2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

Just up at the Globe headline story:
GLOBE INVESTIGATION
Battle for the ballot: Inside the bitter nominations that divided the Ontario PCs

KAREN HOWLETT AND JILL MAHONEY
PUBLISHED MAY 18, 2018UPDATED 9 MINUTES AGO
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...side-the-bitter-nominations-that-divided-the/

 

[steveintoronto]

Oh, and poll-time again.

For those hoping for a minority/coalition situation:
Innovative: 35 PC, 31 NDP, 27 Lib, 6 Green.

For the PC-landslide status quo:
Mainstreet (who else?): 42 PC, 29 NDP, 22 Lib, 5 Green.

Mmmm...Greens. Who woulda guessed? 5 in one polling result, half a dozen the other:

Show me the proof *at the present* that the Ontario Greens are headed for anything other than Schreiner in Guelph at best.

 

[King of Kensington]

The University-Rosedale riding appears to be predominantly Tim Grant signs! Did extensive walking through it yesterday, purposely taking as many of the side streets as possible, and many of those don't just have his regular sign up, they have the large one, bigger than Tim could deliver on his bike, which I saw him riding around on with the smaller lawn signs to plant.

A corner is turning for the Greens. I'm now able to believe that they will get two or more seats this time round. And here's what the larger signs indicate (I didn't see any of the largest for the other three): Pride in staking out a new belief. I don't share all their beliefs, but I'm incredibly moved by their faith in a new way of doing things.

Bring it on...

Tim Grant was president of the Harbord Village Residents Association, and signs especially well there. I know Tim - very nice guy. I kinda wish he had run for city council last time. In fact, I voted for him in the last provincial election.

But I think he's going to have a harder time in this election as the progressive vote will coalesce around Jessica Bell, who has a very active campaign and a lot of support from the NDP. The NDP central campaign is far more Toronto-friendly than last time.

 

[steveintoronto]

^ @King of Kensington I agree on Grant being more a 'Council' type, especially with his upright bike and demeanour. That being said, he'd be wasted at City Hall. I'm so incredibly cynical about ever moving the concrete aside to let the daylight in there. Jessica Bell impresses me. I'd noted in a prior post that she should be Transport Min if the Dips get elected, but Horwath would brow-beat the common sense out of her, like her expressed views on the SSE and more. She excelled in The Agenda Transit special,

and had to bite her lip more than a few times to stay 'on message' with the NDP platform. There was a distinct camaraderie on the set between her and Grant, but I suspect with the polls looking optimistic for the Greens, Grant has a position cemented with the party.

If a coalition is formed NDP-Green...I could see him working with/for Bell.

Excellent surmise of the debate here:
https://canada.constructconnect.com...8/05/candidates-spar-transport-futures-debate

And I had to cringe on Bell's behalf re:

While she was the head of TTCriders, the organization supported LRT instead of a subway for Scarborough but, she said, given the NDP believes in partnering with municipalities and the City of Toronto supports a subway, the party says the subway should go ahead.

She has to wear the Dipper sauce, but she showed great aplomb in making the reference second-person, not hers. She's got the 'stuff' down well. I think Howarth might have trouble keeping her contained though, unless wearing flippers is part of the costume.

 

[freshcutgrass]

Just looked at the CBC election vote compass. https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/home

It looks like even they agree that the PC's are the centrist party of the lot. When I take the measurements, here is how far they are from the centre
PC = 2.1 points.
LIB = 3.0 points.
GRN = 4.0 points.
NDP = 4.3 points.
Alternatively, you can say that the Liberals are 40% farther away from the centre than are the PC's.

View attachment 144016

It's all nonsense, as nobody involved thinks the imaginary "centre" is a more ideal position over their actual position.

 

[JGHali]

When's the next debate?

 

[narduch]

Did this happen under Brown or Ford?

 

[steveintoronto]

Did this happen under Brown or Ford?

Initially under Brown, there are close connections, but the "rot" continues under Ford.

Was just watching two Agenda episodes from the last two days. The interview with Horwath I could only bare to watch half way through. I'm equally cynical on all of the Three Stooges. It's like deciding which salesperson to choose from knocking at the door to replace your water-heater, the one you'll replace yourself when it needs to be. Horwath has no lack of compulsions, like the other two, of spending your money in ways you wouldn't spend it yourself.

The second Agenda was a review of the interview with Horwath:

John Duffy impressed me, as he has over the years, he 'knew his stuff' far better than the other two party reps. Peggy Nash was out of her depth on many points. I differ from this 'new found old' NDP positioning. Workers Unite is a bit dated. And taxing 'everyone but us' doesn't cut it, from any of the parties.

But the real gem of the episode was Marieke Walsh. Wow...thank God the prodigy can still produce sharp, insightful and dynamic news-hound journos.

Marieke Walsh (@MariekeWalsh) · Twitter
https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh
An Ontario NDP candidate deleted social media posts after iPolitics asked about one that pushed a 9/11 conspiracy theory #onpoli #onelxnipolitics.ca/2018/05/18…
15 hours ago · Twitter
Half an hour after news broke that police were investigating a "data theft" linked to a former PC candidate, @fordnation promised to free the beer #onpoli #onelxn ipolitics.ca/2018/05/18…
18 hours ago · Twitter
#onpoli at the mo pic.twitter.com/7CzW01G…
19 hours ago · Twitter
The York Regional Police Major Fraud Unit is investigating a "data theft" linked to former @OntarioPCParty candidate @simmer_sandhu #onpoli #onelxn ipolitics.ca/2018/05/18…
19 hours ago · Twitter
The Progressive Conservatives say they have not been contacted by police #onpoli #onelxn twitter.com/robertbenzi…
20 hours ago · Twitter

 

[Jasmine18]

Out here in Brampton the liberals are trying hard to stay relevant but the issue is how are those people going to vote that dont put up signs.


With the NDP taking a ton of votes, vote splits should allow the Tories to win most of the seats here.

 

[steveintoronto]

Out here in Brampton the liberals are trying hard to stay relevant but the issue is how are those people going to vote that dont put up signs.

Can't make sense of what point you're trying to make, or if it's sarcasm.

With the NDP taking a ton of votes, vote splits should allow the Tories to win most of the seats here.

But that's the whole point of Libs flocking to the NDP. It's like a boat tipping, once started, it avalanches. And it's started, the polling isn't gospel, but an excellent indicator of trends.

 

[King of Kensington]

Out here in Brampton the liberals are trying hard to stay relevant but the issue is how are those people going to vote that dont put up signs.


With the NDP taking a ton of votes, vote splits should allow the Tories to win most of the seats here.

Not so sure about that. The NDP came in second place in Brampton in the last provincial election.

 

[King of Kensington]

^ @King of Kensington I agree on Grant being more a 'Council' type, especially with his upright bike and demeanour. That being said, he'd be wasted at City Hall. I'm so incredibly cynical about ever moving the concrete aside to let the daylight in there. Jessica Bell impresses me. I'd noted in a prior post that she should be Transport Min if the Dips get elected, but Horwath would brow-beat the common sense out of her, like her expressed views on the SSE and more. She excelled in The Agenda Transit special, and had to bite her lip more than a few times to stay 'on message' with the NDP platform. There was a distinct camaraderie on the set between her and Grant, but I suspect with the polls looking optimistic for the Greens, Grant has a position cemented with the party.

Don't get me wrong - I think Tim would make a good MPP as well. I'm just saying it would have been easier to get elected at the municipal level where there is no formal party affiliation.

If there was PR, Tim could be a Green MPP for Toronto. But it's very difficult to get a Green elected under FPTP.

 

[syn]

Next debate to take place Sunday, May 27th at the CBC Broadcast Centre.


Still sounds "totally legit"...

The race in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas was hard fought between Ben Levitt, a political aide for a federal Tory MP; Vikram Singh, a lawyer; Jeff Peller, whose family owns the Peller Estates winery.

At the high school where the vote was held, veteran strategist John Mykytyshyn noticed Mr. Dhillon, who was working for Mr. Peller’s campaign, in the parking lot greeting large coaches as busloads of voters arrived.

Behind the scenes, The Globe has learned, a printer was cranking out fake Rogers utility bills and Scotiabank statements in a classroom, according to multiple sources.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...side-the-bitter-nominations-that-divided-the/

This is almost unbelievable.

Did this happen under Brown or Ford?

Doesn't matter. Seems like the organization is rotten to the core. Fedeli stated the party had been cleared of all rot once Brown was removed - that clearly wasn't the case.

 

[John_Dee]

Seems like the organization is rotten to the core. Fedeli stated the party had been cleared of all rot once Brown was removed - that clearly wasn't the case.

It's fascinating when you think about it: From the looks of things, there was plenty of genuine cause for wanting to get rid of Brown. And instead of using legitimate means of removing a corrupt and self-serving creep, certain figures within the Tory Party engineered a sleazy palace coup against the man, organizing a putsch against him on false grounds while choosing to keep the corruption, cheating and anti-democratic tactics he used firmly in place. Further, they ignored/bypassed the most mainstream candidates running in their dumpster fire of a "leadership" contest in favor of a rank scumbag, demagogue, rabble rouser, brazen liar and borderline criminal - and a purveyor of dangerous, extremist politics, mustn't forget that - whose past actions (to put it politely) make the previous guy look like a goddamned choirboy by comparison. And all this within an ongoing framework of scandals with no end in sight and a demonstrable pattern of incompetence that is frankly shocking to see in a major political party.

The Liberals suck, nobody denies that. But the people who somehow manage to claim with a straight face that the Cons will be any kind of improvement really don't have a leg to stand on. This election is like watching a slow motion disaster unfolding in real time.

 

[JWBF]

This story has legs but it has zero benefits to the liberals but to the NDP instead.
As all the media focus is what the NDP is saying...its like Wynne has ceased to be relevant.

Also The riding in question is already controlled by the NDP and with No PC candidate there, it pretty much means one less seat the liberals can pick up.

I actually live in this riding and the NDP are running a very strong grassroots campaign here and will be voting for them.

A thousand cuts are just as damaging.