TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[BurlOak]

It would be nice to poll the existing riders, giving them 3 options:

1) Extend the subway to Agincourt, and build LRT or BRT east of it.
2) Convert the subway to LRT and build a continuous LRT line, but then the existing subway will have to be closed for 4-6 months for the conversion.
3) Leave the existing subway as is, and build LRT east of Don Mills, with a single-platform transfer.

I imagine that the majority of riders will prefer Option 1. But if Option 1 is too expensive, they will prefer Option 3 since it is less disruptive than Option 2.

I would vote for option 1, although it would be the more expensive than 3. I would guess that the closure for option 2 would be more than 6 months - the SRT closure is 3 years to convert outdoor stations to LRT - and the cost would be no less than option 1. If you ever hope to have frequent, all day rail service (GO REX) through Agincourt, then option 1 starts to look even better.

 

[BurlOak]

There is a flaw in this logic. For the grade-separated SLRT+ECLRT option, you look at the SLRT+ECLRT numbers only and do not account for the impact on Danforth subway. Meanwhile, if those new SLRT+ECLRT riders simply shift from Danforth to ECLRT, then the overall number of new riders for the system may be no greater than for the Danforth extension option.

I do not think there is much of a flaw.

If you compare a grade-separated ECLRT, plus a B-D subway to a median ECLRT plus a B-D subway, which would have the greater capacity to carry Scarberians towards the core? It creates two routes that have a bit of room for growth, instead of an even more packed subway. I would guess the 1st option would be much more likely to attract new riders.

 

[Johnny Au]

Here is Bessarion's namesake:

Basilios Bessarion of the Byzantines.

Jeremy Woodcock should learn more about this man.

 

[gweed123]

There is a flaw in this logic. For the grade-separated SLRT+ECLRT option, you look at the SLRT+ECLRT numbers only and do not account for the impact on Danforth subway. Meanwhile, if those new SLRT+ECLRT riders simply shift from Danforth to ECLRT, then the overall number of new riders for the system may be no greater than for the Danforth extension option.

But shifting riders off of Bloor-Danforth opens up capacity for people further down the line to get on. Right now I bet there are quite a few people who avoid taking B-D (especially if they get on from say Woodbine inward) because it's too crowded in the morning.

You're using the same argument that's used against the DRL: "Well, all you're really doing is just shifting Yonge riders somewhere else. You aren't actually bringing very many new riders onto the system." That argument doesn't really hold much water when you consider how many new riders will start taking the Yonge line (or in this case, Bloor-Danforth) specifically because the riders that were previously crowding them out are now on a different route.

For some would-be riders it's a comfort issue (I don't like being packed in). For some it's a timing issue (I don't want to have to wait 2 trains to finally get one with enough room to squeeze on). Now admittedly Bloor-Danforth doesn't have quite the same capacity crunch that Yonge does, but it's still a pretty busy line. I know I sometimes had trouble getting on at Sherbourne heading westbound in the AM.

 

[Voltz]

For the allocated $1B, I do not think option 1 is feasible.

Maybe they should:
- Extend Sheppard East Subway to Vic Park (the current 404 and Sheppard area is just awful in terms of traffic, so this will help relieve that area), then they BRT the rest of the way (widen Sheppard all they way to Markham Rd).

- Use the savings to build the B-D subway extension East to Sheppard. I like the McCowan-Lawrence and STC stops, but I think they should end the line at Markham Rd and Sheppard, NOT McCowan. There is a much higher need for a stop on Markham Rd (near Malvern and Centennial College), then at McCowan Rd (not much there really).

Extending the Sheppard Subway to Victoria Park will eat up the entire LRT budget, there are no savings that could be applied elsewhere.

 

[kEiThZ]

It would be nice to poll the existing riders, giving them 3 options:

1) Extend the subway to Agincourt, and build LRT or BRT east of it.
2) Convert the subway to LRT and build a continuous LRT line, but then the existing subway will have to be closed for 4-6 months for the conversion.
3) Leave the existing subway as is, and build LRT east of Don Mills, with a single-platform transfer.

I imagine that the majority of riders will prefer Option 1. But if Option 1 is too expensive, they will prefer Option 3 since it is less disruptive than Option 2.

Given that option most I know would go 1,2,3 in that order. Or they'd go 2,1,3 depending on how much they dislike transfers. I can't think of a single person I know who'd say 1,3,2. You really under estimate how much people dislike transfers and how much they want a faster ride. And you'll also under-estimate how much of Scarborough's population is actually west of Agincourt.

 

[kEiThZ]

Extending the Sheppard Subway to Victoria Park will eat up the entire LRT budget, there are no savings that could be applied elsewhere.

I would love to know why building an LRT tunnel under the 404 is so much cheaper than building a subway tunnel under the 404. Everyone states this as fact. Yet, I've never seen actual data on why that is. I am curious.

 

[gweed123]

I would love to know why building an LRT tunnel under the 404 is so much cheaper than building a subway tunnel under the 404. Everyone states this as fact. Yet, I've never seen actual data on why that is. I am curious.

The LRT tunnel does end at Consumers, with at-grade stops at Vic Park and I believe Consumers as well. A subway extension would chew up at least $600 million of the $950 million, but I don't think it would chew up all of it.

Given that option most I know would go 1,2,3 in that order. Or they'd go 2,1,3 depending on how much they dislike transfers. I can't think of a single person I know who'd say 1,3,2. You really under estimate how much people dislike transfers and how much they want a faster ride. And you'll also under-estimate how much of Scarborough's population is actually west of Agincourt.

2, 1, 3 would be my personal choice. Do the 4-6 months from April to September-ish, that way a) the weather is nicer, b) university isn't in session (for most students), and c) traffic is generally lighter in the summer (people taking weeks off). Run the Sheppard East bus to Sheppard-Yonge for the summer, and then open everything in September as a continuous thru-line.

 

[Voltz]

I would love to know why building an LRT tunnel under the 404 is so much cheaper than building a subway tunnel under the 404. Everyone states this as fact. Yet, I've never seen actual data on why that is. I am curious.

Two more underground stations and a few hundred more metres of underground tunnel. That is the official cost estimate that has been given.

 

[Rainforest]

If you compare a grade-separated ECLRT, plus a B-D subway to a median ECLRT plus a B-D subway, which would have the greater capacity to carry Scarberians towards the core? It creates two routes that have a bit of room for growth, instead of an even more packed subway. I would guess the 1st option would be much more likely to attract new riders.

Good question. Theoretically, grade-separate LRT plus a subway will have more capacity than in-median LRT plus a subway.

But if we take into account the distribution of the riders in the first model, there is a risk that too many of them try to use LRT that has less capacity than the subway, and prevent riders from boarding ECLRT at points further west. At the same time, much of the B-D capacity might remain unused.

 

[Rainforest]

But shifting riders off of Bloor-Danforth opens up capacity for people further down the line to get on. Right now I bet there are quite a few people who avoid taking B-D (especially if they get on from say Woodbine inward) because it's too crowded in the morning.

This is a unknown factor though. You might still be right; I just wanted to say that one more factor needs to be added to the equation, before we know whether you are right.

You're using the same argument that's used against the DRL: "Well, all you're really doing is just shifting Yonge riders somewhere else. You aren't actually bringing very many new riders onto the system." That argument doesn't really hold much water when you consider how many new riders will start taking the Yonge line (or in this case, Bloor-Danforth) specifically because the riders that were previously crowding them out are now on a different route.

For some would-be riders it's a comfort issue (I don't like being packed in). For some it's a timing issue (I don't want to have to wait 2 trains to finally get one with enough room to squeeze on). Now admittedly Bloor-Danforth doesn't have quite the same capacity crunch that Yonge does, but it's still a pretty busy line. I know I sometimes had trouble getting on at Sherbourne heading westbound in the AM.

It should be noted that DRL running to Pape & Danforth will relief both Yonge and the busiest section of Danforth.

 

[Rainforest]

Given that option most I know would go 1,2,3 in that order. Or they'd go 2,1,3 depending on how much they dislike transfers. I can't think of a single person I know who'd say 1,3,2. You really under estimate how much people dislike transfers and how much they want a faster ride. And you'll also under-estimate how much of Scarborough's population is actually west of Agincourt.

People dislike route closures as well.

Furthermore, riders who currently take a bus from the north to Don Mills subway, will not benefit from the subway-to-LRT conversion at all. For those riders, conversion is just a pain with no gain.

Same goes for many riders who live further east along Finch or Ellesmere, and whose bus routes could be reconfigured to feed into Sheppard subway.

Conversion is of clear benefit only for people who live along Sheppard, east of Don Mills. I am not sure that they make the majority of the subway users.

 

[gweed123]

This is a unknown factor though. You might still be right; I just wanted to say that one more factor needs to be added to the equation, before we know whether you are right.

It should be noted that DRL running to Pape & Danforth will relief both Yonge and the busiest section of Danforth.

"Latent demand" (or "induced demand") is hard to measure, because it's hard to total up how many people are in the "I would if it got better, but I won't right now" category. It would be very hard to conclusively say that that would/did happen, until the pre and post construction numbers were compared.

The DRL will indeed relieve both, but I believe the effect will be greater on Yonge, and specifically at Bloor-Yonge. However, the situation from Pape eastward may actually get worse, not better.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Since the subway is already there, ideally it would be better to take it off the subway system and reclassify it as part of a commuter rail uptown service with less frequencies in the day, and skipping over some streets even if they have bus routes. Then just run the regular Sheppard busses for local travel along it, or as a feeder to this Uptown line.

 

[BurlOak]

The LRT tunnel does end at Consumers, with at-grade stops at Vic Park and I believe Consumers as well. A subway extension would chew up at least $600 million of the $950 million, but I don't think it would chew up all of it.

2, 1, 3 would be my personal choice.

I wonder how many (few) of these enhancements would be needed before the public would support the Big Move. Maybe $500M for Sheppard to Agincourt, $300M for elevated ECLRT and maybe something else. The inability to budge from the Transit City plan, that was soundly defeated at the polls, has led to the entire $50B Big Move being in jeopardy. A few percent extra, which is almost within a rounding error, could have easily led to some greater acceptance to increasing revenues (taxes) for transit.