VIA Rail

[Northern Light]

While Canada doesn't really have leverage in this transaction....in the regulatory space......

It might have something CN would need (if you believe it will get approval at all).............money.

CN is proposing to take on a very large amount of debt to finance this transaction. I would argue an unhealthy amount.

Were an offer to come along that didn't adversely affect CN's ability to operate; but purchased corridor space for VIA/Mx; and/or expansion, I think CN could probably use the financial boost.

The obvious choice is the balance of the North Mainline (to London) which is not core to CN in terms of outright purchase.

But there might also be opportunities where the corridor is wide enough, to establish a VIA sub (its own 2-track corridor running parallel to CN).

Whether the latter investment would be worth it; or the former might be more suited to Mx are fair questions.

But certainly an extra Billion in CN's pocket right now is something to which management might be receptive.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1399413454683901956

 

[roger1818]

The same logic could be applied to most of the Corridor inside Ontario. Toronto-London is 6 lane minimum the whole way and still getting jammed up. We're at 6 lane minimum till Coburg and probably going to 6 lane till Belleville, if not Kingston by the end of the decade. So there's absolutely a strong argument for the province to start incorporating rail development. Going from Coburg to the Quebec border was estimated at $2.5-3 billion in 2018.

If VIA is going to take another decade just building Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal, and a decade after that getting to Windsor, there are real costs to the province. Queen's Park should be asking if they can do it better.

Question (since I have never been on the 401 west of the 403): is the 401 jammed up all the way to London? GO has already extended its service to KW, and, if it can be justified, extending it to London (about 80 km beyond Kitchener) could be a future logical step. Do you beleive that traffic congestion will extend beyond London anytime soon to justify GO service beyond London to Sarnia and Windsor?

East of Toronto, GO is planning on expanding the Lakeshore East line to Bowmanville (about 16km east of Oshawa), but while this has been planned for several years, AFAIK, there is no date for it to be completed. Also, while it is possible that they might want to widen the 401 to 6 lanes to Belleville (about 125 km east of Oshawa) or Kingston (about 125 km east of Oshawa) by the end of the the decade, the question is what percentage of the passenger vehicle traffic (i.e. not trucks) on the 401 is going to/from Ottawa, or Montreal (the major destinations served by HFR)? As a result, how long would they delay the need to widen the 401 east of Coburg by accelerating HFR?

Regarding that article, I can't help but wonder if a large percentage of the problems with the 401 east of Coburg is related to truck traffic. I suspect that finding a way to get most of those trucks off of the highway and on to rail would do far more to improve safety than widening the 401 to 6 lanes. Granted that is easier said than done.

I am not trying to argue against HFR (it certainly has value), it just wouldn't provide the same savings in road infrastructure that improved GO service provides to Metrolinx. I do see Metrolinx eventually taking over responsibility over regional rail to communities beyond the GTHA like London, Coburg, Bellville, and maybe eventually even Kingston, but struggle to see them seeing significant financial benefit in taking over intercity rail to more distant destinations like Ottawa and Windsor. IMHO, they would rather leave that to VIA Rail, even if the federal government is being slow.

 

[lenaitch]

While I to am frustrated with the lack of movement on HFR, I am not convinced that having Metrolinx/GO take over would improve things all that much. It is true that Metrolinx has made huge investments in GO, one has to realize that Metrolinx is responsible for regional Transportation (not just regional Transit) in the GTHA and thus are responsible for the highways and regional roads. Since traffic congestion is a major issue in Toronto, Metrolinx has a choice between widening roads and improving regional transit. As a result, it is easy to build a business case that investing in GO will be cheaper than widening roads, and any fiscally responsible government will pick an investment in GO.

Once you get outside the golden horseshoe, traffic congestion becomes a much less significant issue, so the cost/benefit analysis doesn't become as clear, even if Metrolinx's mandate was extended to include all of southern Ontario.

No they're not. The MTO is responsible for provincial highways and the local (regional or lower tier) municipalities are responsible for roads under their jurisdiction.

Regarding that article, I can't help but wonder if a large percentage of the problems with the 401 east of Coburg is related to truck traffic. I suspect that finding a way to get most of those trucks off of the highway and on to rail would do far more to improve safety than widening the 401 to 6 lanes. Granted that is easier said than done.

Yes, it seems that truck volume is a big part of the problem. I saw another image the other day that was more telling but, of course, can't find it now. One problem is how does rail get loading dock-to- loading dock time down to matching trucks? A rig can leave Toronto and be in Montreal in, what 7, 8 hours. Just-in-time delivery has essentially unloaded the warehousing needs of many companies onto the public roads.
[/QUOTE]

 

[roger1818]

No they're not. The MTO is responsible for provincial highways and the local (regional or lower tier) municipalities are responsible for roads under their jurisdiction.

I stand corrected (I had received my information from Wikipedia, but checking further, you are right). Having said that, even with the MTO responsible for the highways, they are both provincial agencies and if Metrolinx can prove that investments in them can reduce investments in highways, it amounts to the same thing (though admittedly there is more political maneuvering).

Yes, it seems that truck volume is a big part of the problem. I saw another image the other day that was more telling but, of course, can't find it now. One problem is how does rail get loading dock-to- loading dock time down to matching trucks? A rig can leave Toronto and be in Montreal in, what 7, 8 hours. Just-in-time delivery has essentially unloaded the warehousing needs of many companies onto the public roads.

That is why I said "easier said than done." It impossible though. Not everything needs a door to door delivery in 7-8 hours, and if money could be saved by shipping it overnight instead, many industries would do it. The key would be partnering with the railways to provide a cost competitive option (something like CP's former Expressway rail service, but backed by the government to help keep costs down).

Hitting the rails - Truck News

MILTON, Ont. - Canadian Pacific Railway kicked off what it calls "the future of long-haul freight transportation" last month with the inauguration of its new Expressway intermodal service linking Mont...

www.trucknews.com

 

[dowlingm]

Beyond the seat for seat corridor replacement, I wonder how much additional utilization VIA could be able to squeeze out of the fleet when the cab cars are rolled out. While some of the trainsets are top and tail loco right now, some are not and presumably must be wyed.

I'm not surprised that TC is looking for the LRC fleet in general to be gone at the earliest opportunity, but I am a little puzzled about that decision as it relates to the cars which went through Moncton. Did even a trainset worth of cars get rebuilt before the work required and associated costs drove IRSI to the wall?

 

[nfitz]

I'm not surprised that TC is looking for the LRC fleet in general to be gone at the earliest opportunity, but I am a little puzzled about that decision as it relates to the cars which went through Moncton. Did even a trainset worth of cars get rebuilt before the work required and associated costs drove IRSI to the wall?

The press release at the time indicates they weren't replacing the problematic aluminium frame - just doing corrosion repairs.

 

[kEiThZ]

Question (since I have never been on the 401 west of the 403): is the 401 jammed up all the way to London?

Pre-Covid was getting there. Gotta keep in mind, how much the GTA sprawls westward. You're not really out of traffic till you're past Milton. It's only going to grow post-Covid. They're already effectively building towards 12-laning all the way to Milton.

And London is increasingly becoming a Toronto exurb. It's effectively the new Hamilton, if that makes sense. There's GTA remote workers starting to discover that it's got a lot of amenities for its size and it's commutable for somebody doing it 1-2x per week. Build HxR and these numbers would rocket up.

 

[kEiThZ]

One problem is how does rail get loading dock-to- loading dock time down to matching trucks? A rig can leave Toronto and be in Montreal in, what 7, 8 hours. Just-in-time delivery has essentially unloaded the warehousing needs of many companies onto the public roads.

High speed freight. Interestingly, if VIA was willing, they could have studied that as part of the HFR plan, to see if that could get extra revenue. There's all kinds of formats from dedicated freight trains to postal trains to quick swap cargo containers on passenger trains. This comes to mind too:

SNCF TGV La Poste - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[lenaitch]

I stand corrected (I had received my information from Wikipedia, but checking further, you are right). Having said that, even with the MTO responsible for the highways, they are both provincial agencies and if Metrolinx can prove that investments in them can reduce investments in highways, it amounts to the same thing (though admittedly there is more political maneuvering).



That is why I said "easier said than done." It impossible though. Not everything needs a door to door delivery in 7-8 hours, and if money could be saved by shipping it overnight instead, many industries would do it. The key would be partnering with the railways to provide a cost competitive option (something like CP's former Expressway rail service, but backed by the government to help keep costs down).

Hitting the rails - Truck News

MILTON, Ont. - Canadian Pacific Railway kicked off what it calls "the future of long-haul freight transportation" last month with the inauguration of its new Expressway intermodal service linking Mont...

www.trucknews.com

To keep the gatekeepers happy, I moved the discussion here if anybody is interested.

General railway discussions

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/cn-cp-kansas-city-southern-railway-bid-1.6041729

urbantoronto.ca

 

[lenaitch]

High speed freight. Interestingly, if VIA was willing, they could have studied that as part of the HFR plan, to see if that could get extra revenue. There's all kinds of formats from dedicated freight trains to postal trains to quick swap cargo containers on passenger trains. This comes to mind too:

SNCF TGV La Poste - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Like the old 'silk trains'.

Silk Train

Silk Train, the term used to describe CPR cargo trains carrying expensive shipments of Oriental raw silk. The trains sped from Vancouver to merchants in eastern...

www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca

 

[Darwinkgo]

If the freight railroads want to lease extra capacity, I'm sure VIA/the private owner/operator of the tracks will oblige.

 

[crs1026]

If the freight railroads want to lease extra capacity, I'm sure VIA/the private owner/operator of the tracks will oblige.

You mean VIA would lease space on its HFR line to freight? I would bet that won’t happen, because a) the track’s banking profile and siding lengths will not be freight friendly and b) I’m sure CN and CP (and the courier companies) will achieve (have already lobbied for?) some sort of non-compete restriction on the HFR line. And c) there’s still plenty of capacity there, so it may be moot.

- Paul

 

[rbt]

If VIA is going to take another decade just building Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal, and a decade after that getting to Windsor, there are real costs to the province. Queen's Park should be asking if they can do it better.

Metrolinx is 5 years into GO Electrification and not yet awarded the tender which is expected to be around 10 years to construct. It also took 3 years got an Ontario Northland railway business plan (not even an EA).

I'm not sure Ontario could finish a project like that any faster; too many distractions with higher political value.

 

[roger1818]

You mean VIA would lease space on its HFR line to freight? I would bet that won’t happen,

It depends which section you are talking about. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the agreement for VIA to purchase the section of the Havelock Sub that is still active will include a condition that CP be allowed to continue to use the tracks. In theory VIA could build parallel tracks on the same ROW, but in this specific case I think CP would prefer offloading the maintenance costs to VIA (since CP only runs 3 trains a week) and would benefit from a higher operating speed (not HFR speeds but more than 10 mph).