TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[Dan416]

Have we finished beating this dead horse yet? The Sheppard subway is not being converted to LRT now or ever. The amazing stupidity of the idea boggles the mind, and what boggles the mind even more is that anyone with half a brain would even flirt with the idea.

Pay money. Less capacity. Yes that makes SENSE.

 

[sixrings]

Have we finished beating this dead horse yet? The Sheppard subway is not being converted to LRT now or ever. The amazing stupidity of the idea boggles the mind, and what boggles the mind even more is that anyone with half a brain would even flirt with the idea.

Pay money. Less capacity. Yes that makes SENSE.

you cant simply get over the 670 million but wasting 10 million on steve chungs report and 65 million to cancel tc makes sense to you?

you would rather...

pay significantly more money, have too much capacity. yes that makes NONsense.

 

[sixrings]

My estimate for the cost of all-LRT solution is somewhat higher.

Let's not forget that Sheppard West from Yonge to the West Don bridge is too narrow for surface LRT. The tunneled section would have to be extended by 1 - 1.5 km even for LRT technology, and a separate bridge might be needed. That adds at least $300 million to the cost of LRT.

Then, the distance from the West Don Bridge to Downsview is about 2.5 km, LRT could be on surface there, and the cost is approx. 75 x 2.5 = $185 million. Plus, the terminus ($25 million?)

The Metrolinx estimate for converting the existing section was $670 million (not $600).

Add $1.1 billion for the section east of Don Mills, and we arrive to about $2.3 billion for LRT that reaches Downsview.

It will be quite difficult to sell an LRT project with that price tag to the public or the local councillors, especially when the first phase (subway-to-LRT conversion) causes a lot of hassle and does not, by itself, produce any transit benefits. Incremental subway extension seems to be more realistic (although Sheppard subway should not be given priority to the detriment of more beneficial projects in other parts of the city).

either way it is cheaper. also we havent talked about going west of downsview to weston. that would never happen because of costs under a subway plan but could under s lrt plan. also the lrt vs subway connection to stc. the lrt could go past midland and turn south at brimley adding a few more stations. sheppard subway could do this as well but the cost is prohibitive (added stations extra track) which is why the subway route goes south at kennedy and straight to stc.

 

[Rainforest]

Most likely outcome in the near future:
- Conversion will not happen, nor will Sheppard East LRT.
- TTC will find funding to extend the subway to Vic Park, according to the Stinz plan or in some other way. That will slightly improve the commutes by bypassing the 404 gridlock.
- And after that, the Sheppard corridor will fall out of sights and nothing else will be added in the next 15 - 20 years (at best, BRT lite might be built east of Vic Park).

 

[Rainforest]

either way it is cheaper. also we havent talked about going west of downsview to weston. that would never happen because of costs under a subway plan but could under s lrt plan. also the lrt vs subway connection to stc. the lrt could go past midland and turn south at brimley adding a few more stations. sheppard subway could do this as well but the cost is prohibitive (added stations extra track) which is why the subway route goes south at kennedy and straight to stc.

Extension to Weston (6 km from Downsview) is additional $450 million or so, so the total for LRT would be not far from $3 billion.

I'd rather have subway from Downsview to Agincourt GO, and bus service west of Downsview. IMO, there is no absolute need to bring the subway to STC. Rather, we should consider a new hub at Agincourt, with subway terminus and more frequent GO service. From there, we could have an LRT line that goes a short distance along Sheppard, turns south on Midland or Brimley, then joins the SRT guideway and shares tracks with SRT to reach Scarborough Centre, and then split off and continues along Ellesmere to the Scrborough hospital and UTSC.

Anyway, all those plans are hypothetical at this point. There is no money for subway from Downsview to Agincourt, and there is no money for LRT from Downsview to Morningside.

 

[sixrings]

Extension to Weston (6 km from Downsview) is additional $450 million or so, so the total for LRT would be not far from $3 billion.

I'd rather have subway from Downsview to Agincourt GO, and bus service west of Downsview. IMO, there is no absolute need to bring the subway to STC. Rather, we should consider a new hub at Agincourt, with subway terminus and more frequent GO service. From there, we could have an LRT line that goes a short distance along Sheppard, turns south on Midland or Brimley, then joins the SRT guideway and shares tracks with SRT to reach Scarborough Centre, and then split off and continues along Ellesmere to the Scrborough hospital and UTSC.

Anyway, all those plans are hypothetical at this point. There is no money for subway from Downsview to Agincourt, and there is no money for LRT from Downsview to Morningside.

but you cant disagree once you go lrt it will always be cheaper to extend it. with subway everytime you want to extend it you really have to contemplate if its a good use of funds. some people will say it is worth it others will say it isnt. as a result its difficult to get even extensions built. lrt has the benefit of being cheap enough that no one will throw a hissy fit if we want to make it longer.

 

[nfitz]

Let's not forget that Sheppard West from Yonge to the West Don bridge is too narrow for surface LRT.

Says who? It's a 36-metre road allowance isn't it? The tail tracks already most of the way to Senlac, so that's the most sensitive section covered already. It's only about 600 metres from the end of the tail tracks to where you'd put a portal west of Easton.

The tunneled section would have to be extended by 1 - 1.5 km even for LRT technology

That makes no sense. That would put the portal west of the West Don. Your forgetting those very lengthy tail tracks.

 

[nfitz]

The amazing stupidity of the idea boggles the mind, and what boggles the mind even more is that anyone with half a brain would even flirt with the idea.

An odd comment, as only someone with no brain would suggest spending $1 billion to extend it 2,000 metres.

 

[11th]

Most likely outcome in the near future:
- Conversion will not happen, nor will Sheppard East LRT.
- TTC will find funding to extend the subway to Vic Park, according to the Stinz plan or in some other way. That will slightly improve the commutes by bypassing the 404 gridlock.
- And after that, the Sheppard corridor will fall out of sights and nothing else will be added in the next 15 - 20 years (at best, BRT lite might be built east of Vic Park).

Find it interesting how it goes from
1) let's build LRT, and if the ridership increases to one point, we'll convert it to subway
to
2) let's not convert it to subway at all when the ridership numbers reach the level, but build more LRT lines on parallel routes
to
3) let's convert the subway to LRT since we'll just be building LRTs anyways.

Since when do people stopped planning for extension of our grade-seperated transit network (I'm not using the term 'subway')? Or is it just a portion of transit enthusiasts who thinks this way? and why isn't the TTC taking the viva rapidway approach - ROW BRT initially?

 

[gweed123]

and why isn't the TTC taking the viva rapidway approach - ROW BRT initially?

This is the logical approach in my opinion. Build the corridor for buses, and get the increased speed and reliability now. That way, down the road if you want to upgrade to LRT, it will be mainly for increased capacity, as the increased speed was already covered with the BRT (if stop spacings are equal, LRT is no faster than BRT). The rationale for conversion from BRT to LRT is so much simpler ("we need more capacity") than the rationale to build the ROW in the first place.

 

[noctis]

If Ford really want subways, then here's a solution that might be able to work. Referring to Eglinton again:

1. Starting at Eglinton/Yonge Station, go west and extend it to the airport.
- 19.2 km (est.) @ $250 mil ~ $300 mil/km = ~ $5.76 bil
- Construction starts 2014 to be completed by 2024 (est.)

2. With money left over (since the original LRT plan for Eglinton was ~ $8.2 bil), extend the Sheppard line from Don Mills Station to STC.
- 8.9 km (est.) @ $250 mil ~ $300 mil/km = ~ $2.7 bil
- Construction starts 2013 to be completed by 2018 (est.)

3. If there's still money left (which it may be not be the case here), it can be spent on Finch West expansion (to Humber College), DRL, Finch North expansion (to Richmond Hill).

Note: All figures above are estimated (source: http://lrt.daxack.ca/LRTvsHRT/CostCompare.html)

 

[uptownto]

With regards to LRT conversion of Sheppard. Given that Eglinton is now planned to replace the RT, there really isn't much justification for any extension of the Sheppard line eastbound, at least along the Sheppard Corridor so I don't see much value in a conversion. I'll take the Vic Park extension because the Don Mills to Vic Park section of Sheppard is brutally gridlocked because of the employment cluster at Consumers, the DVP/404 ramps, and Fairview, but that's about it. Well, I'd take that over an undergrounding of Eglinton east of Laird anyway.

If Sheppard were to be extended eastbound, I think a better idea would be to tunnel northeast from Vic Park, connect Warden/Finch (perhaps pick up Finch bus people there), and have York Region or Metrolinx plan to take it to another TOD in Markham.

Any extensions of LRT into the further reaches of Scarborough should begin from where the RT currently ends IMO.

 

[nfitz]

If Ford really want subways, then here's a solution that might be able to work. Referring to Eglinton again:

1. Starting at Eglinton/Yonge Station, go west and extend it to the airport.
- 19.2 km (est.) @ $250 mil ~ $300 mil/km = ~ $5.76 bil
- Construction starts 2014 to be completed by 2024 (est.)

2. With money left over (since the original LRT plan for Eglinton was ~ $8.2 bil), extend the Sheppard line from Don Mills Station to STC.
- 8.9 km (est.) @ $250 mil ~ $300 mil/km = ~ $2.7 bil
- Construction starts 2013 to be completed by 2018 (est.)

Your numbers don't work. Stintz is estimating that it will cost $500 mil/km to extend Sheppard 2 km to Victoria Park station. Yet by your numbers there's 6.9 km to go after for $1.7 billion at only $245 million/km?

Also there's nothing in your $ to upgrade or do anything to the SRT. What do we do when it reaches the end of it's life around 2018 or so ... simply tell people to walk? It's not like those currently using it would find the Sheppard subway to North York useful.

 

[Rainforest]

Says who? It's a 36-metre road allowance isn't it? The tail tracks already most of the way to Senlac, so that's the most sensitive section covered already. It's only about 600 metres from the end of the tail tracks to where you'd put a portal west of Easton.

A) I've been there.

B) There exists an objective measure: look at map.toronto.ca and include property lines.

My measurements: <distance between building walls> : <distance between property lines>

West of Welbeck: 37m : 22m
East of Senlac: 29m : 23m
West of Senlac: 37m : 23m
East of Easton: 34m : 23m

The distances between property lines are a far cry from 36 m, and even if all front yards are taken, the 36-m layout does not fit at least in one place.

That makes no sense. That would put the portal west of the West Don. Your forgetting those very lengthy tail tracks.

According to the above portal, Senlac is 970 m west of Yonge. I hardly can believe that tail tracks are 970 m long, given that today's Sheppard trains are 100 m long and the platforms are designed for 150 m trains at most. The tail tracks may be 400 or 500 m long, that's still more than 1 km from the West Don bridge (located 1,600 m west of Yonge).

Note that my cost calculations included a relatively modest number of $300 million for that 1+ km tunnel plus the separate LRT bridge if needed. The actual cost might get even higher.

 

[Rainforest]

but you cant disagree once you go lrt it will always be cheaper to extend it. with subway everytime you want to extend it you really have to contemplate if its a good use of funds. some people will say it is worth it others will say it isnt. as a result its difficult to get even extensions built. lrt has the benefit of being cheap enough that no one will throw a hissy fit if we want to make it longer.

This argument would make perfect sense if there was no existing subway on Sheppard. But with that chunk in place, it appears that extending subway is politically easier than adding LRT to the mix. The recent history is a good illustration to that.