TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[TheTigerMaster]

I understand now. I was referring to the Yonge Subway ridership in my previous posts.

Still, thats only 15% of capacity. You'd have to be insane to support this project.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I don't no worries haha, I just believe in ensuring that honest arguments are given from both sides, as there have been lots of crap and lies coming from both the LRT and Subway people.

 

[andrewpmk]

I'm not sure by what you mean by "traditional" subway capacity. We know that the Yonge Subway downtown moves 34,000 pphpd today.Metrolinx forcasts that this will be 44,000 pphpd at points in the coming years.

Regardless, I think we all agree that spending billions in capital expenditures in addition to massive operational subsidies to move only 4,000 pphpd, on a system designed to carry at the very 7x to 11x as many passengers would be very irresponsible.

We don't need anything like this demand to justify a subway. Anything over 5000-7500 or so will overload a LRT, so if the projected demand is only a bit below that level we should build a subway. Keep in mind the big advantage of not having a transfer, plus the rather large uncertainty in these ridership projections. Given the very high levels of residential development on Sheppard compared to most parts of Toronto outside downtown, there are obviously confounding factors causing low demand on Sheppard. The subway was never completed to its intended length; the short subway has a limited ability to replace trips on the congested 401, whereas a longer subway might be more useful for these trips; also for trips going downtown, the Yonge line is severely overcrowded which probably encourages people to use the congested DVP to get downtown instead of Sheppard and Yonge subways.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Peak demand on the Sheppard LRT is way out of whack now, you can't claim previous numbers because of the Scarborough subway. The LRT will experience even less use now. Finch's predicted maximum use is less than half of LRTs maximum capacity, while the Sheppards LRT original estimates put it at around 3/4 maximum capacity. This will probably drop to around 1/2 again now that the Scarborough subway will be diverting riders halfway along the route.

and you seriously considering spending another $2 billion to eliminate a transfer? it would be much cheaper to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT for $600 million if you really, really want to get rid of the transfer. 401 trips rarely end along the stretch that the Sheppard subway would have run. Most trips end in the airport employment area, (the busiest portion of highway on the planet is between Weston and the 400) which would be better served by the Eglinton LRT extension. I can tell you right now that the sheppard subway does NOT make sense in any way whatsoever, most trips on the 401 cannot be replaced by urban rapid transit, and there simply aren't many Generators along the Sheppard corridor. The only really major job centre is the one on the North East corner of the 404/401 interchange, Which is why I think they should have extended the subway by 1 stop to Consumers instead of running the LRT underground to Consumers, but still. Lastman justified the Sheppard subway by producing outlandishly high job projections for NYCC and STC (think of each centre having 3/4 the office space of downtown, that is the type of projection he made), and without that kind of employment along the corridor, it will never be justified. as a hint, that kind of employment never will come to the corridor.

Subways aren't really justifiable until you reach around 10-15,000 PPHD, which is why I supported the Scarborough subway, (14,000) the DRL, (12,000) and the Yonge extension (12,000 I think) 7,000 on the Sheppard line is simply too low, especially considering it is a singular line. Extensions that run 14,000k numbers are justifiable as the line still peaks at maximum capacity further down the line, but to build an entire subway that would be running 1/4 maximum capacity is silly.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

We don't need anything like this demand to justify a subway. Anything over 5000-7500 or so will overload a LRT

This isn't true at all. I don't know where you're getting this 5,000 number from. Demand on the Sheppard East LRT will be a fraction of what the capacity is.

2031, the Sheppard East LRT is forecasted to have ridership of 3,000 pphpd. Service will be provided 30 meter long light rail vehicles operating at 3 minute headways. This should provide a maximum capacity of about 3,200 pphpd, which is more than enough for the line. If additional capacity is needed, the length of the light rail vehicles can be tripled to 90 meters. This will give us a capacity of about 10,000 pphpd on the Sheppard East LRT.

In short: 18 years from now, Sheppard East will have ridership of 3,000 pphpd. LRT can accommodate ridership of up to 10,000 pphpd. That's more than three times what the ridership on Sheppard East demands. This thing won't be "overloading" anytime soon (or in the very distant future).

 

[innsertnamehere]

Sheppard will be running 2 car trains opening day, meaning 60 meter long trains.

 

[ssiguy2]

One of the 4 new Sao Paulo monorail lines will have capacity of 49,000 pphpd with just 100 meter stations due to frequency of every 75 seconds.

 

[Xiaohaha]

If demand is so low, what's wrong with bus service indefinitely? The Scarborough extension with serve Scarberians along Sheppard. The subway can be extended eastward in the decades to come, when demand materializes.
If there were no subway, the Sheppard East LRT makes sense. The subway is a significant sunk cost, and building the LRT eastward is bad for the future. I don't think the sunk cost argument is fallacious in this case.

Either the demand on Sheppard East is low, and busses will suffice, or the demand is high enough to be near capacity for the LRT, in which case we should prefer a subway. Sheppard East LRT is a shortsighted decision that's pragmatic for 2013 but not pragmatic for 2031.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Nigera is building a line with a capacity of 40,000 with our existing subway cars.. mind you they will be 8 car trains, but still quite high. also, TTC would never dare touch monorail given it's last failure in trying experimental tech.

 

[11th]

The SRT and the western half of the Bloor Danforth is much higher in ridership and both those are incomplete. People Bayview village won't get out of their cars,.

They were speaking about parallel routes, SRT and Bloor gets a lot of its ridership from Mississauga and the eastern fringes of Toronto. Bayview Village? Two things: 1. why would they take a one stop ride just to transfer to another line at Yonge? 2. stand yourself on that part of Sheppard during rush hour, you'll see people walking on sidewalks, to their condos.

If demand is so low, what's wrong with bus service indefinitely? The Scarborough extension with serve Scarberians along Sheppard. The subway can be extended eastward in the decades to come, when demand materializes.
If there were no subway, the Sheppard East LRT makes sense. The subway is a significant sunk cost, and building the LRT eastward is bad for the future. I don't think the sunk cost argument is fallacious in this case.

Either the demand on Sheppard East is low, and busses will suffice, or the demand is high enough to be near capacity for the LRT, in which case we should prefer a subway. Sheppard East LRT is a shortsighted decision that's pragmatic for 2013 but not pragmatic for 2031.

The thing is, the demand will never materializes, as said by the pro-LRT crowd. Although I don't trust any projection numbers. Since it's been said the subway was built based on falsely cooked up numbers, the same could be said about the current projections. That argument can go both ways.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If demand is so low, what's wrong with bus service indefinitely?

Absolutely nothing. Bus rapid transit can easily carry 3,000 pphpd with similar service quality. The LRT will be providing a quality far beyond what the route actually needs

The Scarborough extension with serve Scarberians along Sheppard. The subway can be extended eastward in the decades to come, when demand materializes.

We'll be waiting a long time for that demand to materialize. And by a long time, I mean approaching 70 or 80 years. Do you really want Sheppard to have no higher order transit for that length of time? We should do what we've always done in Toronto, and built intermediate capacity solutions first. And then, when the demand is there build the subway. It's what we did for the Bloor-Danforth and Yonge. They had streetcars on them for 100 years. And mind that the Yonge and Bloor streetcars were vastly inferior to the Sheppard East LRT. I'm sure that if they had the LRT technology in the 1940s that we do today, a Yonge light rail line likely could have run into the early 1970s.

If there were no subway, the Sheppard East LRT makes sense. The subway is a significant sunk cost, and building the LRT eastward is bad for the future. I don't think the sunk cost argument is fallacious in this case.

So you believe that spending $3 Billion+ in capital expenditures, as well as subsidizing each trip to the tune of $10 for several decades is a good idea?

Either the demand on Sheppard East is low, and busses will suffice, or the demand is high enough to be near capacity for the LRT,

As per my previous post, this is untrue.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Sheppard will be running 2 car trains opening day, meaning 60 meter long trains.

When did this change? One of the Metrolinx PDFs I linked to showed 30 meters on opening day. Regardless this doesn't change that Sheppard East will have 3,000 pphpd in 2031 (probably less now with the Bloor-Danforth extension) and a maximum capacity of 10,000 pphpd using currently available technology.

 

[Xiaohaha]

Absolutely nothing. Bus rapid transit can easily carry 3,000 with similar service quality. The LRT will be providing a quality far beyond what the route actually needs




We'll be waiting a long time for that demand to materialize. And by a long time, I mean approaching 70 or 80 years. Do you really want Sheppard to have no higher order transit for that length of time? We should do what we've always done in Toronto, and built intermediate capacity solutions first. And then, when the demand is there build the subway. It's what we did for the Bloor-Danforth and Yonge. They had streetcars on them for 100 years. And mind that the Yonge and Bloor streetcars were vastly inferior to the Sheppard East LRT. I'm sure that if they had the LRT technology in the 1940s that we do today, a Yonge light rail line likely could have run into the early 1970s.




So you believe that spending $3 Billion+ in capital expenditures, as well as subsidizing each trip to the tune of $10 for several decades is a good idea?




As per my previous post, this is untrue.

You didn't understand my argument.

Clearly there is no demand for a subway today. You said even the LRT is overkill, I agree.

Since there is already the subway from Yonge to Don Mills, on Sheppard east of Don Mills it should be subway or nothing. I'm not saying build a subway today. We should have bus service on Sheppard East indefinitely until demand materializes for a subway, whether that be 10 years from now or 50 or 80 years.

Here is the logic of the argument. There are only two possibilities on opening day:

Either demand is approaching capacity, i.e. >70%
Or demand is significantly less than capacity, i.e. <70%

In scenario one, busses will suffice. In scenario two, subways are preferable to LRT. These two cases exhaust all possibilities. The LRT, while much cheaper than subway, is still a significant capital investment, and it's too much to spend for such a non-ideal configuration. Do people really think the LRT-to-subway transfer at Don Mills, however easy it might be, is a logical set up?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't think a BRT would be the best solution here solution here. Sheppard demands 3,000 pphpd. I roughly estimate that the practical limit of BRT would be ~4,000 pphpd with 90 seconds frequencies. That should serve us well for the next 20 years. But I can't see that operating at optimal quality in a ROW environment as well as the higher operational costs of running that many busses. BRT can work on Sheppard with okay service quality, but the LRT is the superior option.

 

[CITY_LOVER]

I would rather have the sheppard subway extend westward to the university line so that it connects the yonge and university lines. just like the finch lrt line, the sheppard lrt line will be a feeder to the subway lines. further, i would like the drl to start at don mills subway station (so this station becomes a major interchange for multiple lines), and go all the way to downtown and up again up to the eglinton lrt line....