lenaitch
Senior Member
Perhaps not everybody is a military and political strategist. Learning is a lifelong endeavour.
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Looks like Canada and Germany are crying poor.
Just like Covid demonstrated that our supplies of PPE and respirators was insufficient for the real world pandemic they were planned for; the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War shows that Canada, Germany and other’s supplies of weapons are insufficient for the war against the Russia they were supposed to fight. Ukraine should be thanked for showing us that we need a lot more kit.
Just like Covid demonstrated that our supplies of PPE and respirators was insufficient for the real world pandemic they were planned for; the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War shows that Canada, Germany and other’s supplies of weapons are insufficient for the war against the Russia they were supposed to fight. Ukraine should be thanked for showing us that we need a lot more kit.
Northern Light
Superstar
I don't mind constructive criticism of Canada or her governments, at all.
There's an element here that's entirely fair, we let respirator stockpiles expire and PPE supplies lag, not keeping pace with population growth..........and that's not at all acceptable.......
We could heap on many other critiques given the long term care debacle while we're at it...........
But I object to disproportionate criticism.
From: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/data-insights/excess-mortality-since-january-2020
Likewise............while there are countless ways in which we might better invest our Defense dollars, and perhaps more of them too.........
Yup, that's right, we are the 5th largest military/foreign aid supplier to Ukraine in the world.
That is far larger than the relative size of our economy or population.
And almost quadruple that of Australia, a country which seems to get more favourable mention in this thread....
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afransen
Senior Member
A bit mind boggling that France and Germany aren't shouldering a larger share of the burden.
kEiThZ
Superstar
1) That estimate is to the beginning of August. In case, you haven't noticed a lot has happened since then.
2) Dollars don't win wars. Bullets, bombs and armour do. You should look at what those dollars translate into in real terms. We sent 4 howitzers for example. We sent 20 000 artillery, which sounds impressive till you realize what Ukraine went through those in two days. We sent 8 armoured trucks from Mississauga. Enough for an ambulance company. And we pledged 26 armoured combat support vehicles, which have no turrets or anti tank missiles. And 40 LAVs. That's barely enough for a battalion. For context, Ukraine has 10 -12 battalions on offence, just in Kharkiv right now.
The sad reality (even communicated by this graph) is that Ukraine's fate is almost entirely at the mercy of the US. The UK and Poland are somewhat relevant because their contributions translated into things that had substantial effect on the battlefield. The UK provided NLAW missiles are responsible for 30-40% of Russian armour losses in Ukraine till July. Poland is basically responsible for almost singlehandedly reconstituting Ukrainian armour with a donation of 230 tanks.
Arguably, the most valuable contribution Canada made was helping train Ukrainians since 2014. In terms of actual military aid, nobody is going to say our donations were materially impactful and changed the course of the war. This is not anything like say Canada holding its own in WWII. The closest equivalent to that this time is Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavians.
That's before we even get into economic assistance, where we've been rather stingy too. The Europeans at least have an excuse with millions of refugees and sky high fuel bills. What's ours?
Incredible. Isn't it? And both countries were among the top covert suppliers to Russia before the war. I really think they didn't want Ukraine to be successful because they know that Ukraine's success and admission into the US and NATO will realign the geopolitical centre of Europe to the East.
We're a G7 country whose big contribution basically amounts to a little more than battalion's worth of equipment. And we had to dig deep for that. Meanwhile, Poland, with the same population, took in millions of refugees, donated 5 battalions worth of tanks, a whole bunch of other stuff and billions in economic aid. All while Poland immediately raised defence spending to 3% and is on its way to 5% of GDP (the highest in NATO). I've said before that Poland will supplant us in relevance in some ways. I stand by it. Heck, there's a chance they supplant Germany in many ways. It's going to be interesting when the US starts moving bases from Germany to Poland after the war, and starts looking at Poland as the power centre for Central and Eastern Europe, if not all of continental Europe.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
If there's a military contribution we should be proud of, it's the Wescam turrets on Ukraine's Turkish drones. If anybody wants something to get Canada credit for, use that. Wescam makes some of the best optics in the world. It's a company that Canadians should be proud of.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Good map and summary here.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Jomini is the GOAT of miltwitter.
Remember what I said about Melitopol and Mariupol? Well.....
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
re: France and Germany - Dugin's end goals are suspect, but some of his observations aren't wrong -particular wrt to those two countries.
re: Canada's support - the problem is that we, unlike Poland, the Baltic States or whatnot, doesn't really see it as an existential threat - and the political support from Canadians amount to - "say nice things, do little, and certainly don't make us suffer for it".
Too bad, I think that would have simplified post-war politics a bit.
AoD
kEiThZ
Superstar
He nailed Brexit and Trump/American racial tensions.
Yep. And I mostly wouldn't care as much, but for the routine Canadian tendency to pat ourselves on the back for superficial contributions. And the bizarre Canadian tendency to act as though we are owed attention and deference, because "middle power". If Ukraine had to rely on more countries like us instead of the US, UK and Poland, we'd be discussing all the atrocities the Russians are committing in Kyiv right now, instead of the Kharkiv offensive.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Did he nail it? Or did he help Russian policies that helped inflame it (that aspect is quite historical even during the Soviet times)?
I think it is less because we're a middle power, but that we wanted to take credit for our historical post-Second World War actions that has no bearing to what we have done in the last 3 decades.
AoD
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Honestly? Credit to this government and past ones for doing just enough to maintain the myth of our relevance, while managing a steady decline in actual relevance of the past few decades. Takes skill to give just enough to say, "We're number 5!" while giving little of actual substance. I doubt the Russians are monitoring aid flights from Trenton with the same interest as those from Brize Norton.
We would have achieved a lot more with less money and more actual kit. I was a staunch advocate for giving them way more of our artillery (we're learning how risky towed artillery is anyway) and recoilless rifles. A Carl G isn't an NLAW or Javelin. But it can take out a thin skinned BMP or fuel truck or anti-air radar. We'd be getting the kind of acclaim the Baltics are getting, if we had donated more of this stuff.
Northern Light
Superstar
Lots of mention of Poland above.
Important to acknowledge they have put together a very capable and substantial military, that is without question.
But the future is a bit murkier.
Poland's population is projected to collapse by ~40% over the next 80 years:
Meanwhile........Canada's population is projected to grow to ~ 75-100M over the same period.
Important to acknowledge they have put together a very capable and substantial military, that is without question.
But the future is a bit murkier.
Poland's population is projected to collapse by ~40% over the next 80 years:
Meanwhile........Canada's population is projected to grow to ~ 75-100M over the same period.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
From, "We're number 5!" to, "Poland will collapse nearly a century from now.". As if population forecasts a century out are cast in stone and can't be substantially changed with policy. This is kinda like all those predictions of China collapsing by the end of the century. Irrelevant in our lifetime. Sour grapes in geopolitics can be entertaining though.