2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[jje1000]

Ontario Chamber of Commerce report says businesses 'lack confidence' in economy

A new report from the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) paints a gloomy picture of the Ontario economy, arguing that businesses are increasingly "risk-averse" and afraid to reinvest their money.

The 2017 Ontario Economic Report, the first of its kind from the OCC, polled the chamber's members about how well they are doing and how they perceive the economic landscape around them.

It found that though about 60 per cent of members are confident in their own organization, only a quarter feel confident about Ontario's economic outlook.

"There's more prosperity — liquid assets — than there has been in the last decade or so," said OCC vice-president of policy and government relations Karl Baldauf. "But [businesses] are not investing it because they are concerned about the state of the Ontario economy."

Speaking on CBC Radio's Metro Morning, Baldauf explained that a protracted period of slow growth was contributing to what he described as a "general malaise."

"We all thought that by now we'd be moving beyond that two per cent growth that we've [been] experiencing. But we're not."

Baldauf ran through a number of other reasons why businesses aren't feeling confident, among them the uncertainty of a "transitional" economy.

"We know we want to get to more of a technology-driven, knowledge-based economy, but it's not happening as quickly as many had hoped, and because of that uncertainty that exists, businesses are holding on to their capital," he said.

Meanwhile, he said, those same businesses are paying more and more for "input costs" like electricity.

"The experience that many households have with the rising electricity rates — they are amplified for many businesses."

Baldauf also noted that political changes, such as the recent boost to the Canada Pension Plan, take their toll because they create a "cycle of uncertainty" in which businesses are less likely to hire new people.

The OCC report mentions three possible avenues for turning around the "diminished profitability" and "sluggish market activity" they found.

First, Baldauf said that Ontario needs to focus on the problem of "jobs without people" through education and skills training. Second, he said, there needs to be more investment in infrastructure.


The third policy avenue identified by the OCC is healthcare, which Baldauf says needs a boost from the province.

"There is not enough investment happening by our public health care system into Ontario's innovative health care solutions," he explained.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/programs/metromorning/occ-report-lack-of-confidence-1.3970323

 

[jje1000]

Though this is a poll (and polls this far away from the election are basically useless), the Liberals need to do more for Toronto instead of assuming that the city will continue to vote for them! Perhaps a first thing Wynne could do would be to accelerate GO RER and advance the increase of gas tax funding to before the election.

Basically support is as expected- PC support is higher among the older demographics, the college educated, and the wealthier portion of the population, while the Liberals are more popular among the younger demographics, along with post-graduates and the low-income demographics.

In Toronto, Liberals and Progressive Conservatives Tied

It’s Competitive despite historically low approval rating for sitting Premier

Toronto, February 10th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1,090 Toronto voters, support amongst decided and leaning city of Toronto voters is statistically tied between the Progressive Conservatives (35%) and the Liberals (34%). The NDP would receive (22%), Green (7%), with (2%) to other parties.

PCs lead, but not by much

If Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives hope to form government in 2018 they must make seat gains in what has been, since 2003, the Liberal Fortress of Toronto. While Brown’s PCs currently lead amongst voters (35%), their lead is not strong (1%). Support for the PCs is most common amongst those aged 45-54 (41%), 55-64 (43%), and those 65 and above (40%). They also have strong support amongst high income-earners with (43%) amongst $60,000-$80,000, (36%) amongst $80,000-$100,000, and (42%) amongst those earning $100,000-$250,000, as well as those who have completed college or university (38%).

Liberals not out of it

Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are competitive in Toronto, despite a historically low level of approval for the premier (Nov 23rd: 13%), which shows how strong the Liberal brand is in the city. Support for the Liberals amongst voters is common amongst those aged 18-34 (34%), those earning less than $20,000 (48%), and those earning between $20,000 and $40,000 (41%). They are also well supported by those with a post-graduate degree (40%), and those who primarily take transit to work (39%). “Progressive Conservatives in the city should hope to compare more favourably against the Liberals than a statistical tie, given Kathleen Wynne’s historically low approval, and how many provincial seats are at stake in Toronto,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2662/in-toronto-liberals-and-progressive-conservatives-tied/



Some good news though:

Ontario announces new OSAP program, free tuition for 210,000 students

http://www.yorkregion.com/news-stor...ap-program-free-tuition-for-210-000-students/

 

[Amare]

Having a 13% approval rating is thoroughly embarrassing, especially with the majority mandate she was given. How anyone manages to accomplish that kind of feat is beyond me.

 

[Towered]

The final straw for me was when she backstabbed Toronto by cancelling the tolls, effectively setting back transit a good decade or more. Simply disgusting, and it won't help her one bit in the election. She has zero integrity in my books after pulling such a mind-numbingly cynical move. I definitely will not vote for a repugnant party like the Conservatives, and the NDP have abandoned their principles, so I guess I'll either sit the next election out or I'll spoil my ballot.

I'm utterly discouraged by the politics in this province.

 

[WislaHD]

I'll vote Liberals if Patrick Brown decides to eliminate the Greenbelt Act.

But that would be a protest vote against Patrick Brown more so than an endorsement of the Liberals.

 

[jje1000]

High Ontario electricity rates concern car makers

The soaring price of electricity in Ontario is top of mind for the province’s auto makers, but it should not yet be considered a competitive disadvantage when the province is bidding for new investment by car companies, a new study concludes.

Electricity rates are higher in Ontario than they are in the 10 largest auto-producing U.S. states, a study by the Automotive Policy Research Centre at McMaster University in Hamilton, says.

They rose by 26 per cent between 2010 and 2015 in Ontario, almost double the next worse performing auto making jurisdiction, which was Indiana.

But measured as a percentage of vehicle production in U.S. dollars, electricity rates fell in Ontario in that period, although the decline was not as steep as it was in the top auto-producing states examined by the study.

While rates are higher in Ontario, the cost of electricity is only $6 more per vehicle assembled in the province than it is in Michigan, the state with the next highest costs and just $18 compared with Kentucky, where costs are lowest.

“Our research indicates that even though rates have been described as a major cause of the deteriorating competitiveness of Ontario’s manufacturing industry, the size of the gap is not currently large enough to warrant such characterizations; certainly, not in the context of a $30,000 vehicle,” the centre’s Greig Mordue and Kelly White concluded.

But that led them to ask why it has become such a hot-button issue among auto makers.

They concluded that the doubling of hydro rates in Ontario since 2006 (compared with increases equal to inflation in U.S. jurisdictions) has caught the attention of senior executives and a new pricing scheme in the province has caused those executives to pay much closer attention to their electricity bills.

“Even though Canadian plants compete with U.S. plants for mandates and are assessed or benchmarked against those plants in U.S. dollar terms, these are the realities: The plants are located in Canada; executives in Canada are influenced by Canadian dialogue; electricity bills incurred in Canada are paid in Canadian dollars,” the authors said.

The new pricing scheme, called the Industry Conservation Initiative, enables large power users to reduce their costs by operating during times when electricity use is not at its peak.

That’s difficult for auto plants – some of which in Ontario are running on three shifts a day – because of the nearly impossible task of shifting employee work hours on a daily basis and the intricate industrial ballet involved in supplying such plants with seats, tires, sheet metal and other parts.

Nonetheless the pricing scheme means executives must make operational decisions up to 15 times a year about how and when they will use electricity, the study said.

“Each time this happens, it causes them to analyze and assess electricity costs and each time that process unfolds, a perception is reinforced that Ontario provides an uncompetitive environment in so far as its electricity pricing system is concerned.”

The study noted that costs in Ontario have risen in part because of the phase-out of coal-fired hydro generating plants.

If the new Trump administration follows through on promises to cancel restrictions on the use of coal, electricity could become more of a competitive factor for auto makers in Canada, the study said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ity-rates-concern-car-makers/article33993780/

 

[christiesplits]

The final straw for me was when she backstabbed Toronto by cancelling the tolls, effectively setting back transit a good decade or more. Simply disgusting, and it won't help her one bit in the election. She has zero integrity in my books after pulling such a mind-numbingly cynical move. I definitely will not vote for a repugnant party like the Conservatives, and the NDP have abandoned their principles, so I guess I'll either sit the next election out or I'll spoil my ballot.

I'm utterly discouraged by the politics in this province.

It's a sad day when all three major parties oppose Toronto using revenue tools.

 

[Freedom]

Only a complete and utter moron could believe that the problem with Ontario is a lack of "revenue tools".

 

[WislaHD]

Only a complete and utter moron could believe that the problem with Ontario is a lack of "revenue tools".

Not for Ontario.

For Toronto though...

 

[ADRM]

The final straw for me was when she backstabbed Toronto by cancelling the tolls, effectively setting back transit a good decade or more. Simply disgusting, and it won't help her one bit in the election. She has zero integrity in my books after pulling such a mind-numbingly cynical move. I definitely will not vote for a repugnant party like the Conservatives, and the NDP have abandoned their principles, so I guess I'll either sit the next election out or I'll spoil my ballot.

I'm utterly discouraged by the politics in this province.

How did canceling Toronto tolls "set back transit a good decade or more"? Toronto will get revenue much more quickly than they would have under the tolls scheme as a result of the decision.

 

[Towered]

How did canceling Toronto tolls "set back transit a good decade or more"? Toronto will get revenue much more quickly than they would have under the tolls scheme as a result of the decision.

You mean the piddly amount that's about half of what the tolls would have raised, if and only if Wynne gets re-elected, which we all know has zero chance of happening? You mean that revenue?

 

[ADRM]

You mean the piddly amount that's about half of what the tolls would have raised, if and only if Wynne gets re-elected, which we all know has zero chance of happening? You mean that revenue?

If you really believe that:
A) $170 million per year is a piddly amount, or;
B) the difference between $170 million and $200 million is the difference between "setting back transit a good decade" and not setting back transit a decade, or;
C) 170 is half of 200

...then you're being wilfully ignorant.

And that's not even taking into account the latter half of your argument, which is just bizarre; you don't like the premier because you (wrongly) accuse her of shirking transit but then acknowledge that one of her transit pledges would be canceled by her replacement?

And all of that doesn't even take into account the fact that, under the tolls plan, a (legitimately) piddly amount would actually be dedicated to transit (hello, Gardiner East rebuild). Which has nothing to do with transit.

 

[jje1000]

Disappointing. Many people were expecting a rate cut of at least 30-40%. And probably no retroactive rebate cheque for the last two years of sky-high rates...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-bills-global-adjustment-kathleen-wynne-1.3975946

With the high cost of electricity the top concern for voters in Ontario, and Wynne's popularity at an all-time low, the Liberals have signalled that tackling hydro bills is their number one priority heading into the spring budget.

I bet that the 8-10% is the max the Liberals can cut atm without cutting into operations/compromising revenue significantly. Not enough unfortunately, and some greater emphasis should be made on commercial/industrial rate cuts as well.

 

[freshcutgrass]

How did canceling Toronto tolls "set back transit a good decade or more"? Toronto will get revenue much more quickly than they would have under the tolls scheme as a result of the decision.

Road tolls are less about revenue and more about political will. The fact that we can't accept road tolls as a revenue alternative means we aren't ready to acknowledge that we need to stop subsidizing car culture. If even left-wing premiers can't accept it yet, you know we are screwed for a while longer.

 

[ADRM]

Road tolls are less about revenue and more about political will. The fact that we can't accept road tolls as a revenue alternative means we aren't ready to acknowledge that we need to stop subsidizing car culture. If even left-wing premiers can't accept it yet, you know we are screwed for a while longer.

I don't disagree with the substance of that, but it's simply not reasonable to suggest, looking solely at the fiscal contribution of revenue from increasing the gas tax vs. the road tolls scheme as it was proposed, that the city gets less money or has to wait longer for it; precisely the exact opposite is true.