2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Towered]

If you really believe that:
A) $170 million per year is a piddly amount, or;
B) the difference between $170 million and $200 million is the difference between "setting back transit a good decade" and not setting back transit a decade, or;
C) 170 is half of 200

...then you're being wilfully ignorant.

And that's not even taking into account the latter half of your argument, which is just bizarre; you don't like the premier because you (wrongly) accuse her of shirking transit but then acknowledge that one of her transit pledges would be canceled by her replacement?

And all of that doesn't even take into account the fact that, under the tolls plan, a (legitimately) piddly amount would actually be dedicated to transit (hello, Gardiner East rebuild). Which has nothing to do with transit.

The number that's been mentioned in the media has been up to 300 million a year from the tolls. You can find quotes from the city manager complaining that Wynne's proposed doubling of gas tax revenues won't even come close to that amount, because 170 is a bit more than half of 300, therefore piddly in comparison. Good luck getting the desperately needed DRL built with that.

And if you think a premier that has consistently polled between 10 and 15% approval has a shot at winning an election just over a year from now, then you're being wilfully ignorant, not me. Even more so if you think the PC's will honour that pledge.

 

[ADRM]

The number that's been mentioned in the media has been up to 300 million a year from the tolls. You can find quotes from the city manager complaining that Wynne's proposed doubling of gas tax revenues won't even come close to that amount, because 170 is a bit more than half of 300, therefore piddly in comparison. Good luck getting the desperately needed DRL built with that.

And if you think a premier that has consistently polled between 10 and 15% approval has a shot at winning an election just over a year from now, then you're being wilfully ignorant, not me. Even more so if you think the PC's will honour that pledge.

The $300 million figure emanated from a tolling level higher than $2 per trip, which would've been politically impossible for the mayor to pursue (and an idea that he repeatedly threw cold water on). It's irrelevant that the gas tax won't raise $300M because there was never a palatable option on the table that would have.

And, per "good luck getting the desperately needed DRL built with that", again: the vast majority of the road tolls revenue was to be directed to financing the reconstruction of the Gardiner East. Tory was very clear about that. This is not about funding the RL vs. not funding the RL, and it was never going to be.

The increased gas tax revenue plan means Toronto gets more money for transit sooner than the road tolls plan would have. That is indisputable if you believe everything the mayor said publicly. And that's what makes the assertion about setting transit back a decade so confounding.

If the core of your distaste with the current government stems from your desire to see more transit built, well, that same government for which you have so much distaste has invested more money in transit than any government in the history of the province.

And part of that is more than $150M in spending on the Relief Line.

 

[freshcutgrass]

I don't disagree with the substance of that, but it's simply not reasonable to suggest, looking solely at the fiscal contribution of revenue from increasing the gas tax vs. the road tolls scheme as it was proposed, that the city gets less money or has to wait longer for it; precisely the exact opposite is true.

As they say...one in the hand, is worth two in the bush. Road tolls are a sustainable, city-controlled revenue source, whereas promised handouts from upper levels of governments are not sustainable or reliable sources of revenue. Have we learned nothing????

Besides...who says it is necessarily less money? It could also be the same or more as well.

It also serves the added purpose of controlling traffic congestion. You just dial in the toll to create whatever level of traffic congestion you want to eliminate. Hmmm...trying to think if there is one example of a highway that doesn't have a congestion problem, and how it manages to achieve that. Anybody??

2 bucks is waaaaay too cheap...almost laughable. What was that London charge...11 pounds. What is that in Cdn pesos...$18. ha ha ha

But as you rightly pointed out, Toronto is just not yet ready to face reality.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I also laughed at the 2 dollar toll proposal. 2 dollars? Why am I paying more to board a streetcar than I am to drive a highway? At bare minimum those fantasy (RIP) tolls should have been the same as TTC fare.

I'm a bit of a gambler so call me crazy but I'm putting money on Mr Brown doing one of his "I saw the light" manoeuvres à propos road tolls. The odds are pretty grimy....should be a good payout.

 

[jje1000]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/programs/metromorning/occ-report-lack-of-confidence-1.3970323

Interesting elaboration on the survey from last week- basically businesses are finally doing better, but they're not that sure about the province- hence they're not investing.

We really need some fundamental fixes to hydro along with new housing funding by Ottawa/stronger rent controls to control rent increases. Possibly deal with the empty units in Toronto as well.

Overall, interesting comparing these two main issues to Quebec (cheap hydro & housing).

Ontario business survey illuminating, mystifying

Ontario's businesses are more optimistic about their own futures than they are about the province's economy, the provincial chamber of commerce says, a weird attitudinal split that's making them sit on their abundant resources rather than investing in growth.

The business group surveyed its members for a major report on the economy it released Tuesday. It is both illuminating and mystifying.

For instance, 62 per cent of the businesses surveyed are either somewhat or very confident in their own futures; only 12 per cent are worried. Four in five expect to maintain or increase revenues in the next year and a quarter expect to hire.


But only 24 per cent are confident in Ontario's economy, a gap the chamber struggles to explain.

"Ontario business is in a delicate position," the report says. "Members are unsure of the stability of the wider provincial economy and critical of the impact government policy will have on their organization."

Basically, business leaders think they're going to be fine; they just aren't sure about everybody else.

"I don't know why there's that contradiction," Premier Kathleen Wynne said Tuesday. "We will obviously follow up with the chamber because we are working very closely with them."

The chamber's business prosperity index, which relates what it costs to run a business to how much money and credit is available, is close to a 15-year peak. So businesses have big financial cushions, which ordinarily they'd use to take some risks.


But businesses are investing in the financial markets rather than in increasing production and hiring.

"Investment is being held back because of a high perception of risk. We need immediate action in order for our province to continue to grow and prosper," said chamber president Allan O'Dette.

Members aren't happy about the price of electricity: 73 per cent of them put electricity prices among their top three provincial policy concerns. Businesses want prices that are "predictable, stable and transparent so ratepayers and industry can adequately understand and plan their energy expenditure," the chamber says.

But the biggest problem for Ontario businesses is finding workers.

"A critical threat facing OCC members is that of staffing, and the difficulty (or even outright inability) of hiring the right people for the right job," the report says.

Expensive housing makes it tough for workers to move. Integrating new immigrants so they're work-ready quickly and connecting students to jobs also are challenging, though they're "evidently a priority for the federal and provincial governments," the chamber acknowledges.

Business taxes? Not a big problem. "The past 15 years has seen an improving tax environment for businesses," the report says.

The chamber also likes the massive federal and provincial infrastructure program, billions of dollars' worth of transit, roads, bridges, pipes, health facilities and schools. The chamber is even happy to see a lot of the $160 billion Ontario plans to spend, supplemented by tens of billions more from the federal government, go to projects meant to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and help with climate change.

What might be done to make business leaders feel more optimistic? Maybe therapy, or just some exercise and fresh air and sound sleep. Spending less time listening to people who insist Ontario is a hellhole. Growth is uneven but much of the province is doing OK.

As Wynne said, "Ontario is leading economic growth in the country this year. We are right at the top in terms of economic growth." The trick is getting anyone to believe it.

http://www.shorelinebeacon.com/2017/02/08/ontario-business-survey-illuminating-mystifying

 

[freshcutgrass]

We really need some fundamental fixes to hydro along with new housing funding by Ottawa/stronger rent controls to control rent increases. Possibly deal with the empty units in Toronto as well.

Overall, interesting comparing these two main issues to Quebec (cheap hydro & housing).

Agree that Hydro is something they shouldn't be messing around with....fix it. We have been complacent for a long time about it because we've enjoyed the cheapest power in the world for a very long time, and now just realizing that power is just as much a basic necessity as health care and education, and that it needs to remain a publicly controlled and subsidized entity. Letting that slip into private hands would be a fundamental blow to our standard of living.

Rent controls can't really be any more improved...all there is is the annual increases to cover inflation (which it normally doesn't). Over guideline increases are maxed out at 3% which generally not cover landlord costs, especially when dealing with old stock buildings and their massive upgrade costs (balcony rebuilds, etc)

The province should not be treating landlords like quasi social workers to handle what should be their responsibility....housing those who need subsidized housing.

You know corporate interests have gained a lot of ground when left-wing controlled prov governments behave and have policies that resemble former conservative governments.

 

[Freedom]

Rent control only applies to buildings occupied before 1991.

 

[jje1000]

The main issue with rents is that there are many recent instances where the rents have been rising at a far greater rate than inflation:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...shed-by-rent-hike-exemptions/article33806825/
http://www.blogto.com/city/2017/02/price-rent-toronto-apartment-increase-2017/

This is both an issue of the high demand for rentals in parts of Ontario (especially Toronto) and from what I would imagine- landlords wanting to pocket more money. As such, the issue is that affordability for both the middle-class (professionals, families) along with the lower-class is slipping away.

Obviously the solution would be to increase supply- but this takes time to solve (unless you loosen laws and allow more of the existing building stock to be more quickly enlarged and subdivided into smaller units).

I wonder if rent control could be aligned to more of schedule- perhaps buildings 25+year old from the current date should automatically fall under rent control protections. Unfortunately this won't fix any of our issues now, but it may provide future control of rents.

Interesting note from Globe article above on rent controls:

The exemption for homes built after 1991 was originally part of a piece of legislation with roots in the Residential Premises Rent Review Act of 1975, which sanctified rental guidelines and restricted rental increases and evictions. The 1975 law changed over the course of its lifetime and eventually included a rotating five-year adjustment period that gave newly built homes time to find their appropriate market value; after five years, the home would be placed into rental regulation. The rotating exemption was last updated in 1991. Five years later, after Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservative Party came to power, the law was reworked to say that homes built or occupied after Nov. 1, 1991, were not included under rental regulation.

“This is in an unlegislated area that puts all the power in the hands of the landlord,” said Alexis Fitzjohn, another resident at the Carnaby, who is moving at the end of the month after being notified that the owner of her unit is returning. “I know landlords complain that the rental increase guideline isn’t high enough, but then revisit it. Don’t just not legislate it and then allow the landlord to raise the rent $600. I mean, how is that right either?”

 

[freshcutgrass]

Rent control only applies to buildings occupied before 1991.

Which is why rental unit stock after 1991 is basically individually owned condo units controlled by market rates (with low vacancy rates because there is no new purpose-built rental housing). This is not doing the condo corps any good nor those who need affordable housing.

The government is in the business of housing those who require subsidized housing...not the private sector. If each just does their job, things will improve. But the government would like the private sector to do their jobs for them.

The caveat...taxes have to be raised to pay for subsidizing housing for those who need it. And lowering taxes seem to be the game now. Wynne knows this....she was the Housing Minister before getting the top seat for crying out loud.

I have a feeling that the only answer is to have an NDP party running things at Queen's Park for a while if we ever want to get back on track with spending what needs to get spent to get public interests back on track. And that's going to be a hard sell on an electorate that is addicted to populace ideals.

 

[Freedom]

Lowering taxes is the game now? What taxes have been lowered over the past decade? I've never heard anybody make that argument before, particularly in Ontario.

Spending is at an all-time high. Ontario is running deficits, as are the feds. Where is all of this money going to come from?

 

[freshcutgrass]

Lowering taxes is the game now? What taxes have been lowered over the past decade? I've never heard anybody make that argument before, particularly in Ontario.

Spending is at an all-time high. Ontario is running deficits, as are the feds. Where is all of this money going to come from?

I didn't say they were doing it...I said they are presenting the illusion of it to appease the populace vote that still wants to believe it. The Ford Nation types. That's why we have a so-called left wing Premier killing a municipal road toll.

The money can come from where it exists in the most abundance.

 

[Freedom]

Cancelling one tax increase is not "lowering taxes".

The top marginal income tax rate in Ontario is already over 50%. How high would you like to see it? At what point do you think the Laffer curve comes into play (if it hasn't already)?

 

[Northern Light]

Cancelling one tax increase is not "lowering taxes".

The top marginal income tax rate in Ontario is already over 50%. How high would you like to see it? At what point do you think the Laffer curve comes into play (if it hasn't already)?

I'm not going to advocate here for an increase or decrease in any particular tax..........BUT

There are more taxes than personal income taxes.

Sales Tax in Ontario is 8% prov (13 overall) that is roughly 2 points lower than Quebec, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI, and NB and. Manitoba is the same (8).

Said sales tax is also below the consolidated norm, post HST which was 15, so sales tax is at a recent low.

***

Gas Tax (excluding the new Carbon Tax) has not been increased in more than a decade. Adjusted for inflation it would be about 5c per litre higher.

But, due to increasing fuel efficiency, the tax is actually bringing in less per fill up than it did 10 years ago.

***

Property Tax has mostly increased in line with inflation for single-family homes in Toronto over the last 2 decades, but has fallen (adjusted for inflation) on commercial properties.

***

Corporate Income Tax is WAY down.

Federally 28% a decade and a 1/2 ago. Today 15%

Ontario 14% a decade and a 1/2 ago, Today 11.5%

An overall reduction from 42% to 26.5%

***

While personal income tax, has also declined, at both provincial and federal levels.

Entry level tax bracket federally has gone from 17% to 15%

Provincially it has gone from 8% to 5%

Middle income rates have also dropped Federally from 24% a couple of decades back to 20.5% today.

While marginal rates have climbed just a tad; when adjusted for the impact of lower rates in lower income brackets (which apply to the bulk of earned income)
fully 99% of income taxpayers are paying less tax as a portion of income than they were 20 years ago.

That's before accounting for TFSAs, RDSPS, RESPS, and more generous RRSP limits; as well as lower capital gains taxes.

***

In fairness, more municipal services have shifted to user pay, or full cost recovery, and pension deductions are higher than they were 30 years ago.

Still, overall, the tax burden is not rising materially by any metric of which I'm aware.

What it is doing is shifting somewhat away from business and on to the individual; as well as hitting those whose only income is from employment somewhat harder.

 

[Freedom]

Sales Tax in Ontario is 8% prov (13 overall) that is roughly 2 points lower than Quebec, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI, and NB and. Manitoba is the same (8).

Said sales tax is also below the consolidated norm, post HST which was 15, so sales tax is at a recent low.

The Feds lowered sales tax, not Ontario. But yes, that is one tax that has gone down in Ontario over the past decade. However, the big caveat is that Ontario removed many items from being HST-exempt, like power for example. Hence, it's arguable if the tax burden from sales tax is actually down in Ontario and would depend on an individual's purchasing habits.

Gas Tax (excluding the new Carbon Tax) has not been increased in more than a decade. Adjusted for inflation it would be about 5c per litre higher.

True, with the exception of jet fuel which more than doubled over the past few years. The carbon tax speaks for itself and will raise this cost significantly, more than outweighing the 5 cents per litre you quoted.

While marginal rates have climbed just a tad; when adjusted for the impact of lower rates in lower income brackets (which apply to the bulk of earned income)
fully 99% of income taxpayers are paying less tax as a portion of income than they were 20 years ago.

Source? This is a very complex calculation so I would be interested in seeing it.

---

Anyway, you concluded that the tax burden hasn't risen significantly. I would argue that, but my point was that the statement from freshcutgrass that "lowering taxes seems to be the game now" is not the case in Ontario. You seem to agree.

 

[jje1000]

Polls show some improvement but Wynne's ratings still remain low. They really need to fix hydro in a fundamental way if any of they want to strengthen their position going into the election- everything else is chaff.

Premier Wynne's popularity 'abysmal': Poll

TORONTO - Premier Kathleen Wynne’s approval rating has increased four percentage points and still comes in at under 20%.


Two-thirds of Ontarians either somewhat or strongly disapprove of her job performance as premier, while only 18% think she’s doing a good job, according to a new poll.

“I would say that she has improved from atrocious to abysmal,” Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi said Thursday of the 4% bump. “That’s still a long, long way from where she needs to be to have any chance of a comeback.”

A Mainstreet Research poll found that among decided or leaning voters, 39% back the Progressive Conservatives, 29% support the Liberals, 27% give the nod to the NDP and 4% favour the Greens.

A strong 62% of those polled like how NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is handling her duties.

Although Horwath’s high-popularity numbers haven’t translated to great box-office success in the past, they do suggest momentum as the election approaches in 2018, Maggi said.

When it comes to PC Leader Patrick Brown, whose party is currently at the top of the polls, his approval numbers have dipped to 47%.

“He’s down slightly; this is just outside the margin of error in terms of decrease,” Maggi said. “He’s still close to a majority approval. I don’t see that being much of a concern if I’m Patrick Brown.”

The same poll asked voters if Wynne had taken any action to lower their hydro bills – a top concern for Ontarians.


Even though the Ontario Liberals under Wynne dropped the 8% provincial portion of the HST off hydro bills as of Jan. 1, not many people seemed to have noticed.


More than half of Ontarians – 55% - say the government has taken no action over the past year to reduce electricity prices, the poll found.

That finding may explain why Wynne and her party are struggling, behind in almost ever part of the province except the cities of Toronto and Ottawa.

Even the 905, which came out the winner when Wynne blocked Toronto Mayor John Tory from slapping polls on the two main highways into the city, favours the PCs.


“I think at this point it’s not about the message, it’s the messenger,” Maggi said. “I really do believe that a lot of the positive announcements that this Premier has made in the last year - whether it’s about the hydro rebate, free tuition for low income families, even small things like beer in grocery stores that is widely popular – I think it’s all being drowned out by the hydro rates and hydro privatization and the way the government has really lost control of that whole process.”

Mainstreet Research also asked Ontarians about the impact of a Donald Trump presidency on the auto sector, a key provincial industry, and most said it would harm it.

The pollster surveyed 2,524 Ontarians on Feb. 12 through landlines and cell lines, and the results are considered accurate within 1.95 percentage points.

http://www.cp24.com/news/wynne-s-approval-ratings-remain-low-poll-1.3289956