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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Of course there have been some businesses locating in Ontario. But there is a definite trend towards Quebec being able to leverage and target its growth far better than Ontario- something that's being reported throughout media.

Toronto by virtue of its size will attract tech, but there's no doubt that Quebec punches above its weight, especially considering that throughout there's been larger increases in venture capital funding in Quebec, even as Montreal catches up to Toronto.

Canadian venture capital soars in 2015; Quebec and BC catch up to Ontario
http://www.geektime.com/2016/03/08/...rs-in-2015-quebec-and-bc-catch-up-to-ontario/



http://www.geektime.com/2016/11/06/...ing-stage-to-pass-2015-easily-by-end-of-year/

Moreso, we should look at how full-time employment in Quebec has been growing compared to Ontario- where the majority of work created has been part-time.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-economy-forecast-2017-donald-trump-1.3918627

Maybe it's time to stop pretending that things will continue to be all nice and smooth when Quebec is catching up to us- maybe we should start considering that Ontario is underperforming despite our advantages?

Maybe it's time to fix our economic fundamentals rather than trying to patch things up with rebates after the mess has been made?

There's no doubt a change of government is absolutely necessary as the Liberals have grown stale, but what new government is necessary (a purged Liberal government, Conservatives, NDP , etc.) is up for debate.

And here's the latest RBC forecast predicting Ontario will lead all Canadian provinces in growth in 2017.

Continued, in its Ontario-specific snapshot: In a world of slower economic growth, Ontario’s performance in the past three years—an average of growth rate of 2.6% annually—is probably as good as it gets for a large, mature and diversified economy.

The tone of economic indicators has been generally positive recently, consistent with our view that most sectors of Ontario’s economy firmly remain in expansion mode. Sustained job creation—employment has risen by more than 100,000 in the six months ending in January 2017—and a downwardly trending unemployment rate—to an eight-year low of 6.2% in recent months—instill a fair degree of confidence among households.

So, maybe it's time to stop pretending that the Ontario economy isn't doing well compared to other provinces.
 
Maybe. But predictions are different from results- in 2007 did anyone think the Saudis would try to take down shale oil (damaging Alberta's boom), or that a isolationist figure would be elected president of the US? Or heck even closer- that Quebec would ever be able to balance its budget or Ontario hydro to become as much of an issue that it's become?
 
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Maybe. But predictions are different from results- in 2007 did anyone think the Saudis would try to take down shale oil (damaging Alberta's boom), or that a isolationist figure would be elected president of the US? Or heck even closer- that Quebec would ever be able to balance its budget or Ontario hydro to become as much of an issue that it's become?

Oh, I agree. And there have been more than 100,000 new jobs created in Ontario since this time last year, alone. You said the majority of those jobs are full-time. That is untrue; of the 107,500 new jobs in Ontario in the last year, 6,800 of them were part-time.

How did Quebec do over that stretch? It added 83,000 new jobs, of which 28,100 were part-time.

Actual stats, rather than unfounded assertions, are fun (at least if you're lucky enough to live in Ontario).
 
Oh, I agree. And there have been more than 100,000 new jobs created in Ontario since this time last year, alone. You said the majority of those jobs are full-time. That is untrue; of the 107,500 new jobs in Ontario in the last year, 6,800 of them were part-time.

How did Quebec do over that stretch? It added 83,000 new jobs, of which 28,100 were part-time.

Actual stats, rather than unfounded assertions, are fun (at least if you're lucky enough to live in Ontario).

Please source your stats with a link to back them up.

Statscan states in 2016:

Employment in Quebec rose 2.2% (+90,000) in 2016, primarily in full-time work (+85,000) and driven by gains in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate has trended downward throughout the 12-month period, declining 1.3 percentage points to 6.6%.

In Ontario, employment increased 1.2% (+81,000) in 2016, mainly in part-time work (+74,000). The unemployment rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 6.4%.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170106/dq170106a-eng.htm

It's always nice to be proud of a province (and I love Ontario)- but it's also important to know when we could be doing better. The warnings are all there- it's up to the government to follow them or not.
 
They include:

  • Attorney General Yasir Naqvi, a former Liberal party president who represents the riding of Ottawa Centre. Naqvi is especially popular with the Liberals’ youth wing.
yasir-naqvi.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x625.jpg

(Andrew Vaughan)

Okay, but you aren't gaining any swing Conservative voters.
  • Health Minister Eric Hoskins, the St. Paul’s MPP who backed Wynne after finishing last in the 2013 Liberal leadership contest. A Rhodes scholar, Hoskins is also an Order of Canada recipient for his aid work in overseas war zones.
eric-hoskins.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x567.jpg

(Christopher Katsarov)
My MPP. Terrible, terrible.
  • Finance Minister Charles Sousa, another 2013 leadership also-ran. Sousa will balance the books this spring and the affable Mississauga South MPP’s seat is crucial in the Grit roadmap to electoral victory next year.
charles-sousa.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x578.jpg

(Darren Calabrese)

Terrible, terrible, terrible.
  • Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca, the Vaughan MPP who was instrumental in derailing the Gardiner/DVP toll proposal. Del Duca is presiding over a massive expansion of public transit, including a subway extension to his 905 riding to open this year.

Please, a moratorium on Vaughan politicians in positions of power for the next 30 years.

  • Children and Youth Services Minister Michael Coteau, the Don Valley East MPP, who won praise from the parents of autistic children for a plan to improve therapy. Coteau was also a key player in the successful 2015 Pan Am Games in Toronto.
michael-coteau.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x567.jpg

(Todd Korol)

A genuine who? Patrick Brown was more known when he was selected as leader.
  • Education Minister Mitzie Hunter, the Scarborough-Guildwood MPP. Hunter has quietly and effectively inked union contract extensions with teachers through 2019, eliminating a potential electoral headache for the government next year.
mitzie-hunter.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x567.jpg

(Bernard Weil)
Ahahahahahaha, please no.

  • Former minister Sandra Pupatello, the runner-up to Wynne in the 2013 Liberal race. Pupatello, now a successful businesswoman, is a populist firebrand who carries little of the baggage from McGuinty's scandal-plagued final years and none from the Wynne era.
sanda-pupatello.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x614.jpg

(Nathan Denette)

Yes please.

My quick initial and little-thought reactions to the potential candidates listed.

So there would be no shortage of candidates if the premier’s job is vacated.

I beg to differ. There is so much negative baggage to nearly every one of these candidates. Especially the ones close to the Wynne government, they have even more baggage than Wynne had with McGuinty.

I would support Pupatello though. The Italian last name will help marginally win some 905 Tory ridings too (yes, the cynic in me says that matters after witnessing campaigns up-close). I wonder how strong of a campaigner she is, because we know Patrick Brown is a very strong campaigner.

Are there any strong backbenchers in the Liberal party that might be potential contendors?

As for Michael Chong, since he was name-dropped the other page, I would much rather he becomes the leader of the PC party of Ontario following Brown then run for the provincial Liberals. He is more useful to modernizing the PCs and reigning them back to the centre as a viable option then he is as the head of the Liberals, alienating the left-wing of the base. Chong would win an election though, either as a PC or Liberal.
 
Ontario on track to balance budget next month

Ontario will “absolutely” balance its books for the first time in almost a decade regardless of what is in Wednesday’s federal budget, says provincial Finance Minister Charles Sousa.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...io-on-track-to-balance-budget-next-month.html



Ontario PC leader pledges to scrap cap-and-trade, restore auditor’s veto on government ads

Patrick Brown promises to scrap cap-and-trade and restore auditor’s veto over government ads if PCs win in 2018.


Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown is making some promises he may have to keep if he wins next year’s Ontario election.

On Tuesday, Brown vowed to withdraw the province from the Western Climate Initiative, which it joined in 2010 in partnership with Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, California, and six other American states.

The Conservative chief, who leads Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne in public opinion polls, has been deliberately coy about his plans for governing after the June 7, 2018 vote.

With a policy conference set for November in Toronto, the Tories want to make as few commitments as possible in order to appease grassroots members and avoid the missteps that have kept them in opposition since 2003.

But as Ontario’s first carbon-price auction kicks off Wednesday, Brown said he would yank the province from the Western Climate Initiative bloc that works on joint strategies to reduce greenhouse gases.

“We would want to exit from this framework as quickly as possible,” he told reporters. He said the party’s policy advisory committee is examining the legal implications.

The comments from Brown, who has, instead, promised a carbon tax the Liberal government says would be more expensive than its cap-and-trade program, could have an impact as companies decide how much to bid on carbon credits in the auction, which takes place from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

Fuming about a new radio advertising blitz by the provincial government promoting the cut in hydro rates of 25 per cent, Brown vowed to restore the auditor general’s power to veto government advertising.

While former Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty gave the auditor supreme oversight of such ads in 2004 to eliminate partisan messaging at taxpayer expense, his successor Kathleen Wynne watered down those regulations in 2015.


“I absolutely feel it should be strengthened again,” said Brown, who has complained the hydro ads are in contempt of the legislature because MPPs have not yet voted on legislation to implement Liberal’s plan to cut rates.

“There’s a reason they stripped the auditor general of the powers to review (government advertising). This is an abuse of taxpayer dollars. These are partisan ads.”

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said her party would “absolutely” restore the auditor general’s powers over advertising.

“There’s a practically invisible line between the Liberals’ partisan activities and their governing.”


Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault has defended the ads, saying it’s legitimate to let citizens know their hydro bills will be going down this summer.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...-restore-auditors-veto-on-government-ads.html
 
I'm almost certain than Eric Hoskins will run for the OLP leadership after the election. I can't see an ambitious, Oxford trained doctor and Order of Canada recipient sitting in the backbenches of a third party.
 
'Extremely unlikely' Liberals can win election under Wynne, says Greg Sorbara

One of the most senior figures among the Ontario Liberals, Greg Sorbara, believes the party is in grave danger of losing the 2018 election and is urging Kathleen Wynne to consider stepping down.

Sorbara served as finance minister, Ontario Liberal Party president and campaign chair during his 30-year career in politics.


"There's a whole lot of people in the Ontario Liberal party who think that it's all over," Sorbara said Tuesday night in an interview on TVO's The Agenda with Steve Paikin.

Sorbara said Wynne has not sought his advice but he would tell her that it is "extremely unlikely" that she will win the next election.

"You have to ask yourself premier, whether given that scenario, it's better to step down before the next election," Sorbara said. "The (polling) numbers do not lie and the ability to win the next election is in grave grave doubt."

On the same program, one of the current Liberal campaign co-chairs, Tim Murphy, defended Wynne.

"I talk to lots of Liberals and not one of them wants her to go. Not a single one," said Murphy. "She's our best asset."

Tim Murphy is co-chair of the Ontario Liberal Party's 2018 election campaign. (McMillan LLP)


Wynne has said repeatedly she intends to stay on as leader to fight the June 2018 election.

On Wednesday, Sorbara clarified that he believes it is possible that Wynne can pull out a victory.


"Kathleen is a very good campaigner," Sorbara said in a phone interview with CBC News. "She needs at least to ask the question if someone else can turn around the fortunes of the party."


Sorbara lobbied for Wynne to become leader

Sorbara was Liberal campaign co-chair when Dalton McGuinty resigned as premier in 2012, triggering the party leadership race that Wynne won.

In his memoir, "The Battlefield of Ontario Politics," Sorbara says he used his influence behind the scenes on the day of the leadership convention to help Wynne, including encouraging candidate Eric Hoskins to take his delegates to Wynne after the first ballot. He also told reporters that Wynne's speech was "the best leadership convention speech" he had ever heard.

Sorbara served on Wynne's transition team. but he soon stepped down as the party's campaign chair and fundraising chair and played no role in the Liberals' 2014 election win.

Deputy Premier Deb Matthews has previously dismissed talk of dissension in the Liberal ranks.


"Kathleen Wynne has really strong support in our caucus, in our party membership," Matthews told CBC News earlier this month, calling Wynne the best person to lead the party into the election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greg-sorbara-kathleen-wynne-ontario-liberals-1.4036033
 
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Patrick Brown is entirely beatable. It's not impossible for Wynne to do it with enough of a corse correction between now and early 2018 and with policies like labour reform that are very popular with voters and that the Conservatives can't compete on.

But should the Liberals risk it? I find it more likely that many voters stay home rather than vote for Wynne. A new leader with fresh political capital like Eric Hoskins could even the field against Brown. Without the Wynne handicap, I think that the Liberals would have an edge.

My strategy to continue the Liberal domination of this province would be to have an inclusive Liberal leadership convention in the Fall, allowing Ontarians a chance at picking Wynne's successor, giving at least the perception that it's Ontarians choice vs Patrick Brown, rather than the "Liberal pick".
 
On the other hand, I was open to the possibility of voting NDP until Horwath showed her true stripes and refused to take responsibility for triggering an unnecessary election and losing the NDP's only bargaining chip. She should have stepped down.

David Miller has been coming out of the woods lately. He had refused to comment on politics until recently when he's suddenly doing the interview circuit. I'd vote for David Miller for Premier in a heartbeat.
 
My strategy to continue the Liberal domination of this province would be to have an inclusive Liberal leadership convention in the Fall,
Just watched the TVO vid linked above, it's compelling viewing. The consensus amongst the panel is that it would have to be this June rather than the Fall, if at all.
I'd vote for David Miller for Premier in a heartbeat.
That's an interesting point, albeit Miller states "No, no and no" about that. So does Bob Rae, although in Rae's case, how do you step down from the national level back to provincial? What an incredible loss of talent...

Miller for provincial Dippers? Phhhhh....he was hoping federal. Some retrospect:
David Miller’s name is being floated for the NDP’s top spot, but can anyone from Toronto win (again)?

By John Michael McGrath | August 29, 2011 AT 11:38 am
[...]
http://torontolife.com/city/toronto-politics/david-miller-leadership-speculation/

[...]
David Miller was a long-time supporter of the New Democratic Party. He ran as an NDP candidate in a provincial by-election earlier in his career, and was then thought of as an excellent prospect for provincial leader. He kept a poster of Tommy Douglas in his office and never abandoned his principles.

However, about mid-way through his term, Mayor Miller quietly stopped renewing his NDP membership card and let it be known that he no longer supported his party. Somewhere along the line, perhaps Mr. Miller will write his memoirs and explain what happened there. I'll just point out the effect. Mr. Miller achieved no benefit whatsoever from stepping away from his strongest supporters (not forgetting the tragically familiar story of the municipal unions) and moving closer to fair-weather friends - a good number of whom abandoned him, and the mayoral candidate seeking to carry forward his agenda, when the weathervane tilted. [...]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ons-learned-from-david-miller/article1370584/

Something from The Agenda panel discussion that becomes very clear is the *ingrained intransigence* to leadership change in the Ont Libs hierarchy, and probably the others. I don't see how Wynne can win, but I can see how the Libs could. And I'm on record as claiming "anyone but Wynne or her cabinet", which rules out some powerful contenders, like Hoskins. What it might take is someone from the federal level to parachute in. And to counter that, ditto for the Cons. If the Libs put up a real contender (and the polls for Wynne are abysmal), the Cons have a problem with Brown. It might take a Chong to ring the gong.

Note that the "provincial unions" were the death knell of both Miller and Rae. The NDP continues to be dragging that anchor...
 

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