.
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Is that right--isn't that a crazy casualty rate? Isn't this approaching WW1/WW2 trench warfare casualty rate?
 
kEiThZ said:
He can try. But whatever he does will only make it worse for him and Russia. The last thing he wants is Western intervention piling on in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Consider what happens when Ukraine wins and joins the EU and NATO. This will also break Russia's gas stranglehold on Europe. Ukraine has substantial gas reserves in Donbas and offshore. And an existing pipeline network. And they'll be protected by NATO guarantees. Sanctions will further cut them off. Russia is going back to Soviet era living conditions for good.
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In this way, I am not surprised that Europe is treating Ukraine as a critical security matter. Integrating Ukraine in EU/NATO will do much to shore up Europe's strategic position.
 
afransen said:
Is that right--isn't that a crazy casualty rate? Isn't this approaching WW1/WW2 trench warfare casualty rate?
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If the 48k estimate that recently leaked from Russia is true, this is accurate. In late August, the Pentagon was saying 80k combined KIA/WIA. And that didn't include local militia and unconventional forces (ie. Wagner).
 
afransen said:
In this way, I am not surprised that Europe is treating Ukraine as a critical security matter. Integrating Ukraine in EU/NATO will do much to shore up Europe's strategic position.
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Heck, it's actually surprising that the Americans are doing more to ensure European energy security than the Europeans themselves.

The defeat of Russia in Ukraine will transform Europe. Ukraine will ensure European energy security. Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics and Scandinavia will become central to Europe's geopolitics and European security. And thats where American focus will move to, away from France and Germany. Could be why the Germans and French were such reluctant backers of Ukraine.

More broadly, this is also a disaster for China. A weakened Russia can't distract the West. And a confident Europe led by a bunch of pro-American allies will free up American resources and attention to focus on the Pacific. All while America's Asian allies are arming up. Also, after years of messaging about how the West and America are all about destruction and exploitation, the world just got to see the US help liberate a country without putting a single boot on the ground (at least overtly). They are the one helping people fight for freedom and prosperity. Not China.
 
Not a surprise that all is not well on the homefront for Putin; but the extent to which this in the open and public, including by members of local government is certainly eye-brow raising.

www.rferl.org

Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation

Municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign, saying "everything went wrong" since the start of his second term and they believe a change of power is necessary for the sake of the country.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
Towered said:
That POS cockroach Denis Pushilin has fled Donetsk.
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Stop mincing words, and tell us what you really think of him!

****

I knew the name, of course, but you made me look him up on Wikipedia again to refresh my memory......

His rise to power includes being a post-secondary dropout, working in sales for 4 years at a trading company, and then being involved with a ponzi scheme.

That's the CV that gets you to be war monger of your own little fiefdom.
 
New bits and bobs:

Official confirmation that Russian has ordered a retreat of all forces from Kharkiv region:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Russia is RETREATING and Ukrainian offensive make stunning gains

The offensive south of Kharkiv took the thinl defended Russian lines by surprise, leading to reports of mass retreats that the Russian MoD has dressed up as a 're-grouping.'
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

The public statement says they are to be redeployed to other areas needing support, notably Donetsk.

In practice, its unclear to me that the forces in question have the practical means to redeploy as described, or would have sufficient supplies and arms with them to be of use in such an exercise from Russia's perspective.

****

On Donetsk I'm hearing that there is ongoing heavy fighting, and that Ukraine now has provisional control of about 50% of the territory. But that is not publicly confirmed or corroborated that this time, so take that with the appropriately large grain of salt.
 
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Bjays92 said:
I'm seeing more and more sources saying this. It is virtually unbelievable and yet appears to be happeneing. This might go down as one of the greatest military collapses of all time.
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And Donetsk to Mariupol is only 110 km down a modern highway with no river crossings. That’s a 22 hour walk or about 1 hour drive if unopposed, so perhaps five hours?
 
Mariupol is symbolic. But not militarily relevant. Next assault coming up is in Zaporizhzhia, aiming for Melitopol and bypassing the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant to ensure the Russians there are cut off.
 
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