TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[Asterix]

To be honest, I live at yonge and steeles, and because I have to transfer at sheppard to get across to downsview, I just drive. I imagine a lot of people have this mentality as well.

And extending the existing Sheppard subway line west to Downsview would change your required transfer how?

 

[sixrings]

to be fair i dont know how many people know about the 196 bus when they are at yonge street. The only reason I know of it is because I use transit everyday but I would think it isnt common knowledge... However if there was a map on the SubwAY SYSTEM SHOWING THe subway only stopping at bathurst then downsview all most everyone would know about it... I am not suggesting the numbers of users would explode but surely more people would know about it and therefore more people would use it...

 

[Asterix]

to be fair i dont know how many people know about the 196 bus when they are at yonge street. The only reason I know of it is because I use transit everyday but I would think it isnt common knowledge... However if there was a map on the SubwAY SYSTEM SHOWING THe subway only stopping at bathurst then downsview all most everyone would know about it... I am not suggesting the numbers of users would explode but surely more people would know about it and therefore more people would use it...

Fair enough. So let's take current peak frequency of every 5 - 6 minutes with half-full buses. We'll be generous and say that's 12/hour with 30/bus, giving us 360 riders per hour.

What would be your guess as to how many riders there are out there that don't know about the 196 but might be inclined to take it if only it somehow were to hit them over the head with its existence?

Added with the almost 400/hour currently riding, what would be the resulting total for this subway extension and how does that compare with any of the other routes competing for subway expansion?

 

[BMO]

And extending the existing Sheppard subway line west to Downsview would change your required transfer how?

I'm not going to transfer to a slow bus from a subway to get back on the subway for two more stops. I would, however transfer to another subway line.

edit: and why do you always answer questions with another question?

 

[uptownto]

Using existing bus routes as a barometer for subway demand is flawed, but something I see on these forums all the time. If I was a York U student living around Warden or Kennedy today, I would not consider taking a Sheppard bus to Don Mills, transfer to subway, then take another (brutal) transfer at Yonge to get back to the bus bay to take the express bus to school. I would just drive (unless I was poor, in which case I am not a 'choice' rider). Even when the Spadina line completes, that would not make me change my mind.

If I had a Sheppard subway I could take from Scarborough that required only one transfer at Downsview to get to York, that is a *different* story.

I think the Sheppard west extension particularly has a lot of merit. I'm sure something like 95% of people who get off at Yonge/Sheppard station from the Sheppard line just transfer to the southbound Yonge line (helping to overcrowd it), even if their final destination is St. George (UofT), or St. Patrick station (hospitals). If the subway would continue on to Downsview, I'm sure many of these riders would prefer that and transfer there.

 

[BMO]

Using existing bus routes as a barometer for subway demand is flawed, but something I see on these forums all the time. If I was a York U student living around Warden or Kennedy today, I would not consider taking a Sheppard bus to Don Mills, transfer to subway, then take another (brutal) transfer at Yonge to get back to the bus bay to take the express bus to school. I would just drive (unless I was poor, in which case I am not a 'choice' rider). Even when the Spadina line completes, that would not make me change my mind.

If I had a Sheppard subway I could take from Scarborough that required only one transfer at Downsview to get to York, that is a *different* story.

I think the Sheppard west extension particularly has a lot of merit. I'm sure something like 95% of people who get off at Yonge/Sheppard station from the Sheppard line just transfer to the southbound Yonge line (helping to overcrowd it), even if their final destination is St. George (UofT), or St. Patrick station (hospitals). If the subway would continue on to Downsview, I'm sure many of these riders would prefer that and transfer there.

exactly, if anything to avoid the congestion on the yonge line, and to avoid having to deal with the crazy bloor-yonge interchange for transferring to the bloor line just to get to the university line.

 

[JoeParez]

exactly, if anything to avoid the congestion on the yonge line, and to avoid having to deal with the crazy bloor-yonge interchange for transferring to the bloor line just to get to the university line.

Exactly.

I live in Vaughan and just for an example if I wanted go and visit my mom at work (Bayview and Cummer) and I wanted to take transit; I could park at Downsview; take the Sheppard Subway to Bayview and take the bus to Cummer. Instead of parking at Wilson, going down to St. George, transferring, going to Yonge, transferring, going to Sheppard, transferring, then going to Bayview. (I know I could take the bus from Downsview but I wanted to use a subway trip as an example).

 

[sixrings]

I cant help but think developers would go NUTS at the bathurst and sheppard location. That area could demand some significant coin out of new condos. Its a much better location then Vic Park and Sheppard..

 

[Asterix]

If I had a Sheppard subway I could take from Scarborough that required only one transfer at Downsview to get to York, that is a *different* story.

Ok, so you don't want to use any existing usages to justify subway, so what ridership numbers do you think there are like you who would take a Sheppard subway enroute to York if only it existed?

(I thought the current discussion was only for the Sheppard west extension, but why not make it for the combined eastern one as well.)

Are there that many York students coming from Scarborough not currently taking the 196 or other Scarberians wanting to go downtown but willing to overshoot to the west to get on at Downsview instead of Yonge?

For any numbers suggested, is there any actual models or studies or whatever to support them beyond saying 'I'm sure many would prefer to go over to Downsview to avoid the congestion on Yonge'?

Without demonstrating that there really is the demand to justify the huge expense of this kind of subway construction, is this method of planning really any different than deciding other major city policies on the basis of a couple dozen taxpayers who called Rob's cell phone?

 

[BMO]

Ok, so you don't want to use any existing usages to justify subway, so what ridership numbers do you think there are like you who would take a Sheppard subway enroute to York if only it existed?

(I thought the current discussion was only for the Sheppard west extension, but why not make it for the combined eastern one as well.)

Are there that many York students coming from Scarborough not currently taking the 196 or other Scarberians wanting to go downtown but willing to overshoot to the west to get on at Downsview instead of Yonge?

For any numbers suggested, is there any actual models or studies or whatever to support them beyond saying 'I'm sure many would prefer to go over to Downsview to avoid the congestion on Yonge'?

Without demonstrating that there really is the demand to justify the huge expense of this kind of subway construction, is this method of planning really any different than deciding other major city policies on the basis of a couple dozen taxpayers who called Rob's cell phone?

Considering Sheppard West in particular is one of the best examples of the city's avenuization initiative, what would you propose for this stretch of the route?

Should we retain the status quo and leave the sheppard subway just to shuttle people from fairview mall to yonge and leave a quite important missing connection between the two lines empty?

 

[Asterix]

Considering Sheppard West in particular is one of the best examples of the city's avenuization initiative, what would you propose for this stretch of the route?

Should we retain the status quo and leave the sheppard subway just to shuttle people from fairview mall to yonge and leave a quite important missing connection between the two lines empty?

At this point yes - there are far more pressing demands for major transit infrastructure (eg DRL) and I've yet to see a substantive ridership projection that would remotely justify a subway along that stretch.

With respect to the argument that people could travel on to Downsview to escape Yonge congestion, keep in mind that with the extension to Vaughan, it's not like the University-Spadina side will be crowd-free by the time enough council food has been cancelled to pay for any Sheppard extension.

 

[BMO]

With respect to the argument that people could travel on to Downsview to escape Yonge congestion, keep in mind that with the extension to Vaughan, it's not like the University-Spadina side will be crowd-free by the time enough council food has been cancelled to pay for any Sheppard extension.

This is why I believe it's important to create redundancies in the system so that if either line goes down, people can have a work around to the problem whether is be jogging over on sheppard to spadina to avoid a problem on Yonge, or vice-versa. Eglinton will help with this as well.

 

[uptownto]

A good benchmark for the utility of such a Sheppard extension would be the 196 York Express bus whose B branch runs from Yonge & Sheppard, stopping once at Bathurst and then at Downsview.

You basically provided a terrible travel option when there are better options available (car) and wonder why it is so poorly utilized and then assumed the same would be the case with a subway. That, and any numbers/stats can be made to suit whatever agenda you are trying to push. For example, with the vaunted DRL that you claim has higher priority (and I don't disagree), I could say factually that the 501 Queen streetcar which travels basically the whole length of Toronto attracts LESS passengers per day than the 4KM Sheppard Line. Therefore, a DRL alignment along Queen should not take priority over a Sheppard extension, because the 501 is clearly inferior.

Building network redundancy into the system is invaluable. It increases capacity by distributing flow, relieves other station bottlenecks, limits inconvenience of station outages, gives access to railyards, and since we have some of Sheppard already built why not make it even more attractive to ride by extending it west. We get that at about $1.3B. Where else on the system could you spend $1.3B and get all that?

 

[gweed123]

You basically provided a terrible travel option when there are better options available (car) and wonder why it is so poorly utilized and then assumed the same would be the case with a subway. That, and any numbers/stats can be made to suit whatever agenda you are trying to push. For example, with the vaunted DRL that you claim has higher priority (and I don't disagree), I could say factually that the 501 Queen streetcar which travels basically the whole length of Toronto attracts LESS passengers per day than the 4KM Sheppard Line. Therefore, a DRL alignment along Queen should not take priority over a Sheppard extension, because the 501 is clearly inferior.

Building network redundancy into the system is invaluable. It increases capacity by distributing flow, relieves other station bottlenecks, limits inconvenience of station outages, gives access to railyards, and since we have some of Sheppard already built why not make it even more attractive to ride by extending it west. We get that at about $1.3B. Where else on the system could you spend $1.3B and get all that?

Actually, the Queen Streetcars (more routes than just the 501) carry more people per day than the Sheppard Subway does. So does the King Streetcar I believe.

 

[Asterix]

You basically provided a terrible travel option when there are better options available (car) and wonder why it is so poorly utilized and then assumed the same would be the case with a subway.

How is an express bus over 4km a 'terrible travel option'? It's running time from Yonge to Downsview is about 10 minutes, not significantly more than a subway over the same stretch would be.

That, and any numbers/stats can be made to suit whatever agenda you are trying to push. For example, with the vaunted DRL that you claim has higher priority (and I don't disagree), I could say factually that the 501 Queen streetcar which travels basically the whole length of Toronto attracts LESS passengers per day than the 4KM Sheppard Line. Therefore, a DRL alignment along Queen should not take priority over a Sheppard extension, because the 501 is clearly inferior.

The Sheppard extension would be built to cover a segment of the 196. The DRL would be built not to simply replace or duplicate the 501, but rather to intercept westbound traffic from the Danforth line and all the other major cross streets on down to Queen (and maybe even up to Eglinton if it would go that far).

Its purpose would not primarily be to service those along Queen from about Pape or Greenwood on to downtown, but rather to provide 'relief' to the primary existing downtown subway line. Your argument of using the 501 as a basis of comparison doesn't really make logical sense.

Where else on the system could you spend $1.3B and get all that?

For some reason you seem to think I don't think there is any merit whatsoever to Sheppard extension (east or west). That's not true. You list a bunch of useful benefits.

However unless we've got an infinite pot of money to spend on subways, there are a lot more pressing needs.

I'd also be surprised if that western extension would only cost $1.3 billion. Keep in mind there is a major ravine crossing to deal with and the Spadina line alignment at Downsview isn't exactly conducive to turning Sheppard south. Either you'd have to start your turn further to the east and thereby miss Downsview station or you'd have the interchange at right angles and then have to build another stretch of track to the west to turn south and get access to the Wilson yard.