Sure, drag me down a rabbit hole on a Saturday afternoon ;-)
Here's a rough attempt. I figure the diversion as being about 34.2 km long. Using the worst-case price scenario of $10M per km that's $342M to build. However - it replaces 33.8 km of the old right of way, which will probably cost VIA $5M per km to refurbish anyways. So the incremental cost, is closer to $175M, on a very rough guesstimate basis, assuming no major bridges or tunnels etc on either route.
For that amount, VIA avoids roughly 10 km of curved track that (by my inexpert gaze at the map) would probably require 80 km/hr restrictions. These zones are spaced such that trains would not be able to accelerate very much between zones before having to slow down again. I would predict a regulatory speed restriction of 50 km/hr through Sharbot Lake, given the line goes right through town. So speed throughout that zone would be restricted.
The route alongside Highway 7 is remarkably even terrain - at least on the map, Highway 7 has found an easier route through much of that territory, following the contours of the land and avoiding more swampland. And there could be far less curvature - it would be reasonable to assume higher speeds end to end, with much less need to accelerate and slow down for each curve.
On the back of an envelope, from pure speculation, one can predict a time savings of five minutes or more for that $175M. I wonder how that would fit in HFR's budget relative to other possible speed improvements.
- Paul
PS - Don't overlook the cost of moving the whole town. Sound farfetched? That's how the St Lawrence Seaway got build. See
here. It was doubtless heartbreaking for the residents along the old river, but 70+ years later I think most would agree it was the right thing to do, given the huge benefit that the Seaway has delivered. My guess is that Sharbot Lake could be relocated in total for half that amount. I wonder if the assessed value of every property in town exceeds $100M. I'm not arguing for that, I'm just pointing out - expropriation happens.
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