2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

I wonder if they'll have her run against Kathleen Wynne in Don Valley West?

I hadn't thought of that, but that's a very good question.

She may not be everyone's cup of cocoa, but she's bright, articulate and has a much larger view on life than many if not most of the Ontario PCs.
When the OntCons pick someone like Brown for their glorious leader, you have to wonder if they'd ever 'get it' with her. You'd need at least some Michael Chongs and a basic intelligence test to have a membership to vote for her as leader.

 

[Northern Light]

While the actual details of the announcement could be read as a stalling tactic; the public rhetoric on a more 'progressive' Ontario continues unabated.

I more or less support the idea of expanded access to affordable childcare w/the caveats that the devil is in the details, and that there are other priorities I consider more pressing.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...its-to-universally-accessible-child-care.html

 

[steveintoronto]

While the actual details of the announcement could be read as a stalling tactic; the public rhetoric on a more 'progressive' Ontario continues unabated.

I more or less support the idea of expanded access to affordable childcare w/the caveats that the devil is in the details, and that there are other priorities I consider more pressing.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...its-to-universally-accessible-child-care.html

Good 'heads-up' Northern:

[...] A recent city of Toronto study noted that three-quarters of local families can’t afford licensed child care. Middle-income parents are most disadvantaged because their incomes are too high to qualify for fee subsidies but too low to afford the staggering cost of licensed care, the study found.
[...]
Business leaders also praised the initiative.

Richard Koroscil, interim president and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, said it will help business by making it easier for new parents to return to work. Koroscil also lauded the government’s new support for home-based child-care providers, a measure he said would create “more opportunity for people to create their own child-care businesses.”
[...]

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...its-to-universally-accessible-child-care.html

That support from the OCC is crucial. A very interesting proposal, albeit you're right, as always, the 'devil is in the details'.

This is very evolutionary.

 

[TrickyRicky]

I was speaking to a restaurant tenant the other day that has never voted but will be voting PC for the first time in the next election to illustrate a point regarding why Wynne is so disliked by some.

All political ideology has it's strengths and weakness; however, Wynne's centre left policies are highly and particularly inflationary. This kind of inflationary policy is particularly hard to swallow for the middle-class and necessitates additional policy and subsidy to offset the damage, which in term causes more inflation.

Notice how Bay Street and elites are largely agnostic here. That is because asset wealth to a large extent benefits from the inflation. When inflationary policy is adopted it is not ultimately say the building owner that gets screwed, it's the tenants.

This matters to the discussions we have here on this forum because, I think unaware to most, many of the objectives espoused here from density, to transit expansion, to bike lanes and pedestrianization are inherently inflationary measures. They only appear progressive on the surface but the net result is greater inequality.

 

[ttk77]

I think what we may need here is a change of perspective. If you can't afford to pay full time employees a living wage then you don't have a viable business model. Doing otherwise is asking the government to subsidize your business through tax funded social assistance.

 

[steveintoronto]

I think unaware to most, many of the objectives espoused here from density, to transit expansion, to bike lanes and pedestrianization are inherently inflationary measures. They only appear progressive on the surface but the net result is greater inequality.

I commend you on an articulate post, but you're going to have to explain what you mean by "inflationary" and "great inequality". Greater inequality is a product of almost all economies in the western world right now, for reasons I won't detail at this time, but your use of "inflationary", other than housing markets is curious, and even there, at least temporarily, house price index rate of inflation is slowing, ostensibly in great part due to QP intervention.

As to monetary price inflation for Ontario as expressed by the CPI:

http://inflationcalculator.ca/2017-cpi-and-inflation-rates-for-ontario/

The monthly index kicked up in April, but one month does not a trend make. In economics, three months is needed to indicate a trend.

Care to elucidate?

Bike lanes, btw, if you mean by persons cycling instead of driving, are disinflationary in normal economic models. The cost of living is *reduced*. (and attendant health costs and increased productivity)

Again, please explain your reasoning. (Btw: As many economic studies have concluded, for over fifty years (Friedman et al) many of them by Central Banks (BoC doing many) are standing by the 2% p.a. inflation figure with some calling for as high as 3%, albeit that upper limit is contentious, 2% being considered optimal by most)

 

[jje1000]

I think what we may need here is a change of perspective. If you can't afford to pay full time employees a living wage then you don't have a viable business model. Doing otherwise is asking the government to subsidize your business through tax funded social assistance.

I think that's a bit simplistic than just a viable business model- there are also larger global effects at play- i.e. competition with the other jurisdictions/countries, cost of utilities, exchange rate- labour cost is one of the factors in making a business work.

Furthermore, literally all governments subsidize businesses to a certain degree- from blatant government control (i.e. China's state companies) to """subsidies""" and """tax incentives""" (i.e. US & literally every other Western country).

I really do wish that the global playing field was level so that labour would be more valuable- but it isn't, and it's a shame it's that way.

I more or less support the idea of expanded access to affordable childcare w/the caveats that the devil is in the details, and that there are other priorities I consider more pressing.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...its-to-universally-accessible-child-care.html

I think with the Ontario Liberals the devil is always in the details- people will likely hold their noses and vote for the general direction of government, hoping that the details will resolve themselves in the most satisfactory manner possible.

 

[jje1000]

Looking into the Liberal's tactics for 2018- campaigning from the left:

Wynne hopes next election will focus on creating 'fairer society'

Kathleen Wynne is all about the F word.

Listen to Ontario's premier speak these days and chances are she'll talk about fairness. It has become her mantra, an idea she ties to nearly every big announcement she has made lately, from a $15 minimum wage to a basic income pilot to housing market cooling measures and rent control.

Expect that to continue through to next year's election on June 7, 2018.

"Everything we've done will be part of the re-election (bid), but I certainly hope there will be a discussion in the election campaign about how to have a fairer society," Wynne, 64, said in a recent interview.

Wynne said she is "being very intentional about fairness," whether it's by raising the minimum wage, giving low- and middle-income students free post-secondary tuition, a youth pharmacare plan or cutting electricity bills.

Hydro is where the renewed focus on fairness and affordability seems to have started. With voter anger over rising hydro bills reaching a fever pitch, Wynne first admitted at a Liberal convention in November that she made a "mistake" by paying too much attention to the larger problems in the electricity system and not enough to how costs were accumulating on people's bills.

She has always fought for "social justice," Wynne said, but what's changed is how she communicates her plan.

Wynne used the word fair and variations of it about a dozen times while unveiling a basic income pilot project in April and about two dozen times while talking about a $15 minimum wage last month. She has unveiled the Fair Hydro Plan, the Fair Housing Plan and the Fair Workplaces and Better Jobs plan.

"Making sure that we do everything that we can to make people's lives fairer, make the province a fairer place to live, yeah, that has been a focus," Wynne said in the interview.

Greg Sorbara, who was finance minister under Wynne's predecessor Dalton McGuinty, called that platform a game changer.

Sorbara made headlines earlier this year for saying on TVO's "The Agenda" it was "extremely unlikely" the Liberals could win the next election with Wynne at the helm. Her approval ratings have been dismal of late.

"The night I was on 'The Agenda' the prospects looked very dim indeed," he said in an interview. "I think there's more light at the end of the tunnel...There's a sense that the premier herself and the government is really getting its act together and that bodes well in the last year of a mandate."


There is a renewed focus on vulnerable populations, which is often a political strategy of the left, Sorbara said.


"Is (Wynne) occupying all of the space of Andrea Horwath's (NDP) party?" he said. "I think she's occupying a lot of it and I'm not sure that's a bad political strategy."

Wynne swears she is still "leading from the activist centre," her phrase of 2014, but many others have noted her shift to the left. A recent newspaper editorial called her a great NDP premier.

The next election will be the most difficult the Liberals have faced in a long time, Sorbara said.


Anger over hydro bills has not gone away, and opposition politicians will be sure to remind voters that the Liberal plan to cut bills in the short term means ratepayers will end up paying more in the long term. Wynne's decision to partially sell Hydro One to raise infrastructure cash remains unpopular.

In September, not one but two trials begin involving Liberals. One in Sudbury on Election Act bribery charges and another in Toronto on mischief and breach of trust charges over the alleged deletion of emails about gas plant cancellations.

And by that time, the Liberals will have been in power for 15 years. One of their biggest challenges will be fighting an appetite for change, said Genevieve Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.

"It's to send a message that it's not the old Liberals that are in power, but they have new ideas and they're a dynamic and efficient and responsible government and they deserve to be re-elected," she said.


That messaging was on display this weekend as 600 Liberals did a mass canvass in 54 ridings, knocking on 60,000 doors to promote their plan.

Polls have suggested they have a long way to go, but Wynne's laser focus on pocketbook issues could still pay off.

One of the latest polls put the Liberals ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, though within the margin of error, and Wynne's own dismal approval rating saw a slight uptick, though still below 20 per cent.

The Campaign Research poll is an outlier right now, but CEO Eli Yufest said announcements such as youth pharmacare, basic income and a balanced budget have helped the Liberals pull ahead in his polling for the first time in a long time.

"The provincial Liberals will not give up without a fight," he said. "There's no doubt that what they're doing, what they're unveiling in terms of policy is resonating among the electorate."

http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/wynne-h...ll-focus-on-creating-fairer-society-1.3444497

 

[christiesplits]

I wonder what this means for Horwath and the NDP. Do they move even further to the left? Do they piss off their base like last time and bet on a move to the centre?

 

[Northern Light]

I wonder what this means for Horwath and the NDP. Do they move even further to the left? Do they piss off their base like last time and bet on a move to the centre?

Very good question.

While there is some 'policy' room on the left, I think Wynne is pretty much committed to spending every available dollar, and perhaps a few more predicated on a very robust economy.

Other than going 'me too' but 'not her/them'....

That leaves the NDP in the unenviable position of having to propose some sort of tax hike to pay for anything else.

There may be some wiggle room in corporate subsidies and minor boutique programs, but I think it would be a real challenge to find more than maybe 1B in new program spending over 4 years w/o a tax hike.

There is room on corp. tax to go up .5% and still be in line w/most of the country.

That might not cause too much trouble.

But raising the small business rate, or income tax I think is probably dubious from a political perspective.

While I would personally support raising the HST 1% in the near term to support specific spending initiatives, I doubt that this campaign would be the moment to propose that.

Very challenging.

 

[Northern Light]

If the Libs were really seeking to mess w/the NDP, they might move the corp. tax by the 0.5% in their next budget, then immediately announce how they would spend it. (ie. expand pharmacare or w/e)

 

[Northern Light]

For the Conservatives, the challenge will be to appear principled, yet not Harris/Harper 'esque.

Then to figure out how to mostly back the more popular Liberal policies but find credible room to cut a few costs that nag at business and ordinary citizens.

We're I to write a right-wing platform (no one's asked me, LOL)

I think I might start by axing Drive-Clean which most people see as a nuisance fee or no fee.

Then I might try to appease the restaurant sector on min. wage and the like by offering up a Wholesale Beer/Wine market that would save that industry a ton.

I think I'd be inclined to do a lot of 'boutiquing' on fees, as many have risen to borderline silly levels (some campsites in provincial parks on on their way to motel pricing ($70 per night)

I might also have a careful look at whether some types of business and labour might be relieved of professional license requirements. Is this needed for hair dressers? Maybe, but I'm iffy and I suspect the affected parties feel that way more so.

I don't see room for any wholesale tax cuts.

It also strikes me a politically dangerous to propose rolling back an idea like pharmacare, or the tuition grants.

 

[jje1000]

I think a semi-Libertarian approach could be one route that the Conservatives take- especially in positioning themselves contrary to the Liberals & their hands-on approach.

Things like eliminating the Beer Store & "reducing red tape" (whatever that means) will be perpetually popular in this province. Hydro will be another good platform topic, but one that needs a semi-legitimate solution that has some endorsement from the media.

Tax cuts might be tempting but run the gambit of deficit accusations (I.e. " your budget doesn't line up!"). Rural services is a good topic but those regions are already locked down. Corruption/inefficiency/debt is another topic to cover but the public doesn't care unless it's a slam dunk.

This election I think will very much be a vote for/ against the Liberals with all the preemptive platform promises being made at the moment. Again- the Liberals are trying to make it so that the Conservatives and NDP campaign on the Liberal promises rather than on their own.


The NDP I admit are up against a wall with many of their concepts being co-opted by the Liberals. They need to find a way to differentiate their platform from that of the Liberals. I guess a leftist Libertarian approach might also work but there'll be overlap with the Conservatives.

 

[Palma]

I think that's a bit simplistic than just a viable business model- there are also larger global effects at play- i.e. competition with the other jurisdictions/countries, cost of utilities, exchange rate- labour cost is one of the factors in making a business work.

Furthermore, literally all governments subsidize businesses to a certain degree- from blatant government control (i.e. China's state companies) to """subsidies""" and """tax incentives""" (i.e. US & literally every other Western country).

I really do wish that the global playing field was level so that labour would be more valuable- but it isn't, and it's a shame it's that way.



I think with the Ontario Liberals the devil is always in the details- people will likely hold their noses and vote for the general direction of government, hoping that the details will resolve themselves in the most satisfactory manner possible.

To work just to pay daycare does not make sense. Once the math is done because really people rarely never do the complete math which includes not only earnings but deductions, expenses such as transit or gas if using a car to get to work, some meals even if only coffee, etc

 

[jje1000]

Again, hydro is probably the Liberal's biggest weakness- the Liberals need to figure out the message they're sending out:

Customers stunned Hydro One asking for rate increase
Province assures customers that despite rate-increase application, hydro bills will still decrease

Some Hydro One customers want to know why the utility has applied to raise its distribution rates when electricity prices have become unmanageable for so many Ontario residents.

If the company's recent application to the Ontario Energy Board is approved, customers could see an average increase of $2.35 per month over the next five years starting in January 2018.

"I was actually pretty stunned," said Doug Bateson.

Bateson became a Hydro One customer after moving to Greely from Ottawa four years ago. He said he can't understand why the company is applying to increase rates when the government is handing out subsidies to help manage electricity costs.

"We're probably paying about $60 more per month than what we were paying when we were with Ottawa Hydro."

Bateson said his last bill totalled $173.69, with $70.74 going towards the delivery charge. He said although he feels it's a lot to pay, he admits his bill isn't as high as it is for some.

"I'm fortunate enough that it's not crippling me. We are really, really conscious of electricity," he said. "Virtually nothing that we do is done during the peak period."

Bateson said he'd like the Ontario Energy Board to provide a user-friendly breakdown of electricity costs for consumers so they understand how hydro works and why increases are needed.

"Why do we pay what we pay?" he said. "We constantly seem to be having to pay more and more money for it and no one seems to be able to give a real clear, concise — and I would say believable — explanation as to why."

About 45,000 households in Ottawa are Hydro One customers, despite the municipality's efforts to transfer them to Hydro Ottawa.

An aging system
Hydro One says it needs to raise rates to pay for necessary system upgrades and maintenance.

"We have a system that's aging," said Ferio Pugliese, Hydro One's executive vice president of corporate affairs.

"We have poles and wires and stations that are used to service the distribution system and ... that system is aging and in decline. In order to keep it and maintain it so that it's reliable ... we have to continue to invest in it."

Pugliese also pointed even with the proposed modest rate increase, Hydro One customers will still see their hydro bills decrease overall due to the province's recently announced subsidies.

Hydro bills will decrease: province
The Fair Hydro Act 2017, which was passed last week, will lower electricity bills for residential consumers in Ontario by an average of 25 per cent for all residential customers. For rural or low-income Hydro One customers, the hydro savings would be 40 to 50 per cent.

In a statement to CBC News, Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault said regardless of the outcome of the OEB's process, Hydro One customers will not see an increase to their bills.

"We've been clear that Ontarians will see a significant decrease in their overall bills this summer through Ontario's Fair Hydro Plan," said Thibeault.
Nor is it guaranteed that Hydro One's application will be successful.

"We've also been extremely clear that Hydro One — like all utilities in Ontario — does not have the power to set its own distribution rates," said the minister. "It must submit an application with the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), an independent, quasi-judicial body with a mandate to protect Ontario energy consumers. The OEB does not approve all applications, and the Fair Hydro Plan will hold any increases to the rate of inflation for four years."

The OEB will hold community meetings across the province starting next week to provide information about the proposed increase. A meeting has been scheduled in Ottawa's Rockland neighbourhood on Tuesday, June 20 from 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. at the Club Powers at the Columbian Hall at 954 Giroux Street. Doors open at 6:00 p.m.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottaw...companys-application-to-raise-rates-1.4147944