Ford may start on the ballot, but he won't be in the running. No I won't bet you.
IMO the only way Ford wins re-election is if this video is fake. And I find this possibility extremely remote at this point.
I'd say Holyday's got a much better chance of winning the next election, but I doubt he'll run. He's an easy pick to inherit Ford Nation with minimal loss of the base.
Ford's a spent force. If this whole thing doesn't get him, the next 18 months will. All the major news outlets are now after this story - even the Sun is breaking stuff now.
Also, the powers that be on the right, don't want to back Ford, he's toxic.
I'd be very curious on a Holyday v. Chow poll.