2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

Ontario voters are being played yet again, only this time it's the NDP that's the Establishment's favored anti-Tory trophy/bobble.

 

[King of Kensington]

And if he *does* win his own seat while losing the election, what are the odds that he'll resign quickly a la Jim Prentice and the NDP will win the ensuing byelection?

Pretty good. Doug would hate operating in a minority legislature or being in opposition.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

It's not about who's the leader for me, it's about the overarching vision for the province.

I don't buy Ford's vision for the province. We've had 4 years of Ford vision for the City. I was left disgusted. Unlike the City which is a creature of the province, Ford could do actual damage as Premier.

I would have been fine with Brown's vision, or Mulroney's, or Elliot's vision of the Province in contrast.

You can say that Ford =/= the PCs. But as Premier, Ford gets to choose who sits in the cabinet, and I can assure you that it won't be the Brown/Mulroney/Elliot supporters within the caucus that receives those cabinet positions.

The vision of a conservative-ran, fiscally prudent progressive conservative party that you speak of is not one of the 3 options presented to voters this Provincial election. Instead, we received Ford Nation and friends, a collection of fools and blowhards that are at their root contrarian to notions of conservatism and fiscal responsibility. Why should this be considered a viable option to a lower-case liberal voter like myself, anymore so than the NDP is?

 

[King of Kensington]

But as Premier, Ford gets to choose who sits in the cabinet, and I can assure you that it won't be the Brown/Mulroney/Elliot supporters within the caucus that receives those cabinet positions.

Actually he would have to because he had almost no support from the caucus when he ran - unless he wants to basically freeze out the existing caucus. But it's Ford's party, and these so-called nice, thoughtful, reasonable Conservatives will have to play ball. They sure jumped into line quickly after he became leader.

 

[animatronic]

So do we think there are any more surprises from the three parties left in the bag? Now would be time to drop the next bombshell.

 

[TransitBart]

Actually he would have to because he had almost no support from the caucus when he ran - unless he wants to basically freeze out the existing caucus. But it's Ford's party, and these so-called nice, thoughtful, reasonable Conservatives will have to play ball. They sure jumped into line quickly after he became leader.

It will be a raucous caucus. To go from a sure victory to whatever will transpire will have most spitting nails. I hope we don’t have as many pure toadies for Doug as there are Washington toadies for Trump.

 

[steveintoronto]

Ford would be toast if it was a minority or less. The only value he has to the Party is being hitman. If he can't do that, then the hit's on him.

 

[animatronic]

It will be a raucous caucus. To go from a sure victory to whatever will transpire will have most spitting nails. I hope we don’t have as many pure toadies for Doug as there are Washington toadies for Trump.

It all depends on th election outcome. A PC gov will fall in line. However, nobody will owe Ford anything, esp if the party squeaks through. They’ll keep it all behind closed door.

 

[TransitBart]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...ant-change-but-populism-would-cost-us-dearly/

I like Richard Florida’s thinking generally and I don’t disagree with him here.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Any polling data on University-Rosedale? I assume it's an NDP lock but young volunteers come to my door literally every day which is surprising to me because why put up such an effort if it's not close?

Funny story my wife answered the door for a young volunteer and was pissed off because the doorbell ringing woke up my napping daughter. The volunteer asked if she was considering voting NDP and she said "you just woke up my daughter so not any more!" She's leaning voting Green but Tim Grant came to the door to chat which was nice; however, honestly he sounded cynical in a way that rubbed us the wrong way. Campaign not going so well?

 

[DSC]

Steve Munro has a thoughtful piece at: https://stevemunro.ca/2018/05/28/why-im-supporting-the-ndp-and-andrea-horwath/ Not a surprise that he will support NDP but I like his analysis.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

This is the pattern of recent electoral cycles though. Conservatives poll extremely well in-between elections as they're seen as the main antithesis to out-of-control liberalism, then during campaigns the media/opponents muckrakes and the the party/leader is unable to effectively refute the "scandals" and bring the focus back to their policies. This has happened to John Tory, twice to Tim Hudak and was poised to happen again to Patrick Brown.

I don't think you meant "liberalism" in a way that reflective of what the term actually meant. In any case, don't blame the media and the opponents - each and every time the words came from the mouth of the party leaders.

AoD

 

[John_Dee]

Pretty good. Doug would hate operating in a minority legislature or being in opposition.

It goes further than that: He's in this entirely because of Ego with a Capital "E," and fully expected to be anointed the One In Charge as his just right and due. (Of course, he's managed to climb farther than I would have originally expected, but he had to cheat to pull that off, didn't he?) Ford's simply not going to be able to handle anything short of a majority government. (Never mind the humiliating prospect of not winning his seat in Etobicoke or out-and-out losing the election to Wynne or Howarth. Or - heh, heh! - both.) Quite apart from anything else, that's going to be far too much in the way of actual work*, and we know from past performance how little interest Dofo has in that.

*Obviously, you could say the same thing if he does win a majority government, but that would at least include the compensation of being Mr. Big Shot, who gets to yell at people and order everyone around. And you know, even then I can't help wondering if Ford is delusional and sloppy and lazy and just plain arrogant enough to think he can get away with half-assing things as Premiere the way he did when he was a city councilor and "co-Mayor." I'd be willing to bet that, yes, he does indeed think exactly that.

 

[christiesplits]

I wonder if the Liberals might be able to 'cushion' their defeat by saving a half dozen or so seats in the 905? I don't think 'strategic' voting' is as much of a factor in these ridings, particularly the ethnoburbs, where "left wing vs. right wing" doesn't really resonate. I'm thinking Mississauga, Brampton and some of York Region.

 

[to_l]

It goes further than that: He's in this entirely because of Ego with a Capital "E," and fully expected to be anointed the One In Charge as his just right and due. (Of course, he's managed to climb farther than I would have originally expected, but he had to cheat to pull that off, didn't he?) Ford's simply not going to be able to handle anything short of a majority government. (Never mind the humiliating prospect of not winning his seat in Etobicoke or out-and-out losing the election to Wynne or Howarth. Or - heh, heh! - both.) Quite apart from anything else, that's going to be far too much in the way of actual work*, and we know from past performance how little interest Dofo has in that.

*Obviously, you could say the same thing if he does win a majority government, but that would at least include the compensation of being Mr. Big Shot, who gets to yell at people and order everyone around. And you know, even then I can't help wondering if Ford is delusional and sloppy and lazy and just plain arrogant enough to think he can get away with half-assing things as Premiere the way he did when he was a city councilor and "co-Mayor." I'd be willing to bet that, yes, he does indeed think exactly that.

Oh, totally. All he sees is the big shiny title and not any of the responsibilities or work involved. He seems not to have anything even remotely approaching a work ethic or personal responsibility nor does he seem to be able to think beyond his most immediate wants and desires.