2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[AlvinofDiaspar]

They did get their platform vetted by former Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, who has deemed the numbers 'reasonable'.

Iff they follow each and every bit of the budget document - which parties never do - and lord knows how the spending promises flow.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

Iff they follow each and every bit of the budget document - which parties never do - and lord knows how the spending promises flow.

AoD

Again, non-partisan here, their platform gives the most detail on cash-flow costing I can recall.

 

[syn]

Interesting - they seem to have adopted much of the Liberal platform wrt transit, along with a promise to build the DRL ASAP (which is kind of vague).

Overall it seems like reasonable platform.

 

[aquateam]

Let's not forget that under 10 years of Harper government, he balanced the budget only twice, the 2 election years...it was deficits over deficits the entire time. I think taxpayers have caught on politicians promising to balance the budget.

The only way I'll believe it is either through huge tax increases or austerity. Anything else is just empty promises

There was also a recession though. The typical Keynesian formula is: deficits during recessions, austerity once recovered. I don't think anyone would have wanted a balanced budget in 2007-2009, in fact I recall it being an election issue that the Conservatives hadn't ran a deficit earlier to try to stimulate the economy.

Multiple balanced budgets in 10 years is also a big improvement over "assuming projections are accurate, budget will balance itself three decades from now."

 

[crs1026]

In fairness to the NDP, upon reading their whole platform, they propose lower deficits than the Liberal plan, adding roughly 1/2 as much debt over 5 years.

They also don't propose to raise income tax on anyone making under $220,000 per year, and don't propose to raise the small business tax rate or the sales tax.

There are some issues I have w/the choices they propose, but they are not inherently radical or unreasonable taken in the aggregate, when compared with what others have put on the table.

After reading the fine details - I’m not seeing how the promise and the money lines up.

The operating boost to transit is reasonable, and not a large item compared to health and other social spending. But, I don’t see any dollars behind the commitment to speed up the relief line. The Northern Rail Strategy is way underfunded if they intend to make capital investments to get rail lines up north back up to passenger speeds. The uplift from their version of fare integrati9n isn’t mentioned. No specifics on how they would break the CN logjam or how they see things like the bypass.

And, there is a huge revenue assumption from taxing rich individuals and businesses. I’m not arguing with that - I hate watching people claim business deductions that are awfully loose - but I’m doubtful that this money will materialise.

I’m enthused by the tone of the transit commitment. One other thing that caught my eye was the statement that they will cease the use of P3. That may be pushing the pendulum over a bit far - overall, the promises to bake contracted and privatised functions back into the civil service is not sitting well - but perhaps it would save ML from a few foibles.

Certainly, more detailed and thought through than Doug, and not the absurd splurge that Wynne is proposing ..... but still awfully presumptive about the money pouring in for it all.

- Paul

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The NDP released their platform today (full version here). As it relates to transit, here are the highlights:


Am I the only one paraphrasing this as the cancellation of most of RER (save for the Kitchener corridor)?
They do mention electrification (specifically "We will also electrify GO networks and the UP Express") but given the fact they they singled out the Kitchener corridor, I'm worried.
Also note the absence of all other LRT projects (except for Hamilton's).
Now, I get that Howarth will not be our premier, but I was hoping she would not cancel any existing commitments.

I assume that they mean DRL South, and not DRL North + South, right?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I just skimmed the platform, and I'm genuinely excited about their proposals. Especially pharmacare, daycare and transit. I still have to read it in full, but it's highly likely that the NDP has won over my support. What a change from 2014!

 

[syn]

There was also a recession though. The typical Keynesian formula is: deficits during recessions, austerity once recovered. I don't think anyone would have wanted a balanced budget in 2007-2009, in fact I recall it being an election issue that the Conservatives hadn't ran a deficit earlier to try to stimulate the economy.

Multiple balanced budgets in 10 years is also a big improvement over "assuming projections are accurate, budget will balance itself three decades from now."

Those balanced budgets were essentially inherited from the Liberals. I agree that the recession was a huge factor - but they only brought the country out of deficit in time for an election.

I find it interesting that the Liberals never get any kind of pass for the recession, which hit Ontario hard.

 

[BurlOak]

Let's not forget that under 10 years of Harper government, he balanced the budget only twice, the 2 election years...it was deficits over deficits the entire time. I think taxpayers have caught on politicians promising to balance the budget.

The only way I'll believe it is either through huge tax increases or austerity. Anything else is just empty promises

There was also a recession though. The typical Keynesian formula is: deficits during recessions, austerity once recovered. I don't think anyone would have wanted a balanced budget in 2007-2009, in fact I recall it being an election issue that the Conservatives hadn't ran a deficit earlier to try to stimulate the economy.

Multiple balanced budgets in 10 years is also a big improvement over "assuming projections are accurate, budget will balance itself three decades from now."

I count 3 balanced budgets, plus 2015/16, which was over half over, was projected by the PBO to be in surplus as well until Trudeau was elected.
You also didn't include that graph that Canada (tied with Germany), had the lowest increase in debt in the G7.

 

[nfitz]

I count 3 balanced budgets, plus 2015/16, which was over half over, was projected by the PBO to be in surplus as well until Trudeau was elected.
You also didn't include that graph that Canada (tied with Germany), had the lowest increase in debt in the G7.

Given the recession, it would be disingenuous to blame the federal deficit during that period on the Conservatives. At the same time, the Liberals did very well in Ontario during the same period of time, to both keep an handle on the deficit (which certainly didn't bloom to tens of billion of dollars), and at the same time continue infrastructure spending and keep Ontario GDP grown above average.

The bottom line is that PCs (except perhaps for their first few years of the Harris government) Libs and Cons have all been very fiscally responsible - and them pointing fingers at each other with blame is beyond absurd.

The key questions are will the PC under Drug Ford actually remain fiscally conservative, without raping the province, and will the NDPs not blow up the deficit like they did under Bob Rae?

 

[BurlOak]

Given the recession, it would be disingenuous to blame the federal deficit during that period on the Conservatives. At the same time, the Liberals did very well in Ontario during the same period of time, to both keep an handle on the deficit (which certainly didn't bloom to tens of billion of dollars), and at the same time continue infrastructure spending and keep Ontario GDP grown above average.

The bottom line is that PCs (except perhaps for their first few years of the Harris government) Libs and Cons have all been very fiscally responsible - and them pointing fingers at each other with blame is beyond absurd.

The key questions are will the PC under Drug Ford actually remain fiscally conservative, without raping the province, and will the NDPs not blow up the deficit like they did under Bob Rae?

Hahaha

 

[nfitz]

Hahaha

Not sure what's funny.

Compare the figure for the feds, versus a similar one for Ontario

One has to be overly partisan if one wants to point out much difference between deficit management between the Liberals and PC or Cs.

 

[BurlOak]

Not sure what's funny.

Compare the figure for the feds, versus a similar one for Ontario

One has to be overly partisan if one wants to point out much difference between deficit management between the Liberals and PC or Cs.

Canada debt went up 27% under Harper. Same time, Ontario Liberals debt went up 108%.

If I remember my math right, 108% >> 27%.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Canada debt went up 27% under Harper. Same time, Ontario Liberals debt went up 108%.

If I remember my math right, 108% >> 27%.

That’s an apples to oranges comparison. The provincial governments have a lot more responsibilities than the federal. You should only be comparing to other provincial governments.

 

[nfitz]

Canada debt went up 27% under Harper. Same time, Ontario Liberals debt went up 108%.

If I remember my math right, 108% >> 27%.

I've no idea whether that's true or not - but anyone who can remember math correctly would know that's not a valid comparison, because it's based on what the initial debt was in the first place - which is not the fault of either leader. In total magnitude, the federal went up far more - but that's not relevant either.

What's relevant is debt load. Yes, Ontario debt has gone up, but so has inflation, population, and production. When you adjust for all these, the debt has been relatively flat for years, including during the "great recession" (which honestly didn't seem bad enough in Ontario to earn the name).

What really matters is how much the debt costs. So divide the interest on the debt by revenue, and you can see if it's sustainable or not. And that's what matters.

And when you do that, you see that the recession added little to the debt, and it has come down for 3-4 years. In reality the big issues started during the NDP government and continued unabated during Harris's first term. It wasn't really until Harris's second term, and when Ernie Eves was Premier that things started to improve, and then though Sorbara and Duncan.

There's certainly none of this out-of-control debt stuff that the fake-news liars like to point out.

And only a partisan fool points to major differences between PC and Liberal fiscal policy on deficit and debt issues!

The NDP however, might be an different story.