2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Jasmine18]

If anyone is safe in this election, it’s downtown Liberal Toronto MPP’s. NDP voters will turn out in droves for the Liberals like they did when Hudak was a threat.

The NDP is going to be decimated this election.

While I won’t write off Doug Ford winning the election, Wynne is in a better position tonight. Had it been Elliott, Wynne would have almost certainly lost. With Ford, she now has a real contrast and a boogeyman to run against.

It’s hard to know until the campaign progresses but if Ford runs his campaign like the PCs ran this leadership race, I think Wynne will be re-elected. At the very worst, Ford will win the election but no way can he win a majority. It’ll be an embarrassing year for the PCs, the Liberals will box him in opposition and choose a new leader before triggering a new election.

But if I had to place a bet now, I’d say that this election looks a lot like the last one. An anybody but Ford movement from the left, centre and even right, propels the Liberals to another accidental majority.

I think you need to go outside of Downtown, Wynne is so deeply unpopular its crazy and frankly as I have shown her unpopularity is far far far greater than in 2014, so this is not like 2014 at all...This is a much bigger hill To climb.

I think the desire to get rid of the liberals will be stronger then stop the Doug Ford movement outside of Downtown Toronto.

The only places that such a feeling will be great will be in already safe Liberal ridings...

I think you guys forget that Etobicoke and Scarborough went mostly for Ford?

You think they will just go all remain solid Liberal now?


I think this election will see a much higher turnout and Wynne cant count on a 50% turnout to propel her to false majorities anymore.

 

[animatronic]

If anyone is safe in this election, it’s downtown Liberal Toronto MPP’s. NDP voters will turn out in droves for the Liberals like they did when Hudak was a threat.

The NDP is going to be decimated this election.

While I won’t write off Doug Ford winning the election, Wynne is in a better position tonight. Had it been Elliott, Wynne would have almost certainly lost. With Ford, she now has a real contrast and a boogeyman to run against.

It’s hard to know until the campaign progresses but if Ford runs his campaign like the PCs ran this leadership race, I think Wynne will be re-elected. At the very worst, Ford will win the election but no way can he win a majority. It’ll be an embarrassing year for the PCs, the Liberals will box him in opposition and choose a new leader before triggering a new election.

But if I had to place a bet now, I’d say that this election looks a lot like the last one. An anybody but Ford movement from the left, centre and even right, propels the Liberals to another accidental majority.

This is a Clintonesque misreading of the situation. Doug Ford is the front runner for next Premier. He will use a simplistic populist message to capture the crazies and soft conservatives.

If the Liberals run this as a conventional campaign they will be steamrolled. They need to start this morning with destroying Ford’s reputation and sowing discord in the con party. Ford is hopelessley corrupt, ethically compromised and owned by radical socons. That’s what will win.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This is a Clintonesque misreading of the situation. Doug Ford is the front runner for next Premier. He will use a simplistic populist message to capture the crazies and soft conservatives.

If the Liberals run this as a conventional campaign they will be steamrolled. They need to start this morning with destroying Ford’s reputation and sowing discord in the con party. Ford is hopelessley corrupt, ethically compromised and owned by radical socons. That’s what will win.

The Liberals will campaign on that Ford is equal to Trump, likely calling out pieces like this
http://www.680news.com/video/2016/1...ys-his-support-of-donald-trump-is-unwavering/

But what the Liberals will ignore is that lots of people like Trump, and if only covertly, like his views. Just wait for Wynne’s basket of deplorable moment.

 

[Admiral Beez]

In some ways I think Elliot would have been too easy an out for centralists and leftists. Sure, you want Liberal-like policies but you don’t want the Liberals. So, instead you hoped to get Liberal PCs. Well, IMO, that’s dishonest, since the PCs haven’t been centralists since Bill Davis, so expecting them to be Liberals was a fantasy.

Instead what we’ve got now is a true battle of ideology, we know what the sides stand for, and there’s no real mixing that of the Liberals and the PCs. The Liberals and Wynne believe government knows best, and that expanding the role of government into everyone’s lives is a good thing. This election will test that premise.

It will be interesting to see how the NDP positions itself. Will they return to their leftist roots, or try to position themselves as the centralist alternative that the disenchanted Liberal voters were hoping the PCs would become.

 

[Jasmine18]

My point is underestimate Ford at your own peril.

We thought his Brother could not be Mayor and he won almost half the vote.

His brother imo did better than expected consdering the mess of the ford by winning around 34% of the vote in a high turnout election.

He has beaten the establishment figures and won the Ontario PC nomination.

I am not saying his victory is certain but dimiss him and I think you will find him as Premier on June 7th.

 

[Adjei]

This is a Clintonesque misreading of the situation. Doug Ford is the front runner for next Premier. He will use a simplistic populist message to capture the crazies and soft conservatives.

If the Liberals run this as a conventional campaign they will be steamrolled. They need to start this morning with destroying Ford’s reputation and sowing discord in the con party. Ford is hopelessley corrupt, ethically compromised and owned by radical socons. That’s what will win.

They need to play dirty because the other side will.

 

[BurlOak]

If anyone is safe in this election, it’s downtown Liberal Toronto MPP’s. NDP voters will turn out in droves for the Liberals like they did when Hudak was a threat.

The NDP is going to be decimated this election.

While I won’t write off Doug Ford winning the election, Wynne is in a better position tonight. Had it been Elliott, Wynne would have almost certainly lost. With Ford, she now has a real contrast and a boogeyman to run against.

It’s hard to know until the campaign progresses but if Ford runs his campaign like the PCs ran this leadership race, I think Wynne will be re-elected. At the very worst, Ford will win the election but no way can he win a majority. It’ll be an embarrassing year for the PCs, the Liberals will box him in opposition and choose a new leader before triggering a new election.

But if I had to place a bet now, I’d say that this election looks a lot like the last one. An anybody but Ford movement from the left, centre and even right, propels the Liberals to another accidental majority.

Comments on yesterdays leadership:
Liberal

“With the selection of Doug Ford, Ontario Conservatives have chosen corporate interests over workers, religious extremism over the rights of women, and cuts at the expense of our healthcare and education,” the statement said.

http://canoe.com/news/local-news/do...ader/wcm/e4582db4-16ab-4585-8abd-3eba6e05324c


NDP

Congratulations, @fordnation, and to all the candidates and teams that worked hard on the #pcpo leadership race.

https://twitter.com/AndreaHorwath/status/972689437535686656

Winning candidates always thank and praise those who ran against them - Ford did.

Other party leaders always congratulate other party newly elected leaders - Horwath did.

I honestly don't think there is anyone* who will support the Liberals this time around - there is only so long that you can prop up a dead and corrupt party.

* - Liberals will likely retain some support by their core group - the ignorant, apathetic, and those who benefit from their corruption.

 

[PinkLucy]

My fear is that if Ford gets elected, we will soon hear what I hear from American Republicans: "we didn't think he would really do what he said he would", "we thought it was an act, that he really wasn't like that", "I'm sorry I voted for him". With Ford, you do get what you see and worse. He is that rude, that arrogant, that mean-spirited, that disdainful of social programs, etc. etc. Think really carefully before giving him a vote.

 

[steveintoronto]

I honestly don't think there is anyone* who will support the Liberals this time around - there is only so long that you can prop up a dead and corrupt party.

lol...you miss an important caveat: Voters will willow away from Wynne on one proviso: That the alternative is better.

Fat luck on that one, literally.

 

[Admiral Beez]

lol...you miss an important caveat: Voters will willow away from Wynne on one proviso: That the alternative is better

Horvath is considered a better alternative by some past liberal voters. Ford will be considered a better alternative by many others.

Wynne is considered the least worst choice by others. Is that enough for Wynne to win?

 

[steveintoronto]

Ford is considered better by many.

Remains to be seen. This was a party leadership election, not a provincial one.

If Ford wins, then that's what Ontarians deserve. People with emotional issues often 'self-harm'.

Self-harm (SH), also known as self-injury, is defined as the intentional, direct injuring of body tissue, done without suicidal intentions.[1][2][3] Other terms such as self-mutilation, have been used for any self-harming behavior regardless of suicidal intent.[2][4] The most common form of self-harm is using a sharp object to cut one's skin, but also includes behaviour such as burning, scratching, banging or hitting body parts. While older definitions have included behavior as interfering with wound healing, excessive skin picking (dermatillomania), hair-pulling (trichotillomania) and the ingestion of toxic substances or objects as self-harm, [2][5][6] in current terminology those are differentiated from the term self-harm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-harm

That's about right. The choice is either sandpaper underwear with Wynne, or slashing yourself with a very dull blade....

Edit to Add: Or the obscurity of Horwath. Wynne wins by default, not design.

 

[Northern Light]

I honestly don't think there is anyone* who will support the Liberals this time around - there is only so long that you can prop up a dead and corrupt party.

* - Liberals will likely retain some support by their core group - the ignorant, apathetic, and those who benefit from their corruption.

Does it ever occur to you that you diminish yourself and your beliefs every time you post nonsense like this?

You would like people to consider voting Conservative, who have not voted that way in recent times.

You then proceed to wholesale trash those people you would need to win over and their beliefs.

I don't know if you have it in you to be less lopsided, extreme, hyperbolic and downright offensive, but I would strongly encourage you to try.

I am not a partisan Liberal (or a partisan of any other party).

I'm not an ideologue.

I'm not naive about corruption or corrosive influences in politics.

There's plenty I find disagreeable about the choices made by the current provincial government, particularly in its earlier years.

So you should be able to make a convincing case to me about where I might park my vote in the next election.

But I can't bring myself to take anything you say seriously when its so filled with hate and invective. I'm shocked I haven't heard yet how the Liberals are the Axis of Evil; or the 'evil-doers' your rhetoric is but one step shy of that.

Why not actually critique policy?

Why not actually point out where your preferred party could do better?

 

[BurlOak]

Does it ever occur to you that you diminish yourself and your beliefs every time you post nonsense like this?

You would like people to consider voting Conservative, who have not voted that way in recent times.

You then proceed to wholesale trash those people you would need to win over and their beliefs.

I don't know if you have it in you to be less lopsided, extreme, hyperbolic and downright offensive, but I would strongly encourage you to try.

I am not a partisan Liberal (or a partisan of any other party).

I'm not an ideologue.

I'm not naive about corruption or corrosive influences in politics.

There's plenty I find disagreeable about the choices made by the current provincial government, particularly in its earlier years.

So you should be able to make a convincing case to me about where I might park my vote in the next election.

But I can't bring myself to take anything you say seriously when its so filled with hate and invective. I'm shocked I haven't heard yet how the Liberals are the Axis of Evil; or the 'evil-doers' your rhetoric is but one step shy of that.

Why not actually critique policy?

Why not actually point out where your preferred party could do better?

Liberals and NDP basically have the same policies, but the Liberals have 15 years of mismanagement and corruption. I can understand someone voting NDP. I just can't wrap my mind around why anyone would vote Liberal.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I just can't wrap my mind around why anyone would vote Liberal.

I consider myself right of centre of many issues, but I voted Liberal last time because I couldn’t support the PCs terminating 100,000 civil servants when my family and friends are counted among them. I voted Liberal the time before that because I couldn’t support the PCs funding potentially Islamist madrassas and other fundamentalist or mainstream religious schools (one’s too many, but no one will touch the RC system). I voted NDP before that because Ernie Eves was useless and I liked Howard Hampton. The last time I voted PC was for Mike Harris in 1999 and 1995.

So, I’m that “anyone” who would vote Liberal, especially if a vote for the NDP is considered unsless. If I think DoFo is looking to revisit religious schools or widespread civil service cuts, then I’ll look leftward again. However, if DoFo promises to undo the carbon taxes, reduce the massive electricity costs that make our industries uncompetitive, promises to undo wind power scam/insider contracts I’ll consider PC. If electoral reform is on the table, getting rid of FPTP, I’m in.

 

[christiesplits]

A few thoughts from my armchair:

Ford's win: Pollsters, yet again, missed the ball. Everyone should have seen this coming. As Martin Regg Cohn mentioned in The Star, Ford's win was a backlash against the PC party establishment, solidified under Brown and passed to torch bearers Mulroney and Elliot. Ford has now made relatively safe Liberal pockets in Peel and the Toronto inner burbs (Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke), very competitive.

Wynne's next move: Study everything about Hillary Clinton's campaign, and do the complete opposite. Don't lose sight of your base, don't hold your nose to your opponent's supporters, and forget digging any dirt on your opponent. The Fords, like Trump, are Teflon and will deflect even the harshest allegations or dug up news clips.

Horwath's next move: Study the Bernie and Corbyn playbook: Move further to the left, stick to key populist messaging e.g. "the 99%," and be angry as hell.