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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

Brown is certainly trying to appear more moderate, much like he did while he was running for the leadership of the PC party. Given his own hard right views though, it's hard to believe that he wouldn't pull a bait and switch should he get elected. I'm worried that this moderate tone he's using will get him elected next time around.
 
I'll eat a sock if it happens.
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Reminds me of when Harper became leader of the Cons in 2003 and people - myself included - said "I'll eat my hat if a social con Reformer becomes PM." Brown's underdog win in the PC leadership race shows that he should not be underestimated.
 
mjl08 said:
Reminds me of when Harper became leader of the Cons in 2003 and people - myself included - said "I'll eat my hat if a social con Reformer becomes PM." Brown's underdog win in the PC leadership race shows that he should not be underestimated.
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Oh, I am not dismissing Brown's ability to win an election.

I'm dismissing the idea that Brown would turn the Ontario PCs into a progressive, Red Tory party.
 
Videodrome said:
The Liberals won't win this seat.
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Normally, I'd agree. Look at the federal riding though. It was 58% Conservative 14% Liberal in the 2011 election. Most of it went to the new Whitby riding where the 2011 redistributed results were 59% Conservative and 21% Liberal - but in 2015 ended up as 45% Liberal and 42 Conservative.

Provincially however, the riding has always been closer. 48% PC to 33% Liberal in 2011 and 41% PC to 31% Liberal in 2014.

In Ontario the Liberals got 45% compared to 35% for the Conservatives in the 2015 federal election - and that kind of support was enough to flip this riding. If you look at the latest Ontario polls, the Liberals are now polling 44% compared to 31% for the PCs - compared to 39% for the Liberals and 31% for the PCs during the 2014 Ontario election.

With the loss of the PC incumbent, and the current peak in Ontario Liberal support, the riding could be in play. I suspect it will be close, but will stay Tory. But it would I think come down to the local candidates - of which I know nothing. If there's any significant movement from the NDP to the Liberals, I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals win this one.
 
Not sure for the source of the 21%; the last polling (Ipsos Reid) got a 41% "of the performance of the Liberal government under the leadership of Kathleen Wynne". And best Premier was 36% Wynne, 34% Howarth, and 30% Brown.

Much of this might come down to when the by-election is. What's the deadline? It only took a few days after the previous Tory resign, for Wynne to call a by-election. It's been 3 months now, and too late to have the by-election before Christmas. I'd guess a call just after New Years, so first week of February or so.
 
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Not sure there'd be much differentiation ... googling, looks like older polling from while Harper was still PM. There seems to have been a big shift after Trudeau took office, and turned out to appear a lot more ready that Harper ever had - more so federally, where the Liberals are now polling in the high 40s to mid 50s, but to a lesser extent provincially in Ontario as well. Wynne may well have erred not calling the by-election for early December.
 
One thing to look at is how Wynne's in-your-face endorsement of Trudeau did not have a negative effect on him during the Federal election, as many expected would be the case.

I think Wynne is unpopular, but people still support her despite the lack of popularity. Horwath for example, has the highest approval rating, yet the NDP has been reduced to third party status in both Provincial and Federal elections (being trounced in Ontario especially).

It continues to amaze me that the opposition hasn't been able to topple the Liberals in Ontario, considering the Liberals have handed them both elections on silver platters. Even in the Sudbury by-election, rife with scandal, the Liberals still managed to come out ahead. It's incredible.

Perhaps this is a case of sticking with the devil you know? Liberals benefiting from voter apathy?
 
Tuscani01 said:
It continues to amaze me that the opposition hasn't been able to topple the Liberals in Ontario, considering the Liberals have handed them both elections on silver platters.
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This province has been cursed with an inept opposition. The kindest thing I can say about Horwath is that she does not appear to be up to the job. The less said about Hudak the better. Brown seems anxious to avoid the mistakes of the past, and to do what it takes to make the PCs electable (the Harper approach), even if it means sanding down the party's rougher edges. Jury is still out on whether or not he'll succeed.
 
Tuscani01 said:
It continues to amaze me that the opposition hasn't been able to topple the Liberals in Ontario, considering the Liberals have handed them both elections on silver platters. Even in the Sudbury by-election, rife with scandal, the Liberals still managed to come out ahead. It's incredible.
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This province has been cursed with an inept opposition
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And the PCs have been cursed with terrible campaigns. There were three elections where the Liberals handed the PC's the election on a platter. In 2007, the PCs killed their chances with religious school funding. In 2011, they lost due to a cold and unlikable Hudak. In 2014, a repeated paltry performance by Hudak and terrible policy planks like 100,000 axed public jobs did them in.
 
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