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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

Dave Agar (CFRB great morning news man) totally destroyed Hudak 100,000 jobs cut idea in his "news and views" segment this morning (may 20) news&views (3 minutes into it)

Twitter went crazy yesterday as (possible soon to be PC leader, and resistant red meat attacker) Lisa MacLeod said "hey also understand that there will be a lot of attrition through that period of time, whether there's maternity leaves or retirement" Attrition through Mat leave?? Attriton through Mat leave?

Polls As we talked in the Hudak thread the Ekos came out late last week with.. Lib 37% vs PC 30% vs NDP 21 %..... If we take into account of the 2011 poll success ratio (94%) Ekos came in between Forum (who had the most accurate result in 2011, with 98% success ratio) and currently thinks Lib is winning 38% vs PC 35% vs NDP 21% and Ipsos Reid who had the worst out of the three in 2011 prediction (90% success ratio) who currently has PC leading 43% vs Lib 31 % vs NDP 22%.

Sun news just came out with an Abacus date poll they had all voters Lib 33%... PC 33%... NDP 26%... They have "likely voters as... Lib 33%... PC 36%... NDP 25%. The greens are about 6%...Abacus had a pretty good success record in 2011 getting everything about a point off with a 96% success ratio.....
I think likely voters is more accurate is as I think there a lot of Lib/NDP undecided that will go to whoever best to keep PC away.
 
StatGeek said:
Dave Agar (CFRB great morning news man) totally destroyed Hudak 100,000 jobs cut idea in his "news and views" segment this morning (may 20) news&views (3 minutes into it)

Twitter went crazy yesterday as (possible soon to be PC leader, and resistant red meat attacker) Lisa MacLeod said "hey also understand that there will be a lot of attrition through that period of time, whether there's maternity leaves or retirement" Attrition through Mat leave?? Attriton through Mat leave?

Polls As we talked in the Hudak thread the Ekos came out late last week with.. Lib 37% vs PC 30% vs NDP 21 %..... If we take into account of the 2011 poll success ratio (94%) Ekos came in between Forum (who had the most accurate result in 2011, with 98% success ratio) and currently thinks Lib is winning 38% vs PC 35% vs NDP 21% and Ipsos Reid who had the worst out of the three in 2011 prediction (90% success ratio) who currently has PC leading 43% vs Lib 31 % vs NDP 22%.

Sun news just came out with an Abacus date poll they had all voters Lib 33%... PC 33%... NDP 26%... They have "likely voters as... Lib 33%... PC 36%... NDP 25%. The greens are about 6%...Abacus had a pretty good success record in 2011 getting everything about a point off with a 96% success ratio.....
I think likely voters is more accurate is as I think there a lot of Lib/NDP undecided that will go to whoever best to keep PC away.
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Attrition through Mat leave? Wow...disgusting.

She also says many will be employed through outsourcing....so basically....hire everyone to do the job at a lower wage...get your corporate buddy the contract and instead of having a bunch of well paid employees in a public service have 1 person in a private company get the wealth and pay the workers peanuts. The conservative way.

This will bring thousands of people from the middle class to the working class...less disposable income and a big ripple effect in the economy.
 
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Hudak’s plan to upload subways is a raw deal for Toronto
By Matt Elliott Metro

Ontario PC Leader Tim Hudak’s plan to create — pause for dramatic effect — ONE MILLION JOBS includes a pledge to “put the province in charge of all rail-based transit and major highways in the GTA.â€

In subsequent interviews, Hudak has clarified that by “all rail-based transit†the PCs don’t actually mean all rail-based transit. They’d leave out Toronto’s streetcar system, even though it seems reasonable to say streetcars do run on rails.

Anyway, under Hudak, streetcars would stay with the TTC. And the pledge wouldn’t mean taking control of the planned rail-based transit lines on Finch or Sheppard, or the LRT in Mississauga and Hamilton. He says he’ll just cancel those.

So, through process of elimination, we get to the core of Hudak’s plan to upload Toronto’s subway system to a provincial agency, freeing it from TTC control.

This is a disastrous idea for Toronto, one that would dramatically hurt the TTC’s ability to offer quality service across the city. If Toronto voters needed another reason not to support the Ontario PCs, this is it.

Toronto’s subway system can’t just be cleaved off from the rest of the TTC’s operations. The TTC operates a complete transit network, with buses and streetcars feeding into subway corridors. Separating that network by uploading a key piece of it threatens the system’s ability to provide efficient service.

Toronto’s subways are often described as profitable because they draw high ridership, but this is an oversimplification. Subway ridership greatly depends on inter-connectivity with surface routes, which generally require higher subsidies — if those subsidized surface routes vanished, subway ridership would drop significantly. As would the system’s supposed profitability.

Under Hudak’s plan, there would be a genuine risk of that happening. City hall would be left with a surface system that looks a lot like a hopeless money-loser on their operating balance sheets, while the province would gain an asset that shows an annual surplus. But those subway profits would still be largely driven by surface ridership subsidized by Toronto taxpayers.

In effect, Hudak’s plan is a recipe for Toronto to continue to pay more than its fair share for transit operations, or else cut bus service and ultimately hurt transit ridership. It’s also a recipe for dysfunction.

And for what reason?

Hudak bases his plan on a notion that transit planning in the GTA has been messy — which is certainly true — and streamlining the GTA’s transit agencies will help get things done more quickly. But this ignores that most of the squabbling we’ve seen around transit planning has been driven by provincial electioneering and bait-and-switch funding promises. But, anyway, even if we buy Hudak’s rationale, why stop with the TTC’s subways? Why not propose uploading the entire TTC system, preserving network connectivity?

But — oops! — that would mean Queen’s Park would actually have to spend money providing transit service.
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http://metronews.ca/voices/ford-for...-to-upload-subways-is-a-raw-deal-for-toronto/

One of the main reasons why I cannot support Hudak cherry-picking apart our transit system (another transit-related one is the cancellation of GO Transit Electrification). And on top of that, I simply feel that I cannot trust him to keep funding levels as is, nor do I believe that he will seriously attempt to get the DRL built.
 
BobbyS said:
Attrition through Mat leave? Wow...disgusting.
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Depends. There's lots of folks, my wife included who at the end of their Mat leave decide not to return to work, and resign their positions. There must be a statistic somewhere on the likelihood of this, and the number crunchers factor this into their attrition numbers.
 
In case you needed another reason to vote for Hudak:

Privatizing Toronto’s public transit an option if it would ease gridlock: Hudak

The Progressive Conservative platform includes a pledge to put the province in charge of all rail-based transit and major highways in the GTA.

The province, under Hudak, would then look to encourage new forms of investment in the system.

“Private sector investment, pension investment – that will build more subways and expand GO services and it will help create jobs.”
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http://globalnews.ca/news/1352454/h...e-bill-to-reduce-traffic-gridlock-in-the-gta/
 
Here are the latest overall poll from the top 4 pollsters currently giving out numbers (in order of success of 2011)

Forum (May 20) Libs 41... PC 34... NDP 20... Grn 4
Abacus (May 16) Libs 33... PC 33... NDP 26... Grn 6
Ekos (May 23) Libs 36... PC 30... NDP 20... Grn 12
Ipsos (May 21) Libs 31... PC 35... NDP 28... Oth 6

I just don't buy the Ipsos poll, their PC dominance over the Liberals is not being shown in any other poll except theirs (even though it has narrowed in the last Ipsos poll) and their claim of this NDP surge i just haven't seen or felt it especially with the a lot of unions and lefties angry about this election and feeling betrayed by the NDP.

ehlow, I haven't got my voting card either yet. I will give it another week before I start asking questions.
 
I agree. Divided parties generally don't do well in elections, and the rifts within the NDP have been exposed. There's a tension between principles and appealing to the broader electorate, but in order to do that you have to bring your base along and not totally alienate them.
 
StatGeek said:
Here are the latest overall poll from the top 4 pollsters currently giving out numbers (in order of success of 2011)

Forum (May 20) Libs 41... PC 34... NDP 20... Grn 4
Abacus (May 16) Libs 33... PC 33... NDP 26... Grn 6
Ekos (May 23) Libs 36... PC 30... NDP 20... Grn 12
Ipsos (May 21) Libs 31... PC 35... NDP 28... Oth 6

I just don't buy the Ipsos poll, their PC dominance over the Liberals is not being shown in any other poll except theirs (even though it has narrowed in the last Ipsos poll) and their claim of this NDP surge i just haven't seen or felt it especially with the a lot of unions and lefties angry about this election and feeling betrayed by the NDP.

ehlow, I haven't got my voting card either yet. I will give it another week before I start asking questions.
Click to expand...

Forum are out today with a new poll....

http://www.threehundredeight.com/ said:
Forum was last in the field on May 20. Since then, the Liberals dropped five points to 36%, moving them into a tie with the Tories, who were up two points. The NDP was unchanged at 20%, while the Greens were up three points to 7%.
Click to expand...
 
Ipsos just came out with a new one with the Liberals up 3 points too.. (though still behind the PCs, the gap between the two over the last 2 weeks has closed from 11% to 2% according to Ipsos)
 
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