Flightaware tells me that yesterday (Friday) Thunder Bay airport saw 7 commercial flights to Pearson, 6 to Billy Bishop, 5 to Winnipeg, 2 to Ottawa, and 1 to Calgary.
Plus umpteen connector flights to all the small places up that way - Dryden, Fort Frances, Geraldton, Sioux Lookout, ˚enora, etc etc.
That's a lot of seats filled.
The CP line directly parallels the Trans Canada in both directions out of town. I suppose one could argue that some of those passengers would prefer the train if it were reliable, comfortable, and speedy.... but if a bus can't compete on the Trans Canada, then a train can't either. The reality is - most people would rather fly.
- Paul
They used to until Via Canadian switched to the CN route. True that government jobs might have a need to connect to Toronto (there really aren't that many resource-based jobs there), I'm not sure a lengthy train ride would win out over a two hour flight. The route around Superior is much more scenic though.
You'd be surprised how little people in the northwest interact, follow or even care about the south.
I think there is demand, if its correctly understood.
The idea that T-Bay Toronto is the primary market I think is questionable, though the flight traffic shows there's a market there, to be sure, that is an extremely long haul by land transportation.
I would tend to think of it more like extended commuter rail, that Thunder Bay is the hub of so much in its area. Many need to go there for Health Care, but there's also all the university students at Lakehead, and many other like services both for those who may commute daily, but also for those who simply want to come home on weekends, or for holidays.
Of course, the argument goes, virtually all, certainly 99.5% of all persons using T-Bay as a hub will have a car, if not two in their household as that's pretty much necessary.
But in many cases, like with University Students, or someone down for an operation, there many be a compelling reason that you would either prefer to take the train in, or would require a drive from someone else.
I think returning the Canadian to what is the more scenic route gives a useful connection to Toronto or Winnipeg 2 - 3x per week. But what's more needed is a 2x daily service over a shorter distance.
White River or Marathon to TB from the south; Atikoken to T-Bay from the North-west.
But clearly you don't want a large crew and a 5 car plus train making that run; a train that can operate with a crew of 2, + 1 cabin staff if the demand is there for added service options, and run a short 3-car operation.
I don't know what current track speeds are, and how much passing track would be needed to keep CP happy and a traIn reliable, but over shorter distances the upgrades should be a more reasonable cost (or so I would imagine)
