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TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

AlvinofDiaspar said:
DRL long would have provided far more redundancy without building a line that doesn't have much use value on its' own. It's a vaguely nice to have in a system that has too many "must haves".

AoD
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The paradox of "it'll be too busy it'll overload Yonge!"/"it won't be busy enough to warrant a line!" I feel like nobody even knows anymore. Let's not forget models made 10+ years ago would have wildly different results today to determine ridership. A bunch of stuff has and is currently being built that could either take away ridership from a theoretical line or add to it (RER, Transit City LRTs, the frequent bus network, etc). At a glance yea, I'd say those 4km don't really have much in the way of trip generators, but broader cross-town connections to York University, Yorkdale, Downsview Park complex, STC could be something. I think it's safe to say nobody knows and thus an argument one way or the other is highly speculative given the current data we know and the fact that most of the projections we do have are essentially obsolete by now.

Not to say that the DRL and other projects aren't more pressing.
 
BMO said:
The paradox of "it'll be too busy it'll overload Yonge!"/"it won't be busy enough to warrant a line!" I feel like nobody even knows anymore. Let's not forget models made 10+ years ago would have wildly different results today to determine ridership. A bunch of stuff has and is currently being built that could either take away ridership from a theoretical line or add to it (RER, Transit City LRTs, the frequent bus network, etc). At a glance yea, I'd say those 4km don't really have much in the way of trip generators, but broader cross-town connections to York University, Yorkdale, Downsview Park complex, STC could be something. I think it's safe to say nobody knows and thus an argument one way or the other is highly speculative given the current data we know and the fact that most of the projections we do have are essentially obsolete by now.
Click to expand...

That's like saying modelling doesn't matter but my guess does - not sure if it's a road capital intensive transit planning should go down on.

AoD
 
If the Sheppard Stubway was never built nor proposed, where would DRL long end? I would assume at Finch because a Finch LRT Crosstown could meet up with it.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
If money grows on trees? We are talking about a hypothetical Phase II of a project where Phase I hasn't even materialized yet.

AoD
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No one thinks this is a priority ahead of the DRL but it merits to be looked at the very least. With the city finally looking at long term public transit funding via road tolls, it's not about money growing on trees but having a sustainable long term financing plan allow in us to keep building subways instead of doing it by waves after decades of having nothing which always ends up costing much more in the end.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
That's like saying modelling doesn't matter but my guess does - not sure if it's a road capital intensive transit planning should go down on.

AoD
Click to expand...
Not saying modelling doesn't matter, I'm saying your (i'm assuming educated based on previous projections) statement is factually inaccurate today (not a personal jab, it's something that gets tossed around all the time about Sheppard West). Things built in the past 5 years would have a tremendous impact on modelling assumptions and travel demand on a meso/macro scale. All I'm saying is that the reality is nobody knows if the line would be busy or not. My guess based on the built-form would be that it wouldn't be very busy, but as we all know transportation is much more complex than simply looking at the density at four different intersections (projecting my own assumptions here).
 
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BMO said:
Not saying modelling doesn't matter, I'm saying your (i'm assuming educated based on previous projections) statement is factually inaccurate today (not a personal jab, it's something that gets tossed around all the time about Sheppard West). Things built in the past 5 years would have a tremendous impact on modelling assumptions and travel demand on a meso/macro scale. All I'm saying is that the reality is nobody knows if the line would be busy or not. My guess based on the built-form would be that it wouldn't be very busy, but as we all know transportation is much more complex than simply looking at the density at four different intersections (projecting my own assumptions here).
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DRL long has been subjected to modelling as recently as the last 2 years (and will continue to be subjected to modelling given the current planning efforts). No modelling of any kind suggests ridership for Sheppard West that is remotely comparable to that - and why should it? The trip generators are of a different magnitude.

AoD
 
Cobra said:
No one thinks this is a priority ahead of the DRL but it merits to be looked at the very least. With the city finally looking at long term public transit funding via road tolls, it's not about money growing on trees but having a sustainable long term financing plan allow in us to keep building subways instead of doing it by waves after decades of having nothing which always ends up costing much more in the end.
Click to expand...

Of course we should, but you still have to prioritize with or without constant funding- and that aspect is still dependent on ridership.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
DRL long has been subjected to modelling as recently as the last 2 years (and will continue to be subjected to modelling given the current planning efforts). No modelling of any kind suggests ridership for Sheppard West that is remotely comparable to that - and why should it? The trip generators are of a different magnitude.

AoD
Click to expand...

I think we're on the same page...except I don't think any recent models were completed for Sheppard West? (maybe I'm wrong)
 
BMO said:
I think we're on the same page...except I don't think any recent models were completed for Sheppard West? (maybe I'm wrong)
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No recent models were completed because by the time that it becomes remotely sane to spend a penny on it instead of other projects, those models would be out of date. I don't see Sheppard West being looked at seriously before 2025 at the earliest--well, knowing our council's love for throwing money into things that they shouldn't, it could always be before that, but it ought not be any sooner.

So, since a newer model would be needed anyways, there's no point doing it now. Also, keep in mind, modelling costs money+staff time, and that similarly has to come out of other things that need the money more.
 
BMO said:
The paradox of "it'll be too busy it'll overload Yonge!"/"it won't be busy enough to warrant a line!" I feel like nobody even knows anymore. Let's not forget models made 10+ years ago would have wildly different results today to determine ridership. A bunch of stuff has and is currently being built that could either take away ridership from a theoretical line or add to it (RER, Transit City LRTs, the frequent bus network, etc). At a glance yea, I'd say those 4km don't really have much in the way of trip generators, but broader cross-town connections to York University, Yorkdale, Downsview Park complex, STC could be something. I think it's safe to say nobody knows and thus an argument one way or the other is highly speculative given the current data we know and the fact that most of the projections we do have are essentially obsolete by now.

Not to say that the DRL and other projects aren't more pressing.
Click to expand...
I agree with yourself and others that there are more pressing projects to be considered in the near term. However, that 4km could create a number of pluses for the whole system. Redundancy as someone mentioned when the Yonge Line goes down, northern cross-town travel that dovetails with the LRT projects planned to the east and west and the new GO station at Downsview. Three train lines intersecting with redundancy and a layover yard.
 
Perchance said:
I agree with yourself and others that there are more pressing projects to be considered in the near term. However, that 4km could create a number of pluses for the whole system. Redundancy as someone mentioned when the Yonge Line goes down, northern cross-town travel that dovetails with the LRT projects planned to the east and west and the new GO station at Downsview. Three train lines intersecting with redundancy and a layover yard.
Click to expand...
The only way Sheppard could really help the system is if it had a yard of its own to relieve Wilson and Davisville by pushing trains out via the non revenue Yonge-Sheppard connection, given Wilson is already going to be hardpressed to squeeze out enough trains in a timely fashion at beginning and end of service. Not many obvious places to put even a Vincent sized yard anywhere close to the current eastern terminus, especially factoring the land acquisition cost. You also have to factor the construction impact of cutting Sheppard into the existing TYSSE extension, and the impact on TYSSE capacity of Sheppard trains joining and leaving the line.
 
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