TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[nfitz]

Funny, I thought double-standards and straw-men arguments were the sole domain of the LRTistas.

He says using a straw-man argument.

I don't even know who these LRTistas are that you keep pretending about. Most who you accuse of this support heavy subway where appropriate (Yonge extension, Downtown Relief Line, even much of the Spadina extension for some). Surely any transit expansion should select the correct transit technology based on demand - which will differ from location-to-location. So subway for some locations, grade-separated LRT/ICTS in others. And also a mix of surface LRT, bus upgrades, and commuter rail.

I refuse to believe that Greater Toronto, which has probably double the population it did when it started building subways, now cannot support subways anywhere.

I doubt anyone would believe it, given we are in the middle of our biggest subway expansion since the 1970s. With 2 other major subway extension projects being studied (Yonge and the Downtown Relief Line).

I fail to understand the belief that all transit expansion should be subways, rather than spending the money on subways where they are needed, and other technologies where they are not.

 

[Palma]

I refuse to believe that Greater Toronto, which has probably double the population it did when it started building subways, now cannot support subways anywhere.

As we all know the TTC can cook up any numbers you want to support any possible mode of transit on any route imaginable.
.
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I have seen figures that for subways it costs (at least here in Toronto) up to 300m per station. There are 11 stations along Eglinton where the LRT will be underground (keele to Larid). So if it was a full fledge subway (like Yonge and University) that would mean 3.3 billion for the 11 stations does it not? That means there is still money (almost 5 billion) for the LRT run surface east of Larid and for Finch and Sheappard LRT's (assuming in case Sheppard is not extended as a subway). Is the 5B not more than enough for those 3 LRT's to go from the west all the way east? Or is the cost per subway station much higher then 300m per station?

 

[nfitz]

I have seen figures that for subways it costs (at least here in Toronto) up to 300m per station.

Where have you seen such numbers? That must include all the track between the stations, and the trains, and the yards, if they are about 1 km apart.

A typical Spadina extension station is Finch West. It's costing about $125 million.

Now, I suppose if your buliding a DRL, and you want to build a new station on Wellington, that ties into King station in the east, St. Andrew in the west, with links to Union in the south ... then that would get up into that kind of range (or more). But not for a typical Eglinton line or Sheppard line station.

 

[MetroMan]

Stintz is a really patient woman. Despite having her name dragged in the mud by Ford & Co. and getting her offers for compromise terminated last minute, there is a deal in the making for the March 25 meeting:

Sheppard subway extended both ways. 2 stations to Downsview and 2 stations to Vic Park. Taxes to raise money are the hang up but if Ford agrees to Parking taxes, there will be support on Council to do it.

This would be the best outcome I think. We'd get the YUS loop connected in the North and we'd have ongoing funding that once Sheppard is complete would enable the city to pitch in its 1/3rd to get the feds and province to build the DRL.

 

[Northern Magus]

Well call me prophetic!

If only. Sanity demands taking a dispassionate view and cogently reaching evidence-based decisions. But doing such a thing tends to have Cogniscent Crustacean raging about "LRTistas" and spewing conspiracy theories about the city bureaucracy.

And lo and behold.....

Funny, I thought double-standards and straw-men arguments were the sole domain of the LRTistas. - HERE WE GO!

I refuse to believe that Greater Toronto, which has probably double the population it did when it started building subways, now cannot support subways anywhere. - STRAW MAN: no one is saying this

And if peak oil is around the corner, we should be doing everything in our power to build infrastructure and not throwing up road blocks. - STRAW MAN: no one is blocking infrastructure

As we all know the TTC can cook up any numbers you want to support any possible mode of transit on any route imaginable. - CONSPIRACY THEORY: get your tinfoil hats on

You say Sheppard has low ridership; it doesn't. It's been proven false many times. - FALSEHOOD: but by all means, keep drinking that koolaid

Extending it and making it a true northern crosstown route will only improve its numbers. It might not make a big dent in 401 numbers right now, but as gas gets more expensive, people will look to alternatives, and their first choice is subway. - MAGIC BEANS THEORY: note the absence of evidence-based argument

 

[Palma]

Where have you seen such numbers? That must include all the track between the stations, and the trains, and the yards, if they are about 1 km apart.

A typical Spadina extension station is Finch West. It's costing about $125 million.

Now, I suppose if your buliding a DRL, and you want to build a new station on Wellington, that ties into King station in the east, St. Andrew in the west, with links to Union in the south ... then that would get up into that kind of range (or more). But not for a typical Eglinton line or Sheppard line station.

Of course it includes all the costs of the tracks, stations. I have seen figures quoted here (perhaps a different forum) of 200m all the way up to 350m per station

 

[nfitz]

Stintz is a really patient woman. Despite having her name dragged in the mud by Ford & Co. and getting her offers for compromise terminated last minute, there is a deal in the making for the March 25 meeting:

Sheppard subway extended both ways. 2 stations to Downsview and 2 stations to Vic Park. Taxes to raise money are the hang up but if Ford agrees to Parking taxes, there will be support on Council to do it.

This would be the best outcome I think. We'd get the YUS loop connected in the North and we'd have ongoing funding that once Sheppard is complete would enable the city to pitch in its 1/3rd to get the feds and province to build the DRL.

Interesting ... still gives Ford a couple of weeks to change his mind though about taxes. Will he be able to survive all the nightmares he's going to get about taxes? Will he cope with Nick Kouvalis phoning him up and telling him that he has no chance of winning re-election if he starts creating new taxes?

... and will the hand-picked panel pick this? Will they be able to sell enough councillors on ignoring the experts?

 

[Northern Magus]

He says using a straw-man argument.

Oh dear ntitz, you clearly don't know what a straw man argument is, now do you?

Perhaps you should start researching things a little more often. At least before you start crying "shame" and clamouring for apologies in high dudgeon.

 

[MetroMan]

Interesting ... still gives Ford a couple of weeks to change his mind though about taxes. Will he be able to survive all the nightmares he's going to get about taxes? Will he cope with Nick Kouvalis phoning him up and telling him that he has no chance of winning re-election if he starts creating new taxes?

... and will the hand-picked panel pick this? Will they be able to sell enough councillors on ignoring the experts?

The panel is supporting LRT. Option #2 is that if Council wants a subway, it needs to have the passenger demand. Simply going to Vic Park won't create the kind of demand necessary. However, connecting to Downsview will get the numbers closer. The Provincial and Federal money on the table doesn't get us there, but pitching Toronto's 1/3rd via parking taxes will.

EDIT: To clarify, the stretch of Sheppard between Yonge and Downsivew wouldn't add enough demand to justify the subway -- the current residential neighbourhoods there would have to be razed to create the density, which isn't an option -- however, the panel is considering a different option where Sheppard would become one of two branches of the YUS. Some trains would go to York U, others would go to Vic Park. This option wouldn't require an expensive Downsview station reconfiguration with an additional platform. During construction of the York U extension, a split in the track would be built to allow some trains to go next to Downsview Park station and others would turn into a new Sheppard tunnel with the next stop being Bathurst. Riders that need to switch would simply get off the train and wait on the same platform for the next one going their way.

 

[interchange42]

nfitz, nmagus: give it a rest. anymore jousting between you two will be met with vacations from UT, lengths to be determined.

please just stay on topic without any ad hominem.

42

 

[Rainforest]

Stintz is a really patient woman. Despite having her name dragged in the mud by Ford & Co. and getting her offers for compromise terminated last minute, there is a deal in the making for the March 25 meeting:

Sheppard subway extended both ways. 2 stations to Downsview and 2 stations to Vic Park. Taxes to raise money are the hang up but if Ford agrees to Parking taxes, there will be support on Council to do it.

This would be the best outcome I think. We'd get the YUS loop connected in the North and we'd have ongoing funding that once Sheppard is complete would enable the city to pitch in its 1/3rd to get the feds and province to build the DRL.

Wow, would be great if they can pull it!

That requires $1 billion to $1.5 billion of funding collected by the City in addition to the provincial $8 billion commitment; but would really improve connectivity in the north.

 

[nfitz]

To clarify, the stretch of Sheppard between Yonge and Downsivew wouldn't add enough demand to justify the subway -- the current residential neighbourhoods there would have to be razed to create the density, which isn't an option -- however, the panel is considering a different option where Sheppard would become one of two branches of the YUS. Some trains would go to York U, others would go to Vic Park. This option wouldn't require an expensive Downsview station reconfiguration with an additional platform. During construction of the York U extension, a split in the track would be built to allow some trains to go next to Downsview Park station and others would turn into a new Sheppard tunnel with the next stop being Bathurst. Riders that need to switch would simply get off the train and wait on the same platform for the next one going their way.

Wow ...

And certainly an interesting idea ...

Have you got a source for this? I don't disbelieve you at all ... but wondering if there's anything floating around publicly.

They'd certainly have to move quick. They've already started construction of the TBM extraction shaft north of Downsview station. Surely some of the changes that would be necessary to the tunnel design, impact stuff they are building very soon. Though I guess they could knock holes in the tunnel later ... but what a waste.

Also, given how much of the Downsview platform is north of Sheppard, and the curve that would be required ... that's going to be an interesting piece of track turning to the east. I'd think it would have to get as far north as Searle Avenue or Brighton Avenue before turning south again to Bathurst/Sheppard.

The drama continues ...

... we're getting back to the subway extension I was joking about years ago. Instead of extending YUS to York, we extend it down Sheppard to the Sheppard subway. Then extend the Sheppard subway to Scarborough Centre, and join it to the end of the BD line. So we only have one line.

 

[Hipster Duck]

the panel is considering a different option where Sheppard would become one of two branches of the YUS. Some trains would go to York U, others would go to Vic Park. This option wouldn't require an expensive Downsview station reconfiguration with an additional platform. During construction of the York U extension, a split in the track would be built to allow some trains to go next to Downsview Park station and others would turn into a new Sheppard tunnel with the next stop being Bathurst. Riders that need to switch would simply get off the train and wait on the same platform for the next one going their way.

Interesting. I'm not sure if it's too late, but I wonder if it would be possible to create a wye north of Downsview station to allow Sheppard trains to travel east-"west" from VCC to Don Mills/Vic Park. It would be almost like a northern crosstown. It might be a bit too expensive given travel demand, though, so I wouldn't be too upset if it never got past the fantasy stage.

 

[MetroMan]

nfitz, I do have a source. I frequent City Hall and speak with councillor assistants and know a few of the councillors personally as well. You'll find some of my scoops in the Rob Ford thread where I broke the news that Milcyzn was going to defect to the Stintz camp among others. I won't mention the sources names so that I can continue to bring us more info as I get it.

If you think about it, this option is actually quite ingenious. It serves the purpose of the DRL to an extent. It would relieve pressure off the Bloor/Danforth line. Scarborough residents could choose to instead take the Sheppard line and stay on one train all the way to Union station, by passing the Yonge line and the over capacity Bloor/Yonge station entirely, and giving purpose to the under performing University/Spadina and Sheppard lines.

A DRL in the future would still be necessary, but not so urgently. In fact, one can argue that a future extension from Vic Park to Kennedy would solve the DRL problem entirely.

 

[Rainforest]

If you think about it, this option is actually quite ingenious. It serves the purpose of the DRL to an extent. It would relieve pressure off the Bloor/Danforth line. Scarborough residents could choose to instead take the Sheppard line and stay on one train all the way to Union station, by passing the Yonge line and the over capacity Bloor/Yonge station entirely, and giving purpose to the under performing University/Spadina line.

It certainly makes sense if doable; but is it practical? The Downsview platform is positioned N-S, and ends north of Sheppard. For the trains to serve that platform and then veer to Sheppard, the tracks would have to go quite far north first, and arc under the Wilson Heights / Wilmington area before returning to Sheppard.

It might be easier to feed the Sheppard line into the Wilson station instead of Downsview.