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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

I wouldn't underestimate Ford either. Ford will vaguely promise everything to everyone, and people will simply go for it for the sake of change.

That's how Rob Ford won - a 'right wing' populist platform where he could accomplish everything but cutting waste, all communicated via simple slogans.
 
PC is a party that simply wants a white man in a suit telling them they will cut taxes by finding efficiencies.

If that person is racist, sexist, homophobic, is a idiot...who cares, they promised tax cuts.
 
PC membership ranked ballot voting doesn't translate well to general election FPTP voting. It's down to how people think of Ford in relation to Hudak. I reckon to antipathy towards the Liberals is overstated in this context. Wasn't there mass disaffection with the Liberals the last time? Look how that turned out in the context of a Hudak PC leadership situation. I wasn't a fan of Hudak but if I had to choose between him and Ford......I wouldn't think twice. Hudak may have some crazy ideas and be a bit strange, but Ford is just a malignant burden in the public sphere.
 
MTown said:
PC membership ranked ballot voting doesn't translate well to general election FPTP voting. It's down to how people think of Ford in relation to Hudak. I reckon to antipathy towards the Liberals is overstated in this context. Wasn't there mass disaffection with the Liberals the last time? Look how that turned out in the context of a Hudak PC leadership situation. I wasn't a fan of Hudak but if I had to choose between him and Ford......I wouldn't think twice. Hudak may have some crazy ideas and be a bit strange, but Ford is just a malignant burden in the public sphere.
Click to expand...

Wynne popularity before the 2014 election was far far higher
1280px-ON_provincial_polling_since_the_2011_election_%28alt%29.png
...
 
That shows voting intention. What is it now? The last poll I saw was just around when Patrick Brown was resigning and it showed 49% PC support vs 24% Liberal support. With Ford does that hold?
For the sake of my opinion of my fellow citizens, I hope not.
 
MTown said:
That shows voting intention. What is it now?
Click to expand...


People keep saying Tories had 2014 locked but polls were close, this time they are not.



If The Tories keep a high lead after news of Ford gets out, then I think Liberals should panic.


but I am in the suburbs, Liberals are deeply unpopular here.
900px-ON_42nd_provincial_election_polling.png
 
Well, I'm off my dinner. Shame. I bought some lamb. Was going to have a lamb and noodle stir fry. Now I just want a PR electoral system instead. I'll save the lamb for when my soul stops hurting.
 
Jasmine18 said:
Only way to get electoral reform is a referendum.Trudeau just said Canadians are too stupid to vote on it.
Click to expand...
Trudeau's too stupid (sorry, too devious) to keep a promise so I'm not sure his opinion counts, especially on this particular subject. Nor does he have anything to do with provincial electoral systems. Well, I'm sure he'd be sad to see his colleagues in the provincial party lose their ability to win false majorities and he'd have something to say about that, but that's about it.
 
Jasmine18 said:
Wynne popularity before the 2014 election was far far higher
1280px-ON_provincial_polling_since_the_2011_election_%28alt%29.png
...
Click to expand...
This chart explain a lot.

Wynne took over in February 2013 with Liberal popularity at 30%. Instead of bringing down the government when it first could, Horvath delayed. She was basically in a first place tie. If she would have assumed that Hudak was awkward and a poor campaigner, she could have easily vaulted to the Primiers seat. Instead, she let Wynne get her legs. Horvath dropped about 10%, and Wynne got her majority.

I think Horvath will be haunted by this decision and will not be considered a serious contender because of it.
 
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