2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[W. K. Lis]

Amazing results for Ward 13 – Toronto Centre.

Kristyn Wong-Tam 15,706 50.26%
George Smitherman 4,734 15.15%

Way back in 2010, when George Smitherman ran against Rob Ford for mayor, the results were:

Rob Ford 383,501 47.114%
George Smitherman 289,832 35.607%
Joe Pantalone 95,482 11.730%
Rocco Rossi 5,012 0.616%

From 35% down to 15%, what a downfall for Smitherman.

 

[DSC]

Amazing results for Ward 13 – Toronto Centre.

Kristyn Wong-Tam 15,706 50.26%
George Smitherman 4,734 15.15%

Way back in 2010, when George Smitherman ran against Rob Ford for mayor, the results were:

Rob Ford 383,501 47.114%
George Smitherman 289,832 35.607%
Joe Pantalone 95,482 11.730%
Rocco Rossi 5,012 0.616%

From 35% down to 15%, what a downfall for Smitherman.

You are REALLY comparing apples with oranges here. The race was different, the opponent was different and it's 8 years later. Smitherman lost in 2018 because he was fighting a pretty popular/successful incumbent. He has also not been very visible in the Ward and still carries the mark of his problems in the McGuinty government.

 

[ShonTron]

You are REALLY comparing apples with oranges here. The race was different, the opponent was different and it's 8 years later. Smitherman lost in 2018 because he was fighting a pretty popular/successful incumbent. He has also not been very visible in the Ward and still carries the mark of his problems in the McGuinty government.

Yep. Back in 2010, I was living in Ward 9 (Downsview) and voted for Smitherman only because it was the only way I could help keep out Rob Ford.

Now I live in Ward 27/Ward 13, and why would I not vote for Wong-Tam?

 

[Jonny5]

From 35% down to 15%, what a downfall for Smitherman.

I was thinking of voting for him, but that ended the moment he called my phone's VoIP line app number. It's a Fongo app number on the 437 area code which I do not use for outgoing calls outside of immediate family. I am a member of the OLP, and I had provided this number to them as a place to direct the robocalls for the last election. So how did Smitherman get it? I have had zero incoming calls for four years on that line other than the OLP robocalls for the last election. Note: these incoming calls from the Smitherman campaign were not robocalls; they were live people calling me. He has not been an MP for eight years, which was after the time I was assigned this number. I cannot escape the conclusion that someone in the OLP leaked my personal data to his campaign.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

This is a good reference for the old 47 wards. https://seanmarshall.ca/2018/07/06/mapping-the-2018-candidates-for-toronto-city-council/
There are a few places where it would be difficult to call a favorite but I'm going to make some assumptions and break down the projected council and show how the 25 ward council is better for Tory. I am also going to assume every incumbent gets elected there are a few questionable races for sure. It is also unclear if David shiner would have ran without the bill 5 interference there is some speculation he would have ran in ward 30. I am just going to go by who actuality signed up.

1. Vincent Crisanti
2. Michael Ford
3. Stephen Holyday
4. John Campbell
5.Pamela Gough (potentiality someone else would win)
6. Mark Grimes
7. Giorgio Mammolitti
8. Anthony Perruzza
9. Maria Augimeri
10. James Pasternak
11. Frances Nunziata
12. Frank Di Giorgio
13. Mike Colle
14. Christin Carmichael Greb
15. Joe Mihevc
16. Ana Bailao
17. Sarah Doucette
18. Gord Perks
19. Mike Layton
20. Ausma Malik(very decent chance someone else wins here, but will be left leaning)
21. Jennifer Hollet(not guaranteed but will be left leaning councilor)
22. Kristyn Wong-Tam
23. George Smitherman( very questionable prediction)
24. Joe Cressy
25. Chris Moise(not guaranteed but will be left leaning)
26. Josh Matlow
27. Jaye Robinson
28. (no clue who would win)
29. Lily Cheng(very good chance someone else wins)
30. Dan Fox( rest of candidates are lackluster)
31. Shelley Carroll
32. Denzil Minnan-Wong
33. Jon Burnside
34. Mary Fragedakis
35. Diane Dyson(very good chance it could be someone else but will be left leaning)
36. Paula Fletcher
37. Brad Bradford
38. Gary Crawford
39. Michelle Holland-Berrardinetti
40. Michael Thompson
41. Glenn De Baeremaker
42. Norm Kelly
43. Jim Karygiannis
44. Cynthia Lai
45. Neethan Shan
46. Paul Ainslie
47. Jennifer McKelvie

You need 24 votes or 23(plus the mayor) to win at council so look at the list or potential candidates:

Mayor supporters/right wing councilors:
Crisanti, Ford, Holyday, Campbell, Grimes, Mammolitti, Pasternak, Nunziata, Di Giorgio, Carmichael Greb, Robinson, Minnan-Wong, Burnside, Bradford, Crawford, Holland-Berrardinetti, Thompson, De Baeremaker, Kelly, Karygiannis, Lai, McKelvie.
Total: 22

Potential swing votes
Gough, Perruzza, Colle, Bailao, Smitherman, ward 28 winner, Cheng, Ainslie
Total: 8

opposition
Augimeri, Mihevc Doucette, Perks, Layton, Malik, Hollet, Wong-Tam, Cressy, Moise, Matlow, Fox, Carroll, Fragedakis, Dyson, Fletcher, Shan.
Total: 17

Honestly I was saying that the 47 wards would have been a disaster for Tory but it SEEMS like they would be pretty even in reality. The only thing is he would have to "bribe" more people to get votes. Now he can give appointments to like 15 councilors and guarantee every vote wins basically.
My personal opinion is that it is a positive that some of the deadweight councilors on both the Left and Right were removed. So while the balance of power was the same I think council will function better.

 

[11th]

Two observations.
1. Many council races results in a strong majority rather than a weak plurality. Hats off to Kristin Wong-Tam who won a majority against like two dozen (ack!$#@!) competitors. While lifer Frances Nunziata hung on with 32.06% and newbie Cynthia Lai ‘won’ with 27%.
2. Turnout, at best, seems to be about a third. Ugh.

Honourable mention to John Filion, won with 31.06%.
Ward 17 and 18 incumbents benefitted from the vote-split and the current FPTP system.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Two observations.
1. Many council races results in a strong majority rather than a weak plurality. Hats off to Kristin Wong-Tam who won a majority against like two dozen (ack!$#@!) competitors. While lifer Frances Nunziata hung on with 32.06% and newbie Cynthia Lai ‘won’ with 27%.

Wait, you just mentioned "strong majority" and followed it up with the example of Wong-Tam whose majority was 50.something%. As in, barely a majority, let alone a strong one.

Perks had a decent majority with 60-something percent.

But the only strong majority is Bailao's 80%. That's a strong majority.

Some of these councillors are just another example of why FPTP is a joke.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Bailao is not visible minority. In today's conjuncture she's considered white. Let's not bend over backwards to make excuses for a fake progressive/Tory lapdog.

"Fake progressive" as in regressive left?

Like someone who dismisses a person's criticism of a religion with an irrelevant and untrue label used in a derisive way yet claims to be progressive?

I take it you're knowledgeable on the topic of fake progressives.

Also, who's making excuses for her? What sort of excuses? Where did you get this?
We get it, Portuguese people are white....I thought that was obvious. Making a mistake about that fact doesn't warrant your misguided attempt at making enemies out of people who don't fit in with your very strict (like, authoritarian-level strict, I've noticed) worldview.

You really are deranged in your derision of people who don't fit your ideological narrative.
Settle down.


For the record, I lived in Davenport from 2012-2015 and made a personal enemy out of Bailao for the way she was trying to coerce a local restaurateur (an old lady I became friends with) into doing the bidding of another local business. That and her lame excuses for not going with a very popular and sensible (like, grid-connecting the urban fabric sensible) proposal for a local development's community benefit contributions.
I dislike Bailao as much as anyone, but I have reasons that go beyond a level of stupid labelling ("fake progressive") and ideological brain constraint.

 

[SunriseChampion]

She's proof that shallow politics can win regardless of the agenda underneath.

So is Perks, in my experience.

"Hi, I'm the 'progressive' candidate in this ward. We need to get 'them' to pay more so we can build more affordable housing."

As said to my face at my door during the campaign.

Shit, maybe this shallow politics is a west end thing, eh?

He also got re-elected so it looks like we can add him to the list of councillors playing people for stupid (correctly, one could argue).

 

[animatronic]

So, for those keeping track on the incumbency poll, the winning number is 4 new faces on council:

- Mike Colle* in Ward 6 (*with a bullet - replaced his son, and he was also a former councillor)
- Brad Bradford in Ward 19 (open seat)
- Cynthia Lai in Ward 23 (open seat)
- Jennifer McKelvie in Ward 25 (defeated Shan)

Shelley Carroll won in Ward 17, but that doesn’t count because she had the seat before resigning to run provincially.

In all a bit disappointing that in the only two incumbent-contested seats, one was won by a relative of the incumbent and the other defeated a by-election winner.

Congrats to @DSC, @Videodrome and @Thorns_Embrace for getting it right!

 

[adma]

My apologies on the Bailao point I mistakenly assumed she was from South America like the other councilor in the area Cesar Palacio.

I don't think of Palacio as visible minority, either.

 

[adma]

Honourable mention to John Filion, won with 31.06%.
Ward 17 and 18 incumbents benefitted from the vote-split and the current FPTP system.

I was sort of wondering about Filion. He was slow off the mark with signs, and seemed a bit sleepwalk/autopilot in his un-retirement (and forfeited a Star endorsement in the process). It was just his luck that he had way too many opponents of varying degrees of viability splitting the opposition...

 

[adma]

Perks had a decent majority with 60-something percent.

But the only strong majority is Bailao's 80%. That's a strong majority.

Actually, Perks won with 44.55%. (He had some not-just-nominal opposition: Ginsberg, Dolma, etc)

The other "60-somethings" were Layton, Thompson, and Ainslie.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Actually, Perks won with 44.55%. (He had some not-just-nominal opposition: Ginsberg, Dolma, etc)

The other "60-somethings" were Layton, Thompson, and Ainslie.

Thanks for that clarification. I don't know what I was looking at. Honestly thought I was better at maths than to be confused by some percentages. Guess not.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I don't think of Palacio as visible minority, either.

That's because being from South America does not necessarily mean one isn't white.

Hey, @Thorns_Embrace ....what's going on?

I mean, my grams was a Turkish gyppo, does that mean I'm not white? Rhetorical question....Turks are white too....though, gyppos not so much.