Juan_Lennon416
Senior Member
Time to give the NDP a chance to govern!
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2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises
- Thread starter innsertnamehere
- Start date
crs1026
Senior Member
I wonder how that chart would look if one graphed the prevailing interest rates over the same period. The most recent periods may show improvement simply because as interest rates have eased, the cost of that debt has gone down. That may have been a windfall, and nothing wrong with that - but there are enough hints that rates may rise again before too long. To say that deficits are under control, one has to do a bit of a stress test to see what the picture is if rates rise.
I don't think it's being fake-newsy to note that Wynne's plans suddenly ramped up spending without commensurate ramping up of revenue. Out-of-control? Perhaps not, but a Hail Mary to be sure. If you suddenly ramp up deficits to win an election, you are inherently out of control. All the economic theory in the world doesn't change that. Walks like a duck....
Most of the deficit being put forward by both Liberals and NDP is attributable to accelerated social programs. Maybe those programs are worthwhile - and much of the urgency seems to be a sense of "can't wait any longer" - but one still has to ask whether it's good to ramp these up with borrowed money. As a guy who pays his charge card balance off every month, I'm not willing to concede that 2018 is a recessionary year where deficits will kickstart our economy. Someone will always argue that you can have a Cinnabon or two and not ruin your waistline..... true, but that's a slippery slope that this voter prefers to stay off.
The NDP platform certainly gives a healthy attention to the deficits. That is the message moreso than where exact numbers fall. That to me is a good reason to take the NDP seriously.
The good news is, as a percentage of any of the parties' financial platform, the transit proposals we have had on the table will not sink the ship, and should not be fodder for 'reductions'. We should continue to press all parties for more specific commitments.
- Paul
Allandale25
Senior Member
Break out the tea leaves: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...ry-to-read-tea-leaves-on-doug-fords-plan-for/
nfitz
Superstar
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Sandpit
Active Member
That NDP Premier is now a Liberal, so it doesn't count.
nfitz
Superstar
Not a Liberal that's been anywhere close to the decision making process in any Liberal government.
Which colouring in the rest of the chart might evidence.
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TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Niftz, while your point is well taken that interest costs as a percentage of revenue are not at historic highs I don’t think it negates the argument that taking on more debt at this time is fiscally questionable.
That graph you posted, the choice of axis, the choice of variables, let’s just say it’s a tactically conceived publication by the government.
That graph you posted, the choice of axis, the choice of variables, let’s just say it’s a tactically conceived publication by the government.
nfitz
Superstar
I don't see much indication that there is any taking on of any significant extra debt. The budget is currently in surplus. The small debts that are forecast are most likely overestimates once you factor in historical capacity to spend issues. Even if they manage - for the first time in government history - to spend all their infrastructure money, the amounts are small. The debt is currently about $312 billion. With inflation alone, this can grow about $6 billion a year, without having any real impact. And this is about what the forecast deficit are. Once you factor in population growth, and GNP growth, the actual debt levels are forecast to drop.
Of course it is. But it fundamentally proves that both the NDP and PCs are grossly exaggerating the situation when they go on and on about debt. In almost every aspect the economy is booming, and debt is a non-issue - or at least it's not getting any worse.
If other parties are going to be disingenuous and claim that it's a massive issue, you know they are lying - and one questions what else they lie about.
I fundamentally don't understand the NDP - and the extreme lies about hydro rates increases (yes, hydro rates have gone up - mostly from 7 to 14 years ago, rather than in the last 7 years - but no where near the 300% that the NDP lies about). Are people really that gullible that they'd fall for such an obvious lie, that their own bills prove is false? And as for the PCs ... still waiting for their new platform ... given they tossed out the old one when they replaced the rapist with the pathologically lying drug dealer supported by the bigoted Evangelical Christian nutter.
So ... what about the Greens?
pman
Senior Member
It’s not that hysterical to express concerns about the sustainability of our latest ramp up of the provincial debt. Lost in the discussion is any consideration of the economic environment over the next decade. Central banks have started the normalization process so it’s almost certain that interest rates will rise. Ontario will add around $40 billion a year of new debt starting in the 2019-2020 fiscal year (much due to refinancing and capital spending, neither of which are accounted for in the deficit). An increase in rates of 200 bps - not unlikely - by then would add around $800 million a year in interest costs every year, so that our decade out annual interest bill will be around $20 billion from the current $12 billion. Not great. Add to that the revenue challenge. Our economic outlook is hardly robust. Whatever replaces NAFTA will be somewhat worse, and manufacturing is already anemic. The Trump corporate tax cuts and our made-in-Ontario electricity mismanagement will only make the manufacturing sector somewhat more tenuous. What’s left? Ring of Fire? Perhaps not. Tech? Maybe, but unlikely enough to drive the entire economy. Real estate? Yes on immigration-fuelled population growth and no on rates/macroprudential policy. So net-net not a particularly promising revenue outlook for the province. And with a global recovery that’s pretty long in the tooth, we should factor in a recession or two in the next decade, with significant hits to the deficit. So...I know, so boring when there’s Social Justice to do...but Wynne has probably set us up for a decade of markedly deteriorating provincial finances that stand a reasonable chance of significantly underperforming her forecast that it’s all manageable.
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Put simply: it is my opinion that both the revenue and debt servicing cost assumptions underlying the government’s projections do not reflect the high sensitivity of those assumptions to changes in conditions.
Back on topic to transit one of the assumptions on this forum that I feel needs further discussion and has political ramifications is the idea of roads, public transit and income. Policy that favours public transit and alternative modes of transportation is touted as progressive with respect to low-income individuals in planning ideas and on this forum. I question this assumption. Low income people, the working poor, young people or retired people etc. they make up a huge segment of the driving population both as car owners or something they do as part of their jobs. They are also more likely to be hurt by policies that restrict and increase costs for car operation, parking etc. Portraying roads and cars as the purview of suburban suv hugging wealthy suburbanites is a fundamental misread in my opinion of how our city functions.
Back on topic to transit one of the assumptions on this forum that I feel needs further discussion and has political ramifications is the idea of roads, public transit and income. Policy that favours public transit and alternative modes of transportation is touted as progressive with respect to low-income individuals in planning ideas and on this forum. I question this assumption. Low income people, the working poor, young people or retired people etc. they make up a huge segment of the driving population both as car owners or something they do as part of their jobs. They are also more likely to be hurt by policies that restrict and increase costs for car operation, parking etc. Portraying roads and cars as the purview of suburban suv hugging wealthy suburbanites is a fundamental misread in my opinion of how our city functions.
W. K. Lis
Superstar
They're assuming anti-transit, pro-automobile Doug Ford will be the winner. See link. The ghost of Rob Ford has made his first appearance.
Finch LRT delayed another year
With the upcoming provincial election casting doubt on the future of the light rail line, Metrolinx now says it can’t be completed until 2023.
Finch LRT delayed another year
With the upcoming provincial election casting doubt on the future of the light rail line, Metrolinx now says it can’t be completed until 2023.
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Streety McCarface
Senior Member
Great, sheppard east delayed another 2 years...~
On the bright side, though, it will enable the City and Metrolinx to learn mistakes from both Finch West and Eglinton. I always thought it was really stupid of Miller and Metrolinx to plan like 5 LRT lines without even testing the technology here first.
muller877
Senior Member
How the heck does Metrolinx blame the election on the delay? After the failure of creating proper accountability in the BBD streetcar contract they did it again in their new contract with the builder of the LRT line. A proper contract would have had penalties if they did not deliver on a specific date.
This isn't a Brittney Spears song. This is creating huge disruptions in the life of people who live along the route.
On a secondary note any person who works for the Province including the MTO (Celso Pereira) should not be commenting on an upcoming election. There needs to be a separation between the bureaucrats and the politicians. If he is being paid for by Ontario work for Ontario, not the Liberal party. (regardless of your political affiliation this separation is paramount in any democracy...other than Russia)
Allandale25
Senior Member
^ There's no quote in the article saying Metrolinx is blaming the delay on the election. If you read the article, you'll see this quote: "A Metrolinx spokesperson said Thursday the agency had revised the completion date to 2023 after consultation with Mosaic Transit Group, the consortium the province announced last week had been selected to build the 11-kilometre line. “They gave us a construction schedule that they believe they can meet, and that was 2023,” said Anne Marie Aikins." The Star write decided to use the words "provincial election casting doubt" and link it to 2023 which is the date Mosaic gave.
It's the proponent that has told Metrolinx they need until 2023. If you listen to Phil Verster's interview on Metro Morning, he says it's all systems go until a government tells them otherwise.
It's the proponent that has told Metrolinx they need until 2023. If you listen to Phil Verster's interview on Metro Morning, he says it's all systems go until a government tells them otherwise.