Allandale25
Senior Member
Might be a good opportunity to ask some HFR questions.
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VIA Rail
- Thread starter ehlow
- Start date
reaperexpress
Senior Member
I was getting impatient waiting for the HFR report, so I decided to do my own armchair analysis.
The whole description ended up being pretty long so I just posted it on my blog here: https://ontariotrafficman.wordpress.com/2020/08/17/mythbusting-vias-hfr-travel-time-claims/
but here's the summary:
These are the segments which appear to be upgradeable to 110 mph operation using curve widening and some relatively feasible realignments.
The biggest challenge is the 102 kilometres between Kaladar (east of Tweed) and Smiths Falls.
For the 87 kilometres from Kaladar to Glen Tay (just west of Perth), the line traverses rough rocky terrain dotted with lakes. As a result, the line follows a meandering path with frequent tight curves, with a radius of about 550 metres. This would only allow speeds around 80 km/h (50 mph) or so. Basically none of the existing ROW is useable for 110 mph operation since the curves are too close for the realigned route to rejoin the existing ROW before the next curve.
Big circle is 1300m (approx radius for 110 mph), small circle is the existing radius: 570m
For the 15 kilometres from Glen Tay to Smiths Falls, the route follows CP’s main line. Given that the whole point of the HFR project is to avoid interference from freight trains, this segment will need a new ROW, whether it be adjacent to the CP line, or along a completely different route.
Given these challenges it seems like it’s a question of all or nothing for the 102 kilometres between Kaladar and Smiths Falls. If the line is to be improved at all, an entirely new alignment is required. Given the terrain, the new railway would need to make extensive use of bridges and cuttings.
But the plus side of all that grading is that the net cost of fully grade-separating the line becomes relatively low, especially since there are hardly any crossing roads in the first place. A fully grade-separated railway could operate well above the 110 mph limit that would be imposed by level crossings. VIA’s new fleet can operate at up to 125 mph (200 km/h), and it would probably be prudent to use an even higher design speed to accommodate even faster trains in the future.
To get an order-of-magnitude estimate for travel time, I assigned a speed for each segment and simply calculated the travel time at that speed. This provides the theoretical minimum travel time given those speed limits. It is not possible to achieve this travel time in the real world because it does not account for acceleration/deceleration, miscelaneous slowdowns (e.g. through switches), stops (stations, meeting trains in the opposite direction) or schedule padding.
The speed limits in the slower segments were roughly based on the radius of existing curves, except for the segments within Toronto and Ottawa, which are based on existing GO Transit and VIA Rail schedules, and within Peterborough where I assigned a 50 km/h (30 mph) limit due to the numerous awkward level crossings.
I examined three options, which include varying degrees of new alignments. The first scenario only upgrades the easiest segments. The second scenario also fills in the gaps around Havelock and around Tweed. And the third scenario adds in the big-ticket item: a new 102-kilometre high-speed railway from Kaladar to Smiths Falls.
The interesting thing here is that in either of the options without the new 102-km high speed line (HSL), it is physically impossible to achieve the 3:15 travel time that VIA has been touting. Even if the trains had infinite acceleration, infinite deceleration, never stopped at stations, never slowed to switch tracks and never stopped in sidings to let trains pass in the opposite direction, those scenarios would still take longer than 3:15.
The HSL would cost several billion dollars on its own, so I don't get the impression that it's included in VIA's current concept. But I'd love to be proven wrong.
But on the flipside, if that line does get built, it may be possible to even beat the 3:15 estimate. Including the real-world factors, maybe the 2:47 theoretical minimum could plausibly correspond to a real-world scheduled time in the ballpark of 3:00-3:10.
Personaly I'd like to see the third option persued right off the bat, rather than reinstalling tracks along the crappy segment of the CP ROW and then abandoning them later. The project could be phased to first upgrade Toronto to Peterborough, and start a basic service on that segment to develop ridership and interest (a.k.a ribbon cuttings for politicians) while works continue on the HSL further east. That would be similar to how Brightline started its operation with service on the upgraded line from Miami to West Palm Beach, while work continues on the new 125 mph railway to Orlando.
The whole description ended up being pretty long so I just posted it on my blog here: https://ontariotrafficman.wordpress.com/2020/08/17/mythbusting-vias-hfr-travel-time-claims/
but here's the summary:
These are the segments which appear to be upgradeable to 110 mph operation using curve widening and some relatively feasible realignments.
The biggest challenge is the 102 kilometres between Kaladar (east of Tweed) and Smiths Falls.
For the 87 kilometres from Kaladar to Glen Tay (just west of Perth), the line traverses rough rocky terrain dotted with lakes. As a result, the line follows a meandering path with frequent tight curves, with a radius of about 550 metres. This would only allow speeds around 80 km/h (50 mph) or so. Basically none of the existing ROW is useable for 110 mph operation since the curves are too close for the realigned route to rejoin the existing ROW before the next curve.
Big circle is 1300m (approx radius for 110 mph), small circle is the existing radius: 570m
For the 15 kilometres from Glen Tay to Smiths Falls, the route follows CP’s main line. Given that the whole point of the HFR project is to avoid interference from freight trains, this segment will need a new ROW, whether it be adjacent to the CP line, or along a completely different route.
Given these challenges it seems like it’s a question of all or nothing for the 102 kilometres between Kaladar and Smiths Falls. If the line is to be improved at all, an entirely new alignment is required. Given the terrain, the new railway would need to make extensive use of bridges and cuttings.
But the plus side of all that grading is that the net cost of fully grade-separating the line becomes relatively low, especially since there are hardly any crossing roads in the first place. A fully grade-separated railway could operate well above the 110 mph limit that would be imposed by level crossings. VIA’s new fleet can operate at up to 125 mph (200 km/h), and it would probably be prudent to use an even higher design speed to accommodate even faster trains in the future.
To get an order-of-magnitude estimate for travel time, I assigned a speed for each segment and simply calculated the travel time at that speed. This provides the theoretical minimum travel time given those speed limits. It is not possible to achieve this travel time in the real world because it does not account for acceleration/deceleration, miscelaneous slowdowns (e.g. through switches), stops (stations, meeting trains in the opposite direction) or schedule padding.
The speed limits in the slower segments were roughly based on the radius of existing curves, except for the segments within Toronto and Ottawa, which are based on existing GO Transit and VIA Rail schedules, and within Peterborough where I assigned a 50 km/h (30 mph) limit due to the numerous awkward level crossings.
I examined three options, which include varying degrees of new alignments. The first scenario only upgrades the easiest segments. The second scenario also fills in the gaps around Havelock and around Tweed. And the third scenario adds in the big-ticket item: a new 102-kilometre high-speed railway from Kaladar to Smiths Falls.
The interesting thing here is that in either of the options without the new 102-km high speed line (HSL), it is physically impossible to achieve the 3:15 travel time that VIA has been touting. Even if the trains had infinite acceleration, infinite deceleration, never stopped at stations, never slowed to switch tracks and never stopped in sidings to let trains pass in the opposite direction, those scenarios would still take longer than 3:15.
The HSL would cost several billion dollars on its own, so I don't get the impression that it's included in VIA's current concept. But I'd love to be proven wrong.
But on the flipside, if that line does get built, it may be possible to even beat the 3:15 estimate. Including the real-world factors, maybe the 2:47 theoretical minimum could plausibly correspond to a real-world scheduled time in the ballpark of 3:00-3:10.
Personaly I'd like to see the third option persued right off the bat, rather than reinstalling tracks along the crappy segment of the CP ROW and then abandoning them later. The project could be phased to first upgrade Toronto to Peterborough, and start a basic service on that segment to develop ridership and interest (a.k.a ribbon cuttings for politicians) while works continue on the HSL further east. That would be similar to how Brightline started its operation with service on the upgraded line from Miami to West Palm Beach, while work continues on the new 125 mph railway to Orlando.
Allandale25
Senior Member
^ Re I'd like to see the third option pursued right off the bat, rather than reinstalling tracks along the crappy segment of the CP ROW and then abandoning them later.
Just for clarity, what is your third option and would it still use the Havelock Sub? Are you suggesting to online the line in segments, and then straight it out and build the Perth and Smiths Falls (and possibly more) bypasses?
Just for clarity, what is your third option and would it still use the Havelock Sub? Are you suggesting to online the line in segments, and then straight it out and build the Perth and Smiths Falls (and possibly more) bypasses?
Northern Light
Superstar
reaperexpress
Senior Member
It's the "All" option in the table, which generally uses the Havelock sub, except for the 102 km segment illustrated above, which is totally useless for 110 mph operation.
My concept for phasing would be :
1: Upgrade Smiths Falls - Fallowfield from 100 mph to 110, mostly for the sake of widening out the curve which currently forces trains to slow to 85 mph in the middle of an otherwise high-speed segment.
Existing speed limits (in mph):
2. Upgrade Toronto-Peterborough to 110 mph, and start a minimal service with a few tains per day, mostly for the sake of having "something to show" for politicians. This segment consists entirely of upgrading the existing line.
Existing ROW in black, upgraded segments in yellow:
3. Fill in the gap between Peterborough and Smiths Falls.
Existing ROW in black. Segments which upgrade this ROW are in yellow, and totally new segments are in red:
Again, this is a very very rough armchair glance without any kid of engineering study, so the particular alignment shown on the map is totally meaningless. The level of detail that can be gleaned from my amateur glance is merely that it is plausible to upgrade the line for the most part, except for the eastern 100 km of the Havelock sub, which is total garbage. I was actually pleasantly surprised by that result - I expected that much more of the line would be so squiggly that the existing ROW would be useless. It turns out that western half of the line has plenty of long straightaways which could be reused.
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crs1026
Superstar
^Great analysis.
I suspect the project will have done similar, in a much more granular mile by mile detail, same basic format but with collumns quantifying the cost of bringing each curved segment up to various higher speeds. That would enable some value for money prioritization, and provide a sense of where there is a diminishing return.
I also wonder if one could shave minutes out of other zones for low cost. One good example is the Ottawa-Fallowfield segment, which is ridiculously slow today.
I'm still beating the same old drum - if the project can afford as much new construction as you suggest - an alternative would be building northwest from Kingston to connect to the (abandoned) Napanee - Smiths Falls line? A shorter section of new construction through no more adverse terrain, with the same opportunity to build at 200 km/hr from the outset. If one took that cost out of the fixed envelope, what would the remainder be able to achieve along the Kingston line to add capacity and remove conflict with freight?
A new line between Kaladar(ish) and Perth might still have to be wrapped around lakes, swamps, and terrain to some degree. Perhaps more obstructions could be bridged or tunnelled through, but that would not be cheap. If any such line were built, it ought to be built to a very high standard....with an eye to HSR some day. I can understand refurb’ing an old line to kickstart HFR, but building a new line that would be made redundant by HSR seems wasteful.
- Paul
I suspect the project will have done similar, in a much more granular mile by mile detail, same basic format but with collumns quantifying the cost of bringing each curved segment up to various higher speeds. That would enable some value for money prioritization, and provide a sense of where there is a diminishing return.
I also wonder if one could shave minutes out of other zones for low cost. One good example is the Ottawa-Fallowfield segment, which is ridiculously slow today.
I'm still beating the same old drum - if the project can afford as much new construction as you suggest - an alternative would be building northwest from Kingston to connect to the (abandoned) Napanee - Smiths Falls line? A shorter section of new construction through no more adverse terrain, with the same opportunity to build at 200 km/hr from the outset. If one took that cost out of the fixed envelope, what would the remainder be able to achieve along the Kingston line to add capacity and remove conflict with freight?
A new line between Kaladar(ish) and Perth might still have to be wrapped around lakes, swamps, and terrain to some degree. Perhaps more obstructions could be bridged or tunnelled through, but that would not be cheap. If any such line were built, it ought to be built to a very high standard....with an eye to HSR some day. I can understand refurb’ing an old line to kickstart HFR, but building a new line that would be made redundant by HSR seems wasteful.
- Paul
crs1026
Superstar
For those who may not watch the railways day to day, and apropos to earlier discussion here about CP’s Winchester Subdivision and its potential use as a passenger corridor between Smiths Falls and Montreal.
At the moment, CP is in process of removing a good amount of double track from the line, in favour of a more modern single track CTC equipped line. This work program was long awaited and is no surprise.
Ray Kennedy has been updating the progress on his Old Time Trains website - see here.
The new configuration is high quality - 45mph turnouts and long (5-7 mile long) passing sidings, the kind that today’s extra-long freights require. With proper timing, trains can still pass each other without stopping. The line has loads of capacity for freight traffic.
The takeaway for passenger rail observers is - while the line may have looked underutilised and available for passenger trains, it is clearly central to CP’s plans for the future. No fire sale here.
- Paul
At the moment, CP is in process of removing a good amount of double track from the line, in favour of a more modern single track CTC equipped line. This work program was long awaited and is no surprise.
Ray Kennedy has been updating the progress on his Old Time Trains website - see here.
The new configuration is high quality - 45mph turnouts and long (5-7 mile long) passing sidings, the kind that today’s extra-long freights require. With proper timing, trains can still pass each other without stopping. The line has loads of capacity for freight traffic.
The takeaway for passenger rail observers is - while the line may have looked underutilised and available for passenger trains, it is clearly central to CP’s plans for the future. No fire sale here.
- Paul
reaperexpress
Senior Member
Indeed - speeding up slower areas does tend to have a better return in time savings per dollar. Though relative to my table, the only slow areas to be improved are within Ottawa, Peterborough, and Toronto.
The Ottawa segment definitely needs to be upgraded regardless of HFR, HSR or status-quo. The elephant in the room is the O-Train Trillium line which already crosses the VIA line at grade every 5 minutes on average. It would be quite a project to grade-separate this crossing given the other grade separations in the area.
The O-Train line goes under Heron Rd and Bronson St, but then over the transitway. Meanwhile the VIA line goes over Heron Rd and over Airport Pkwy. I suppose a saving grace is that Ottawa would probably be interested in replacing some of those single-track O-Train grade separations anyway to allow the line to be double-tracked.
In Peterborough the frequency of level crossings would pretty much necessitate a full railway regrade, whether it be elevated or in a tunnel (political suicide and gigantic money pit, respectively). But most trains would be stopping in Peterborough anyway and the total length of the messy segment isn't that significant, so upgrading it wouldn't have that much impact on travel times.
Within Toronto, my 60 km/h estimate is already pretty optimistic so I don't think there's much room for further improvement. It's based on the GO Kitchener express to Bramalea (30 km in 27 min), to Downsview Park (17 km in 19 min) and VIA to Brampton (36 km in 34 min). The Weston and Newmarket corridors are less speed-restricted than the Don Branch and North Toronto corridor would likely be.
Absolutely. That's why I noted that the line shouldn't just be built to 200 km/h, it should be built with a design speed as high as practical. A railway in the ballpark of 220-240 km/h would hold up as part of an HSR route, while the additional cost should hopefully still be justifiable despite the initial limitation of 200 km/h equipment.
I too have also been known to promote a more southerly alignment in the past, as part of a 300 km/h high speed rail option.
Abandoned ROWs in faded green, CP in red, VIA in yellow and CN in blue.
I suspect the cost of a 200+km/h Kingston - Smiths Falls railway would be similar to the 200+km/h Kaladar - Smiths Falls line. The terrain is certainly easier, but it's also a lot more populated which means more road/rail grade separations, more expensive land acquisition and more political opposition.
Whether the southern route makes sense overall then depends on the intended speed. If the goal is 300 km/h high speed rail, then certainly the southern alignment makes sense - it's a lot easier to build there and can consolidate more of VIA's service onto the new line. But if the goal is only 110 mph at-grade rail, the prospect of reusing large parts of the Havelock ROW makes that option cheap enough that it probably makes more sense financially. Even with the costs of somehow getting VIA trains along and across the CP main line in Toronto and the need to continue running some service along the current CN route.
kEiThZ
Superstar
@reaperexpress
Amazing analysis. Wow. And thank you.
I've been arguing for something like this kind of investment for a while. Spend that extra $1-2 billion. Getting Toronto-Ottawa to under 3 hrs, let's them get Toronto-Montreal to 4.5 hrs, which lets them get marginally competitive with air on Toronto-Ottawa and competitive with driving/bussing on every segment.
Amazing analysis. Wow. And thank you.
I've been arguing for something like this kind of investment for a while. Spend that extra $1-2 billion. Getting Toronto-Ottawa to under 3 hrs, let's them get Toronto-Montreal to 4.5 hrs, which lets them get marginally competitive with air on Toronto-Ottawa and competitive with driving/bussing on every segment.
White Pine
Active Member
Actually, I believe that these two lines are going to be grade separated as part of Stage 2 Trillium line.
Jon77
New Member
The trillium line is being grade separated right now.
reaperexpress
Senior Member
Oh you're right, I missed that when I was reading up on the project. In my defense it actually wasn't in the project overview.
So apparently what's happening is:
There's some pretty aggressive censorship in the online version of the project agreement. Pretty much all the drawings have been redacted. And look what else they did:
Hmm, I wonder who could be assuming control of their line that crosses the O-Train at Ellwood Diamond...
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crs1026
Superstar
This discussion about building a new route through the most problemmatic section of the old CP Havelock Sub is quite timely.
It was announced today that a business group in the Frontenac area are lobbying for VIA to build a bypass to the Sharbot Lake section of the old Havelock Sub. The issue is that the old CP line runs through the central section of that town, which sits on a very narrow peninsula. Residents have realised that restoring the rail line, and running hourly trains in each direction, will be hugely intrusive.
Here's a press report on the town's objection. They are proposing a roughly 18 km bypass around the town, roughly from Mountain Grove to Ungava, parallelling Highway 7.
Frankly, I'm surprised it took the town this long to object. A HFR line will really mess up this little hamlet. Having said that, it would probably be cheaper to buy out and move the entire downtown than build the proposed bypass. And curiously they seem to have no objection to four-laning Highway 7 through their town (albeit a touch to the north).
However, per @reaperexpress's work, if the proponents wanted to point out the minutes that would be saved by a bypass, it might just fly.... the bypass would eliminate one of the really tricky curvy portions of the line. Done right, it could be a very fast section.
Their submission is attached. EDIT: Use this link https://drive.google.com/file/d/15zoc1B45FuAfbNQQzDe6EHikNwRPFFS7/view?usp=sharing
- Paul
It was announced today that a business group in the Frontenac area are lobbying for VIA to build a bypass to the Sharbot Lake section of the old Havelock Sub. The issue is that the old CP line runs through the central section of that town, which sits on a very narrow peninsula. Residents have realised that restoring the rail line, and running hourly trains in each direction, will be hugely intrusive.
Here's a press report on the town's objection. They are proposing a roughly 18 km bypass around the town, roughly from Mountain Grove to Ungava, parallelling Highway 7.
Frankly, I'm surprised it took the town this long to object. A HFR line will really mess up this little hamlet. Having said that, it would probably be cheaper to buy out and move the entire downtown than build the proposed bypass. And curiously they seem to have no objection to four-laning Highway 7 through their town (albeit a touch to the north).
However, per @reaperexpress's work, if the proponents wanted to point out the minutes that would be saved by a bypass, it might just fly.... the bypass would eliminate one of the really tricky curvy portions of the line. Done right, it could be a very fast section.
Their submission is attached. EDIT: Use this link https://drive.google.com/file/d/15zoc1B45FuAfbNQQzDe6EHikNwRPFFS7/view?usp=sharing
- Paul
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Northern Light
Superstar
Ok, TY for that...............
Not just for the rail component either............it gave me an update on something I've been wondering about for ages!
The Algonquins of Ontario negotiated a Treaty settlement a few years ago.
One of the more interesting aspects of the treaty was the creation of a new, 30,000acre provincial park, south of Algonquin.
I had wondered whatever happened to that........
Well........from your article........
Recognizing their stewardship of Algonquin traditional territory, the Algonquins of Ontario,
represented locally by the Shabot Obaadjiwan First Nation, would also advocate for a
transportation link that would enhance their economic development while protecting
vulnerable ecological systems. At Crotch Lake, the AOO will soon be developing Whiteduck
Provincial Park. It will be the second largest Provincial Park in Eastern Ontario after Algonquin.
ShonTron
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A few trains are being reinstated in September, including:
Train 71 (Toronto-Windsor, 6:45 departure)
Train 78 (Windsor-Toronto, 21:51 arrival)
Which finally makes it possible to travel to parts of Western Ontario for a day trip without a car (with new connecting buses at Woodstock for Tillsonburg and at London for Strathroy and Sarna). Greyhound suspended its entire network, with only Coach Canada/Megabus, GO Transit, Ontario Northland and TOK (Can-Ar) running intercity coach service in the province.
A few more trips to and from Ottawa and Montreal as well. There's no PDF schedule yet, but you can start booking trips on the restored trains.
Train 71 (Toronto-Windsor, 6:45 departure)
Train 78 (Windsor-Toronto, 21:51 arrival)
Which finally makes it possible to travel to parts of Western Ontario for a day trip without a car (with new connecting buses at Woodstock for Tillsonburg and at London for Strathroy and Sarna). Greyhound suspended its entire network, with only Coach Canada/Megabus, GO Transit, Ontario Northland and TOK (Can-Ar) running intercity coach service in the province.
A few more trips to and from Ottawa and Montreal as well. There's no PDF schedule yet, but you can start booking trips on the restored trains.