lenaitch
Senior Member
Interesting to see the rails deformed simply due to the weight of the wheels.
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
kEiThZ
Superstar
I think the hour or more of high temperature fuel fires applied to them might have something to do with it too...
lenaitch
Senior Member
No doubt. I tend to creep TSB investigation reports (a little weird I will admit) and I don't think I've ever seen something similar. I imagine in this case it was a flammable product release caused by shrapnel but the cars staying upright on the rails, which is not typical in most rail incidents.
Northern Light
Superstar
This makes perfect sense. A reprisal; of this scale on this diverse a number of targets, some of low strategic value, suggests as much.
Northern Light
Superstar
You know what I find odd...........
To expend that much military capital (over 80 missiles) , on a large number of targets that don't help you in the theatre of war.
The Russians have been pushed back aggressively by the Ukrainians (yay), but if you were the Russians, and you have missile power to spare........would it not be logical to do
to the Ukrainians what they are doing to you? ie. target their logistics, their fuel supplies, their food supplies, their ammo supplies, and their ability to reinforce their front lines?
Wasting finite resources on killing a few dozen civilians isn't merely morally suspect, its strategically absurd.
I mean great, that the Russians are hastening their own demise............but what a bizarre way to fight a war.
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Bjays92
Senior Member
It really is baffling. Up there with the German's decision to blitz London, yet somehow even worse.
Outside of the immediate war push (which was still majorly flawed but deserves some credit for, I believe, nearly succeeding) there have been next to zero tactical or strategic decisions made by Russia. Putin has consistently been on the back foot and unwilling to do what is necessary because of the optics.
In fact if there was one way to describe this war, it would be that Putin's actions are based on optics and Ukraine's based on practicality. No wonder Ukraine is winning.
As a side note, I heard a snippet from an NPR podcast about the chance of Putin using nukes. They put the likelihood at between 10-20% which is astronomically high. I have no idea how they came to that number, because I personally would've put it at around 5% which even still is arguably alarmist, but if their numbers are right that's borderline unthinkable imo.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Is it really baffling? So much of this war has been performative, vengeful and cruel. And a lot of it is based on the belief that they can intimidate the Ukrainians into surrender and the West into cessation of support.
It's rather ignorant miscalculation. The Russian establishment, particularly Putin and fruitcakes like Dugin, seem to have this bizarre idea that they know us better than we know ourselves. And they have a strong assumption that Westerners are so weak and decadent that we will place material comfort ahead of our professed values.
Hopefully, this finally gets the shackles off on support for Ukraine. There's no real way to stop these strikes without fighters and missiles that can hit their bombers in the rear. Covering a country as large as Ukraine with air defence is impossible. They at least need the jets that will let them mount air patrols to intercept most of the incoming missiles.
Zooming out, we will need to start ramping up some of our defence investment, to send out a proper message to others lying in wait. If the takeaway is that it's only the US and UK that fight for the West, we're going to be in trouble.
Bjays92
Senior Member
More from the Guardian (which I believe has the best daily live thread tracking the war btw)
This is clearly Russia's play. Destroy as much of Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter. I suspect major bombardments will continue. Ukraine needs air defenses asap.
This is clearly Russia's play. Destroy as much of Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter. I suspect major bombardments will continue. Ukraine needs air defenses asap.
Bjays92
Senior Member
Musk finding himself in a bit of an uncomfortable position right now.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Indeed. The US government doesn't take too kindly to defence contractors admitting to being swayed by and publicly lobbying for foreign leaders, especially those who are American adversaries.
Jonny5
Senior Member
How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?
Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you
snyder.substack.com
Here's an interesting take that was recommended to me by someone I trust on these matters. The thesis is that the hard choice period is about to arrive for Putin to either go nuclear or withdraw. They are rapidly exhausting their conventional weapons, and in either case a land war in the winter will be disastrous, for both sides, however for the Russian conscripts on occupied land relying on their supply chains for everything it will be brutal conditions. There are now two clear rivals who have felt bold enough to put themselves in at least a visible position to challenge him, which in itself would be shocking only twelve months ago, and perhaps they want to force the end, one way or the other.
(slightly edited quote - bolding is mine for emphasis)
I take these reports with many grains of salt, but I think the possibility of an attempted coup d'etat in the next 6 months in Russia has increased from a very tiny percentage to a small percentage. Say from 1%, to now at 5%.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Coup not very likely. They are setting up to fight the war of succession when Putin eventually leaves.
Northern Light
Superstar
Northern Light
Superstar
The above got me wondering where the overall levels of foreign support for Ukraine are currently.
The most recent tracking list I can find is current to October 3rd, so would not include the above announcement, obviously.
What's interesting here is there is another graph that shows money out of the door vs announced and Canada's rank is higher:
Of note, as measured by % GDP Canada has given the amount as the U.S. at 0.2%
www.ifw-kiel.de
The most recent tracking list I can find is current to October 3rd, so would not include the above announcement, obviously.
What's interesting here is there is another graph that shows money out of the door vs announced and Canada's rank is higher:
Of note, as measured by % GDP Canada has given the amount as the U.S. at 0.2%
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.
www.ifw-kiel.de
Bjays92
Senior Member
I am happy with Canada's level of support. We need to be doing more to build up our own military however.The above got me wondering where the overall levels of foreign support for Ukraine are currently.
The most recent tracking list I can find is current to October 3rd, so would not include the above announcement, obviously.
View attachment 432218
What's interesting here is there is another graph that shows money out of the door vs announced and Canada's rank is higher:
View attachment 432219
Of note, as measured by % GDP Canada has given the amount as the U.S. at 0.2%
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.