News   Oct 29, 2020
 54     0 
News   Oct 28, 2020
 891     2 
News   Oct 28, 2020
 1.5K     1 

2014 Ontario Provincial Election

BurlOak

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Dec 7, 2011
Messages
6,063
Reaction score
1,642
Except that ALL the provincial parties wanted to cancel the gas plants.
There are 3 main reasons the Liberals are much worse on the Gas Plant file.

  1. They were the ones in power when the locations were chosen, so they had the ability to cancel them when cancellation costs would been less (or non-existent).
  2. The biggest financial costs from the Gas Plants were from the Oakville plant (about $700M), which was cancelled about a year before the election. The Mississauga one, which was cancelled during the election, was well under half the cost of the Oakville one ($300M). And the Auditor found that the Liberals paid significant penalties that were not warrented just to get it to go away quietly. (The whole thing could have died for little or no penalty if and when Oakville would not grant the zoning changes). The Liberals paid these huge sums because they wanted to be seen to be cancelling the unpopular plant. If they just wanted the plants cancelled, they would have just waited for the process to play out and Oakville would not have given the zoning changes.
  3. The Liberals deleted the public records around the cancellation.
 

denfromoakvillemilton

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 30, 2008
Messages
6,733
Reaction score
752
Location
Former City of York, Ontario, Canada
The Gas Plants crossed the line into corruption for me when they embarked on a systematic deleting of emails....you don't do that if you believe it is just misjudgement and the facts will show that you did nothing that the other two parties would have done.
There are 3 main reasons the Liberals are much worse on the Gas Plant file.

  1. They were the ones in power when the locations were chosen, so they had the ability to cancel them when cancellation costs would been less (or non-existent).
  2. The biggest financial costs from the Gas Plants were from the Oakville plant (about $700M), which was cancelled about a year before the election. The Mississauga one, which was cancelled during the election, was well under half the cost of the Oakville one ($300M). And the Auditor found that the Liberals paid significant penalties that were not warrented just to get it to go away quietly. (The whole thing could have died for little or no penalty if and when Oakville would not grant the zoning changes). The Liberals paid these huge sums because they wanted to be seen to be cancelling the unpopular plant. If they just wanted the plants cancelled, they would have just waited for the process to play out and Oakville would not have given the zoning changes.
  3. The Liberals deleted the public records around the cancellation.
If you guys feel this way then vote them out. Wynne was a minister of a different profile, she does not deserve the punish she is about to get. Andrea Horvath, if she wins is going to find out the hard way leading is harder then talking.
 

innsertnamehere

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
14,693
Reaction score
9,604
Just a question, but why do the municipal politics threads go in the "Toronto issues" section but this go here?

also, sure the libs chose the plant locations initially but most of the $1.1 billion figure is actually from the inreased operating costs of having the plants further away, their initial choice was to save money and lower hydro rates. had they chosen the "right" spot in the first place (and in reality their original spot was the right one, there was no way to predict the huge political backlash that would occur), $500 million of that $1.1 billion figure would have been "wasted" anyway.

I'll be voting Liberal, but I live in a very strong PC riding. My MPP is retiring which may change things up a bit, but my riding also reelected Bev Oda happily with a large majority in 2011.
 
Last edited:

Southcore

Active Member
Member Bio
Joined
Jun 5, 2011
Messages
586
Reaction score
41
Location
Southcore
Just a question, but why do the municipal politics threads go in the "Toronto issues" section but this go here?
Yeah this thread should be in the Toronto Issues forum, there is so much at stake for Toronto with respect to transit (to the point where it doesn't really matter who the next mayor is) that is should be there.

I'll vote would like to Liberal but Marchese has my riding locked up anyway. Here's hoping your 905 riding innsert (as well as others) don't go blue this time around.
 

waterloowarrior

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 25, 2007
Messages
1,766
Reaction score
45
Location
Ottawa
We are unfortunately still using the old riding boundaries, so 905 ridings are 2-3 times larger than Northern Ontario ridings and downtown Toronto is also underrepresented.

Hopefully by the next election Ontario will harmonize with the federal ridings (and get rid of that PC-era law that gave Northern Ontario even more skewed representation)
 

innsertnamehere

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
14,693
Reaction score
9,604
I actually live in the riding of Durham, last time we had a non conservative representative on any level was the early 1990's. Interestingly a lot of my town councillors are pro transit taxes but our populance just loves to vote blue no matter the candidate. they could stick a slice of cheese for the candidate and it would win. I'll vote against it, but for my riding it will likely look like this:

PC: 55%, NDP 20%, Liberal 15%, Green 7%, other 3%.


The battle will be in the outer 905 and the smaller southern Ontario cities. Wynne will be looking to pick up London, Windsor, Niagara region seats from the NDP and maybe a few from the north. Hudak will try to take outer 905 seats from the Liberals, something I really feel he will struggle with. Horwath will want more small city seats and try to secure a stronger northern presence.

I too hope the Province soon adjusts its ridings to match the federal ones, that would add a significant amount to urban areas.
 
Last edited:

King of Kensington

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Messages
2,749
Reaction score
549
Long-time NDP stalwart Gerry Caplan was on Power and Politics yesterday and said he didn't understand Andrea Horwath's strategy and hadn't for a long time. He also remarked that it made no sense for her to want to trigger an election when her party is at 20% in the polls and when the Liberal budget is pretty much identical to what she'd implement as Premier.

I think the Liberals really outsmarted the NDP here. While hardly a socialist budget, it was the most progressive budget in 20 years. And the NDP has been mainly focused on consumerist appeals to the so-called "Tim Hortons's voters", focusing on issues like hydro bills and gas prices rather than a real vision for the province. Right now the Liberals appear more bold and ambitious than the NDP and indeed the NDP in many respects has positioning themselves to the right of the Liberals (i.e. they don't "respect taxpayers", they waste money, don't support "job creators", that the budget is "reckless" etc.)

The NDP has ticked off labor - who didn't want an election and fear a Hudak government - and they ticked off urban progressives with their embrace of the war on the car narrative as well as well as anti-poverty advocates by staying silent for weeks on the minimum wage. But as Andrea Horwath says, they're "entitled to their opinion" and she'll apparently just appeal to "the people" and distance herself from the traditional NDP base. Who these people are I have no clue. I don't see the NDP making inroads in more conservative regions like the 905 belt or Eastern Ontario where the NDP has traditionally been weak. Nor do I see the appeal to business amounting to anything. The strategists seem to be banking on sacrificing Toronto in return for a realignment in southwestern Ontario where the Liberals are displaced by the NDP (as was seen in recent by-elections).

I think ultimately the NDP is going to be sidelined in this election. The election will be framed as a two-way race between the Liberals making the positive case for government activism and public investments and the Tories will be railing against corruption, big government, deficits, job-killing taxes and union bosses.

In my own riding I appreciate Marchese's work on the OMB, it'll be hard for me to vote for Andrea Horwath's leadership and in any way endorse their reactionary strategy. She is an albatross in Toronto and MPPs that retain their seats will hold them because of their personal records and not their party affiliation.
 

denfromoakvillemilton

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 30, 2008
Messages
6,733
Reaction score
752
Location
Former City of York, Ontario, Canada
I actually live in the riding of Durham, last time we had a non conservative representative on any level was the early 1990's. Interestingly a lot of my town councillors are pro transit taxes but our populance just loves to vote blue no matter the candidate. they could stick a slice of cheese for the candidate and it would win. I'll vote against it, but for my riding it will likely look like this:

PC: 55%, NDP 20%, Liberal 15%, Green 7%, other 3%.


The battle will be in the outer 905 and the smaller southern Ontario cities. Wynne will be looking to pick up London, Windsor, Niagara region seats from the NDP and maybe a few from the north. Hudak will try to take outer 905 seats from the Liberals, something I really feel he will struggle with. Horwath will want more small city seats and try to secure a stronger northern presence.

I too hope the Province soon adjusts its ridings to match the federal ones, that would add a significant amount to urban areas.
I'm guessing you live in Uxbridge, Port Perry, Bowmanville, or the Beaverton area? I thought you lived in Berczy Village (Markham)?
 
Last edited:

denfromoakvillemilton

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 30, 2008
Messages
6,733
Reaction score
752
Location
Former City of York, Ontario, Canada
Just a question, but why do the municipal politics threads go in the "Toronto issues" section but this go here?

also, sure the libs chose the plant locations initially but most of the $1.1 billion figure is actually from the inreased operating costs of having the plants further away, their initial choice was to save money and lower hydro rates. had they chosen the "right" spot in the first place (and in reality their original spot was the right one, there was no way to predict the huge political backlash that would occur), $500 million of that $1.1 billion figure would have been "wasted" anyway.

I'll be voting Liberal, but I live in a very strong PC riding. My MPP is retiring which may change things up a bit, but my riding also reelected Bev Oda happily with a large majority in 2011.
Yeah this thread should be in the Toronto Issues forum, there is so much at stake for Toronto with respect to transit (to the point where it doesn't really matter who the next mayor is) that is should be there.

I'll vote would like to Liberal but Marchese has my riding locked up anyway. Here's hoping your 905 riding innsert (as well as others) don't go blue this time around.
Because this is not just about Toronto! Everything is at stake here!
 

innsertnamehere

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
14,693
Reaction score
9,604
I'm guessing you live in Uxbridge, Port Perry, Bowmanville, or the Beaverton area? I thought you lived in Berczy Village (Markham)?
guess which town has access to the Stouffville GO line which I am always discussing?

I'm in Markham a lot though, so you will hear me talk about it a lot. Heck, I'm all over the GTA, especially the eastern portion. I have no real set area of the city I stick to, I am off some far flung part of the city for some reason or another all the time. In the last 2 weeks I have been to Aurora, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, Vaughan, Downtown, Mississauga (Erin Mills area), Northern Etobicoke, Thornhill, Pickering, Stouffville, and Ajax. The only part of the GTA I really rarely visit and am fairly unfamiliar with is Oakville and Burlington. I sleep way up in northern Durham sure, but almost every day I'm somewhere for something. Be that work, seeing friends, going to school, etc.
 
Last edited:

denfromoakvillemilton

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 30, 2008
Messages
6,733
Reaction score
752
Location
Former City of York, Ontario, Canada
guess which town has access to the Stouffville GO line which I am always discussing?

I'm in Markham a lot though, so you will hear me talk about it a lot. Heck, I'm all over the GTA, especially the eastern portion. I have no real set area of the city I stick to, I am off some far flung part of the city for some reason or another all the time. In the last 2 weeks I have been to Aurora, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, Vaughan, Downtown, Mississauga (Erin Mills area), Northern Etobicoke, Thornhill, Pickering, Stouffville, and Ajax. The only part of the GTA I really rarely visit and am fairly unfamiliar with is Oakville and Burlington. I sleep way up in northern Durham sure, but almost every day I'm somewhere for something. Be that work, seeing friends, going to school, etc.
Uxbridge... I guess you drive a lot then. Oakville and Burlington are the nicest parts of the GTA, you should visit since you came out Mississauga, check out Brampton too. I guess going all around the area should give you a a good feel of what kind of transit is needed in each right?
 

lesouris

Active Member
Member Bio
Joined
Feb 24, 2008
Messages
599
Reaction score
10
I'm in Trinity-Spadina (for now). While I'm very much upset with the NDP for forcing this election, I somewhat understand why they did it. Marchese will likely get my vote, but it will be a vote for Marchese, not for the NDP.
I'm in Davenport feeling the same way. I'm hoping the NDP does well enough to remain relevant, but poorly enough to force a re-think of the retail populist strategy they've developed over the past few years. I've heard rumblings that most of the Toronto NDP caucus didn't want this election, so I don't feel I need to punish my MPP for it.

For those predicting a PC government, it's important to remember that the Liberal vote is far more efficient than the PC vote. In the last election, they won 16 more seats than the PCs with only ~2% more of the vote. I could easily see a repeat if the parties remain neck and neck through the campaign. It's also not impossible that the Liberals could win a minority government despite the PCs winning the popular vote.

And for those suggesting the NDP and the Liberals will split the left vote leading to a PC majority, remember there's just as likely a chance that the NDP and PCs will split the anti-Liberal vote this time around.

As an aside, I would not be at all surprised if this election saw the lowest voter turnout in Ontario history. I've spoken to many people, even the politically engaged, who are just going to stay home.
 

innsertnamehere

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
14,693
Reaction score
9,604
a perfect example of the more efficient Liberal vote is the latest projections, the PCs have a 1 point lead but the Liberals still taking more seats.

That said, the "advantage" is really only a few seats. IMO this election is a Liberal vs. PC game with an ever so slight Liberal lead.
 

Top