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VIA Rail

Nope, it was strictly off the top of my head. The point was to see if I could break the number down from the global $2B with some proportionality, and see if the resulting numbers had any merit on their face.

My line construction cost of roughly $3M per mile came from - Union Pacific spent $327M US to add 108 miles of third track to their line from North Platte, NE to Gibbon, NE. That's flat non-rocky farmland. That would be an all-in cost with signals etc. That installation has an impressive CTC system, many and very high grade turnouts, heavy rail with concrete ties, very substantial grading, etc. so comparable to what CN would expect to vacate its existing line. That number would likely have grown somewhat with inflation as it's about 10 years old.

I figured $15M for each grade separation, a number I have seen thrown around before.

I suppose the other way to build it up would be.....if you had to build the co-production and the freight bypass first, how much of the $2B would that eat up? How much does that leave you for improvements to the remaining line? And how would you spend that remainder, however much that is? Would that give you a jump-start in ridership that would generate a cash flow for further improvements to finish the job?

Edit - re the British resignalling project cost - those lines have very unique and complex junctions, the likes of which won't be found on a VIA project. The crossovers on the Kingston Sub are simpler and are basically a template. The 3-to-2 interlockings are a template also. Even the UPX junctions at Airway, Humberview, and Nickle, while more complex, are constructed from a single template. Whereas on the Great Western, there are multi track junctions and no two are alike. I would expect the cost of the interlocking design, and the construction of the junctions, would be much higher.

- Paul
 
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FYI, Ottawa's my hometown.

The new Ottawa LRT directly stops at the Ottawa train station. Station design. It's only about a 50 meter walk, with complete rain cover.

Yup. It's about the same distance between Union VIA and Union Subway stations as it is between Ottawa Train and Tremblay LRT stations. In terms of station stops, it's the same number to get to Downtown Ottawa (Parliament Station) as it is to get to Wellesley Station. I don't think anybody wouldn't consider Wellesley not in downtown Toronto (it's not the CBD, but it's most definitely downtown).
 
$4 billion for hundreds of kilometres of new tracks, electrified?! And Crosstown is $8 billion? Are these figures correct? I would have thought new tracks over that span with catenary would be in the tens of billions. If $4 bil is right, I'll echo what others have said and say yeah - that's a steal, do it!!

You are forgetting that the Eglinton LRT has an underground section. People in Toronto and Ontario need to remember: tunneling is very, very, prohibitively, expensive!

Eglinton LRT is also expensive because of all the transfer points, especially Yonge/Spadina subway connections underground.

The eglinton LRT would be about $2 billion if above ground. $6 billion is just for being partially underground.

However any LRT system has a myriad of expenses like stations, rolling stock, yard storage, moving utilities and roads. etc.

The $4 billion for Via Rail electrification is probably the cost of strictly putting up electric wires. They don't have to tunnel, they dont have to build stations, but they also probably aren't factoring in rolling stock etc.
 
The gas plants were always to add redundancy and extra capacity to the system for worst days. Most days would lose. This was all about strengthening the network after the 2003 Blackout - not building base capacity. Hydro was quite open about that in 2004 or so. Perhaps everyone has forgotten ...

The gas plants were a mess - especially the Oakville and Mississauga fights. Oakville was sunk by NIMBYs and a provincial government afraid of losing two or three seats in the next election. On the other hand, the Mississauga site was awful; work should never had started there.

But the advantage of gas generatation is that it's one of the easiest to start-up and stop, so it's better for peak periods than nuclear, hydro or wind. When there's no need for the power generated by gas plants, they're off. The power need not be sold at a loss.
 
Good point. Not sure why they'd be selling at a loss then.

A couple of locations were problematic, but I wouldn't call the entire gas plant thing a mess. How many plants were built across Ontario? There's been little outcry about most of the stations (Brampton, Milton, Toronto, Napanee, Sarnia, York, etc.).
 
Good point. Not sure why they'd be selling at a loss then.

Because the contracts with the builders/operators included guarantees to purchase. On top of the guaranteed purchase clauses in wind power producers' contracts. Because in low demand periods (nights, weekends) the overall Ontario demand falls below the base non-maneuverable production from existing Hydro and Nuclear plants.

Ontario actually pays neighbouring jurisdictions to take our power (ie it's not just free, the price is negative) in quiet periods.

If we electrify railroads, at least we are using the power we are buying, instead of paying other jurisdictions to take it from us after we have paid for it. That's a net savings.

- Paul
 
Ontario actually pays neighbouring jurisdictions to take our power (ie it's not just free, the price is negative) in quiet periods.
Some notes:
- Apparently, it's not as happening as much as it did in year 2013
- Part of that is from grid inefficiencies, and lack of peaker power capacity, etc.

If the gas plants had been built, and extra transmission had been built, the peaker capacity would have prevented needing to throttle up nuclear or other power that''s harder to scale back quickly. The inflexible grid (lack of peaker capacity, lack of transmission capacity) forces paying others to take power. The rapid construction of wind and solar, has made Ontario #2 (after California) in the migration to clean power.

In the rush to clean power, we did have good benefits:
- Coal power generation (Nanticoke) was shut down, and also 1 year ahead of schedule
- New Pickering nuclear plants were cancelled
- There is almost no smog advisories in GTHA anymore, thanks in huge part to coal plants now completely idle.

But also big problems
- Higher electric bills, also affecting manufacturing
- Haphazard way of rushing to clean power leads to some issues, as seen at the wind critic site at www.windontario.ca
- New grid inefficiencies that needs to be compensated by, with new transmission infrastructure to prevent needing to pay to take power / not generate power

There are the good and bad sides...
 
What's the big deal with Nuclear? It's arguably the cleanest and most plentiful energy source humans have. So called 'green' energy is inefficient.

We also don't have to contend with cataclysmic earthquakes and tsunamis.
 
What's the big deal with Nuclear? It's arguably the cleanest and most plentiful energy source humans have. So called 'green' energy is inefficient.

We also don't have to contend with cataclysmic earthquakes and tsunamis.

I won't digress into a pro-/con- nuclear debate, but in the context of what we were discussing - the issue with nuclear is simply that nuclear reactors can't easily be throttled to match demand. They either run at full power, or you shut them off, and it takes a couple days or more to restart one once shut down. So long as there is base demand, there's no issue, they can run for a year or more at full power....but....when you factor in hydro (there are limits to how much water can be held back), plus the wind and gas purchase guarantees....supply can exceed demand.

When the Darlington refurb begins, having these units off line may make this moot for the next few years, but it has been costly for Ontario over the past few years.

As to cataclysmic events - we don't have tidal waves, but there are lots of low-probability events (like extreme cold weather spells and ice storms) that can still happen around here. I know the nukes put a lot of effort into anticipating these and ensuring the designs are robust. You can never say "never".

- Paul
 
I won't digress into a pro-/con- nuclear debate, but in the context of what we were discussing - the issue with nuclear is simply that nuclear reactors can't easily be throttled to match demand. They either run at full power, or you shut them off, and it takes a couple days or more to restart one once shut down.

Kinda, but not really. Nuclear plants in Canada today have the same issue as old coal plants did; their thermal load (used for running the generators) takes hours to heat-up and a hours to cool-down. The multi-day gap we have in Canada is due to a shutdown triggering a federal inspection process; this process wouldn't be necessary if load following was part of the design.

Many of the techniques used to make load-following coal plants can and have been applied to nuclear. Both Germany and France run modern designs in load-following mode; of course they don't use a CANDU design and load-following infrastructure (regardless of fuel source) is always more expensive per unit output simply due to being available 24/7 but not always generating revenue.
 
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Fair point, I don't have a clue what electrification costs. VIA would need a greater number of substations (assuming there is a limit to how far apart you space them). Lower electrical throughput, though, so maybe smaller simpler installations. (Windmills on site would be a nice touch) Structures to span several tracks in GO territory won't be needed, they must also be costly on a per mile basis.

While they are not green, those British diesel HST's do just fine over there - maybe that's all that's needed until the improved revenue stream kicks in to fund the full build.

- Paul
As far as diesel vs electric, the cutoff is usually around 125mph before electric becomes the predominant mode. In the US that speed also doubles as the break between Tier 1 (standard FRA vehicles) and Tier 2 (just Acela at present).

For substations, I believe there's a rule of thumb along the lines of 1 mile per kV. The study for the California High Speed Rail posited 30 mile spacing of traction transformers in a 2x25kV autotransformer configuration (which GO will use). However, there are also smaller additional facilities required (paralleling and switching substations) so it's not quite as simple as the rule of thumb suggests. (See: "TRACTION POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM FOR CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED TRAIN PROJECT", Parsons Brinkerhoff)

One thing to bear in mind is not just electrical clearance of structures from 25kV current but also electromagnetic interference with signals and other trackside equipment. Where a line is not new but runs on/beside existing running track, testing and remediating electrical and e-m interference is probably going to be painstaking and expensive.
 
A very interesting read. It would seem like they already are looking to make friends with our long time "ally" Bombardier and also sumitomo for hundreds of bilevels. It would be interesting to see that actually happen. Also it looks like they are already leaning towards the Siemens charger for their next locomotive for push pull operations. Then again if I had it myway I woukd prefer bidirectional electric trainsets. Hopefully they will have the insight to provision for that. one thing that might be a little concerning is the fact that they don't want hsr rather they are looking for high-frequency instead. I'm not sure its just partisan games but it may lead to a prolonged battle between them and the govt of funding.
 
I'm still on the fence between 'keep it practical and affordable' versus 'go bigger or go home'. It seems like some of their ideas are predicated on the miserly mentality of the last government. The purse strings may be a tad looser now, and a moderately pricier solution that moves closer to a higher speed system might be sellable - so why sell the idea short by proposing such a low speed, low value minimal change system.

This was the first time I had seen details of the new VIA corridor proposal, which is claimed to be pursuing a new alignment down the old Havelock Sub from Glen Tay to Durham. That idea is as dumb as a box of rocks, IMHO. It ignores all the population centers along Lake Ontario, bypasses Kingston altogether, and the Havelock Sub alignment is curvy, swampy, and (alternatively) hard rock so not really "rebuildable" - we are really talking about engineering a new line here.

I liked the idea of the Gananoque cutoff. Asking the freight railways to accept a coproduction zone between Shannonville and Durham seems very reasonable. I would cling to building a new line next to the CN line from Shannonville to Gananoque. The idea that these chunks could be built incrementally, with diesels, is really attractive.

I disregarded all of the discussion about specific builders and models. Rail advocacy falls too often to rail enthusiasts, who can't help letting their love of particular engines and cars creep into the discussion. This is not the most important detail in selling the system, and it's too soon to limit the field of vendors. My one personal prejudice - while the Superliners are efficient, they are not great for sightseeing. The older Budd domes are the better customer experience. VIA should be exploring how to retain that aspect of long distance travel....up to and including how to manufacture new single level dome cars as the old ones can't run forever. The long distance trains need to be a rider experience and not just an efficient train. Until the retiring boomers reach the wheelchair stage, this demographic is a cash-rich target market and high fares will still sell if the train is worth the ride.

- Paul
 

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