It’s been exactly two months since
@reaperexpress published his post about "
mythbusting VIA's HFR travel time claims" and I'm finally able to provide some comments onto his post (strictly as a transport enthusiast, of course!).
The assessment of any transportation project always starts with establishing a "Status Quo" (or more accurately: "do nothing") scenario and that's why I start with today's travel times, even though he omitted that part in the summary he posted here:
Train 56/646 even ran the 446 km between TRTO and OTTW in only 3:46 hours (TRTO 16:35 / OTTW 20:21) in the January 2014 schedule (which is the fastest timing I found in my database) and Train 43 ran the distance in 4:05 hours (OTTW 07:20 / TRTO 11:25) until Corona struck (while the reduction of frequencies and the addition of extra stops on the remaining trips has now inflated the fastest travel time to exactly 4:30 - Train 55: OTTW 15:23 / TRTO 19:53). However, we should rather look at the
average scheduled travel times, as they are much more representative for the travel times passengers are currently promised (even though they still understate the travel time passengers actually achieve) and by doing so, we quickly see that that metric has hovered between 4:20 and 4:37 hours in the last 12 years, which I believe to be very accurately described as "travel times of approximately 4 hours and 30 minutes":
Compiled from: official VIA Rail timetables
I was getting impatient waiting for the HFR report, so I decided to do my own armchair analysis.
The whole description ended up being pretty long so I just posted it on my blog here:
https://ontariotrafficman.wordpress.com/2020/08/17/mythbusting-vias-hfr-travel-time-claims/
but here's the summary:
These are the segments which appear to be upgradeable to 110 mph operation using curve widening and some relatively feasible realignments.
The biggest challenge is the 102 kilometres between Kaladar (east of Tweed) and Smiths Falls.
For the 87 kilometres from Kaladar to Glen Tay (just west of Perth), the line traverses rough rocky terrain dotted with lakes. As a result, the line follows a meandering path with frequent tight curves, with a radius of about 550 metres. This would only allow speeds around 80 km/h (50 mph) or so. Basically none of the existing ROW is useable for 110 mph operation since the curves are too close for the realigned route to rejoin the existing ROW before the next curve.
You are assuming that you need to upgrade the
entire route to be suitable for 110 mph, but an average speed of only 76.4 mph (i.e. 69% of the top speed of 110 mph) is needed to achieve a travel time of 3:15 hours over a distance of 400 km (which is of course challenging enough). Therefore, the key question for how to achieve 3:15 hours is not "how do we upgrade the 102 kilometers from Kaladar to Smiths Falls to 110 mph", but "how can we achieve an average speed of 76.4 mph over the total distance with the least capital costs possible".
Big circle is 1300m (approx radius for 110 mph), small circle is the existing radius: 570m
As I've shown in a previous post, in order to achieve 110 mph, the minimum radius would even be 1500, 1900 and 3000 meters for 10, 8 and 5 inches of superelevation, respectively.
For the 15 kilometres from Glen Tay to Smiths Falls, the route follows CP’s main line. Given that the whole point of the HFR project is to avoid interference from freight trains, this segment will need a new ROW, whether it be adjacent to the CP line, or along a completely different route.
Unless I missed something when measuring the curves in Google Earth, there is only a single track without any sidings between Smiths Falls and Glen Tay and thus on a ROW which historically had two tracks (and the missing track is conveniently the more Northern one). To illustrate, this is how the level crossing with one of Perth's main streets looks like:
Therefore, building an entirely new ROW between Smiths Falls and Glen Tay (or beyond) is only one of the available options.
Given these challenges it seems like it’s a question of all or nothing for the 102 kilometres between Kaladar and Smiths Falls. If the line is to be improved at all, an entirely new alignment is required. Given the terrain, the new railway would need to make extensive use of bridges and cuttings.
But the plus side of all that grading is that the net cost of fully grade-separating the line becomes relatively low, especially since there are hardly any crossing roads in the first place. A fully grade-separated railway could operate well above the 110 mph limit that would be imposed by level crossings. VIA’s new fleet can operate at up to 125 mph (200 km/h), and it would probably be prudent to use an even higher design speed to accommodate even faster trains in the future.
I'll just respond by quoting a reply I gave earlier this month:
The key thing your figures show is that once you leave existing right-of-ways, it doesn't really matter what your design speed is. If you look at the per-km cost of the Ecotrain study, building the Quebec-Montreal-Toronto Corridor for a design speed of 300 km/h only costs 12.2% more than for 200 km/h ($22.0 vs. $19.3 million per km) and once you substract the costs for electrification (the 200 km/h scenario was fuel-operated), the cost premium decreases to only 3.8% ($20.1 vs. $19.3 million per km):
Compiled from:
Ecotrain Study (2011, deliverable 6 - Part 1 of 2)
Note: originally posted in Post
#7,415
Therefore, leaving the existing/former ROW - except for where it is unavoidable - only makes sense if you can go to true HSR (150-200 mph / 240-320 km/h) and that means ploughing an entirely greenfield ROW through difficult and sensitive terrain if you stay anywhere close to the Havelock Subdivision east of its name-giving community...
The bottom line is: we know what building an alignment for speeds beyond 110 mph costs ($13-17 million per km, thus approximately $1.4-1.7 billion for your "new 102-kilometre high-speed railway from Kaladar to Smiths Falls" you propose further below) and we know that nobody is willing to pay the tab at the moment (or for at least as long as passenger intercity rail remains a niche mode). Therefore, I'm afraid that it's rather pointless to contemplate making extended greenfield alignments part of HFR...
To get an order-of-magnitude estimate for travel time, I assigned a speed for each segment and simply calculated the travel time at that speed. This provides the theoretical minimum travel time given those speed limits. It is not possible to achieve this travel time in the real world because it does not account for acceleration/deceleration, miscelaneous slowdowns (e.g. through switches), stops (stations, meeting trains in the opposite direction) or schedule padding.
The speed limits in the slower segments were roughly based on the radius of existing curves, except for the segments within Toronto and Ottawa, which are based on existing GO Transit and VIA Rail schedules, and within Peterborough where I assigned a 50 km/h (30 mph) limit due to the numerous awkward level crossings.
I examined three options, which include varying degrees of new alignments. The first scenario only upgrades the easiest segments. The second scenario also fills in the gaps around Havelock and around Tweed. And the third scenario adds in the big-ticket item: a new 102-kilometre high-speed railway from Kaladar to Smiths Falls.
The interesting thing here is that in either of the options without the new 102-km high speed line (HSL), it is physically impossible to achieve the 3:15 travel time that VIA
has been touting. Even if the trains had infinite acceleration, infinite deceleration, never stopped at stations, never slowed to switch tracks and never stopped in sidings to let trains pass in the opposite direction, those scenarios would still take longer than 3:15.
The HSL would cost several billion dollars on its own, so I don't get the impression that it's included in VIA's current concept.
But I'd love to be proven wrong.
Okay, let me try that (but remember: I'm only trying to show why we shouldn't dismiss the possibility that 3:15 hours
might be possible without
major realignments, without any intention of proving that it is in fact feasible), as I've been busy adjusting the model I had developed for my Master Thesis to apply it to the Havelock alignment!
(Post continues below)