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TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

Exactly how does Tridel profit off a subway station that might arrive in ten years when, A), the condo units have already been sold and, B), they were already advertising them with “future GO, TTC subway, and bus station†access? Are they going to advertise them with “future GO, TTC subway, and bus station – no, really, for real this time†access?

Presumably Tridel has not sold all the condo units for the possible 16 buildings at Metrogate. While a subway would make the development more likely to happen, I'd rather it not be built with taxpayers money at 4x the price when the demand on Sheppard only warrants an LRT line. I generally don't agree with corporate welfare.

So if we build a DRL/King subway, that won't subsidize downtown developers or transfer wealth to downtown landowners? Or do you only have a problem with Sheppard because it's the suburbs? Are downtowners so peeved with crappy surface transit in the trendy neighbourhoods east and west of the core that they bare their teeth and hiss every time progress is made towards transit-oriented development elsewhere in the city?

Say hellp to your neighbour Bob. I've said elsewhere that Raymond Cho is my councilor. I too live in Scarborough and I want LRT precisely because its the right technology for mid-density lines like Sheppard, which by the way I told the mayor when he called me shortly after his election. He always forgets me when he says Scarborough wants subways. DRL/King subway requires underground transit cause there is no room on the surface. I suspect you know this but would like to continue perpetuating the myth that the question is about spoiled downtown residents.

What determines whether there are more buildings? Not transit, that's for sure. The city and the province decide where development will go - not transit. Of course, the city and province also decide where transit will go, so they have complete control.

Really? Didn't you just say Metrogate's advertising promised a subway?

Spending over $1 billion on an on-street streetcar ROW on Sheppard is a frivolous waste of money when we can spend $100 million and achieve everything promised by the LRT with improved bus service.

Really really? Let me see if I understand this? You are OK with spending $4 billion on a Sheppard subway, but not ok with $1 billion for a dedicated LRT line. You'd rather have buses than an LRT line. Please explain, given that the subway will transport no more people than the LRT line given they just don't live in Northeast Toronto.

... why don’t we spend the money running them to places that have actual trip generators and *are* seeing development and are the places officially slated for more growth by every body (including the real estate market at large) that has the power to make further growth materialize?

I think Centennial College, the University of Toronto @ Scarborough, STC, the Zoo as well as the medium density all along Sheppard are decent trip generators. It's hard for developers to remember I know but building transit isn't only about selling condos at a higher price. It's also about moving the population.
 
Quick question- what will become of the Don Mills bus terminal once either the Sheppard East LRT or the extension to Victoria Park is built?
 
Presumably Tridel has not sold all the condo units for the possible 16 buildings at Metrogate. While a subway would make the development more likely to happen, I'd rather it not be built with taxpayers money at 4x the price when the demand on Sheppard only warrants an LRT line. I generally don't agree with corporate welfare.

Tridel is only building 6. Again, how is it corporate welfare to build a subway station at a GO interchange a decade after the condos are built? Because in 20 years they might possibly buy more land and build more condos there?

Say hellp to your neighbour Bob. I've said elsewhere that Raymond Cho is my councilor. I too live in Scarborough and I want LRT precisely because its the right technology for mid-density lines like Sheppard, which by the way I told the mayor when he called me shortly after his election. He always forgets me when he says Scarborough wants subways. DRL/King subway requires underground transit cause there is no room on the surface. I suspect you know this but would like to continue perpetuating the myth that the question is about spoiled downtown residents.

Your reading comprehension sucks. Where did I say King doesn't need a subway? It needs a subway sooner than Sheppard needs to be extended. I said it's dumb to single out Sheppard as corporate welfare when the exact same thing (an attempt to co-locate transit and development) would occur with the DRL/King, and when the Sheppard LRT's explicit goal is to execute a housing redevelopment agenda in Malvern (in defiance of current planning and real estate market conditions, of course, so good luck with that). Some people think transit should be planned around efficiently moving masses of people and some others think it should be planned around reinvesting in racialized and underprivileged communities. Too bad the latter group was in control when Santa McGuintyclaus came to town.

You think every dollar spent on Sheppard would be stolen from you and stolen from the DRL. Well, that's not how funding works. It's not like the province has a DRL piggy bank and a Sheppard piggy bank that it must choose between while slowly dropping toonies into. If we spend zero dollars on extending the Sheppard subway, that coincidentally frees up zero dollars for a DRL.

We were given a blank cheque in 2007 and the whole thing was funneled to Eglinton. The DRL and Sheppard were both skipped.

Really? Didn't you just say Metrogate's advertising promised a subway?

It advertised future subway/GO access, yes, because that's what the city's plan was. The city created the Agincourt secondary plan and the city approved the Metrogate complex and its rezoning. Uh, yeah, shame on Tridel for suggesting the city follow through with its plans to run transit through actual development zones.

Really really? Let me see if I understand this? You are OK with spending $4 billion on a Sheppard subway, but not ok with $1 billion for a dedicated LRT line. You'd rather have buses than an LRT line. Please explain, given that the subway will transport no more people than the LRT line given they just don't live in Northeast Toronto.

That ~$4B extends Sheppard both ways, remember, and there's ways to lower that pricetag somewhat. All the people on Sheppard benefit from a longer subway, even the few riders coming in from Morningside or Meadowvale. But no one south of Sheppard benefits from the LRT...no one at STC or Centennial or anywhere else. We can't afford to spend over a billion dollars to end up with service equivalent to what we can get by improving the existing buses for 1/10th that amount.

And while Sheppard needs to be extended, no, it is not the highest priority project. It should have already been built by now, but it wasn't and it can wait.

I think Centennial College, the University of Toronto @ Scarborough, STC, the Zoo as well as the medium density all along Sheppard are decent trip generators. It's hard for developers to remember I know but building transit isn't only about selling condos at a higher price. It's also about moving the population.

Surely you know that other than the Zoo (which sees very little traffic from transit, and not just because it's deserted half the year), those places are not on Sheppard. But they *would* all benefit from a longer Sheppard subway via STC, especially if Sheppard continued east of STC. STC is a textbook perfect transit hub.

The population isn't along the eastern half of Sheppard so it won't move many people. The only spot with any concentration of people is at Markham/Progress and any line from STC-Malvern would already serve this. Take that away and you're left with next to nothing on Sheppard east of Agincourt except light industry, backyards, and a few strip malls. Meanwhile, if you were to take a transit line south-east once you hit Agincourt, you can bring it to clusters of apartments/condos, the biggest trip generator in the eastern half of the GTA (the mall), tens of thousands of jobs, a hospital, and two growing college campuses, not to mention tons of available land for development and the ability to connect with more and busier transit routes. Draw a slightly diagonal line from North York Centre to UTSC...that's where the people are that you need to move.
 
Surely you know that other than the Zoo (which sees very little traffic from transit, and not just because it's deserted half the year), those places are not on Sheppard. But they *would* all benefit from a longer Sheppard subway via STC, especially if Sheppard continued east of STC. STC is a textbook perfect transit hub.

The population isn't along the eastern half of Sheppard so it won't move many people.

Maybe a picture will help restore some sanity to the debate. This image comparing the Sheppard East LRT with the subway was created by the Globe & Mail.

GMSELRT.jpg


There are apartment complexes at the major intersections all along Sheppard. As well the University of of Scarborough exists east of Morningside. There are discussions about bringing the end of the SELRT south to the University. Transit users south of Sheppard are served because of the interconnection between the rebuilt SRT and the SELRT.

According to Glenn De Baeremaeker, STC represents only the centre of Scarborough. Ending the transit line there, as the subway would, kills rapid transit for the eastern half of the borough.
 
The 1990s plan for the Sheppard subway had 2 stops between Kennedy and Scarborough Centre. These were Agincourt station and Progress station.
 
Maybe a picture will help restore some sanity to the debate. This image comparing the Sheppard East LRT with the subway was created by the Globe & Mail.

GMSELRT.jpg


There are apartment complexes at the major intersections all along Sheppard. As well the University of of Scarborough exists east of Morningside. There are discussions about bringing the end of the SELRT south to the University. Transit users south of Sheppard are served because of the interconnection between the rebuilt SRT and the SELRT.

According to Glenn De Baeremaeker, STC represents only the centre of Scarborough. Ending the transit line there, as the subway would, kills rapid transit for the eastern half of the borough.

If you really care about Sheppard, the LRT should start somewhere logical (e.g. Agincourt) and go east of there, which wouldn't have been served by the Sheppard subway anyway.
 
Maybe a picture will help restore some sanity to the debate.

If only. Sanity demands taking a dispassionate view and cogently reaching evidence-based decisions. But doing such a thing tends to have Cogniscent Crustacean raging about "LRTistas" and spewing conspiracy theories about the city bureaucracy.

There's a certain number of folk in these threads (thankfully fewer than there used to be -- much to their credit) who believe that every transit decision must necessarily begin with the conclusion that subways must be built everywhere. Double standards are then applied to critique LRTs only, and all kinds of straw men and false dichotomies used to justify subways.

That, of course, is the precise opposite of evidence-based decision-making.

I don't have a problem with anyone looking to leverage existing transit infrastructure -- I'd argue that it's usually a smart thing to do since it could potentially result in considerable cost savings. But I do take issue with putting the cart before the horse. And I have yet to see anything beyond a "magic beans theory of subways" justifying the Shep: the numbers just aren't there.

The Grid has an interesting and informative take, here.

And this excellent graphic:

DPS2.jpg
 
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This graphic makes painfully obvious the fact that light rail is a much lower capacity mode of transit than subways. Sure it is cheaper but it still costs several times as much as BRT. The light rail line will have small islands like bus stops similar to the St Clair line. It will have an excessive number of stops and it will be slower than subway, not to mention that a transfer at Don Mills will waste about 5 minutes of a commuters' time. Basically it is like the St Clair line with more modern rolling stock and a slightly better signal priority system. Maybe it will resemble the Tram T3 line in the south of Paris but that line isn't much faster than the St Clair streetcar. Also this graphic makes it painfully obvious that running underground streetcars in Eglinton makes no sense. The streetcar sections of the line obviously have a much lower capacity than subways and this will translate into a lower capacity for the underground section than heavy rail subway. Also elevated rail costs about half the cost of subway and twice that of LRT, but has the same capacity as subway. The benefit/cost ratio for elevated is much higher than for LRT.
 
If only. Sanity demands taking a dispassionate view and cogently reaching evidence-based decisions. But doing such a thing tends to have Cogniscent Crustacean raging about "LRTistas" and spewing conspiracy theories about the city bureaucracy.

There's a certain number of folk in these threads (thankfully fewer than there used to be -- much to their credit) who believe that every transit decision must necessarily begin with the conclusion that subways must be built everywhere. Double standards are then applied to critique LRTs only, and all kinds of straw men and false dichotomies used to justify subways.

That, of course, is the precise opposite of evidence-based decision-making.

I don't have a problem with anyone looking to leverage existing transit infrastructure -- I'd argue that it's usually a smart thing to do since it could potentially result in considerable cost savings. But I do take issue with putting the cart before the horse. And I have yet to see anything beyond a "magic beans theory of subways" justifying the Shep: the numbers just aren't there.

Funny, I thought double-standards and straw-men arguments were the sole domain of the LRTistas.

I refuse to believe that Greater Toronto, which has probably double the population it did when it started building subways, now cannot support subways anywhere.

And if peak oil is around the corner, we should be doing everything in our power to build infrastructure and not throwing up road blocks.

As we all know the TTC can cook up any numbers you want to support any possible mode of transit on any route imaginable.

You say Sheppard has low ridership; it doesn't. It's been proven false many times. Extending it and making a true northern crosstown route will only improve its numbers. It might not make a big dent in 401 numbers right now, but as gas gets more expensive, people will look to alternatives, and their first choice is subway.

Now we can argue till you're blue in the face, and probably will. So go right ahead. Enjoy.
 
You say Sheppard has low ridership; it doesn't. It's been proven false many times. Extending it and making a true northern crosstown route will only improve its numbers. It might not make a big dent in 401 numbers right now, but as gas gets more expensive, people will look to alternatives, and their first choice is subway.

That's weird... I've been on the Sheppard Subway many times, both on and off-peak. Not once have I seen a subway car filled at any of those times. Not even near it. Seems like low ridership to me...
 
Presumably Tridel has not sold all the condo units for the possible 16 buildings at Metrogate. While a subway would make the development more likely to happen, I'd rather it not be built with taxpayers money at 4x the price when the demand on Sheppard only warrants an LRT line. I generally don't agree with corporate welfare.

.
16 condos in 1 area?
 
The light rail line will have small islands like bus stops similar to the St Clair line.

For the record, I will be disappointed if the stations are less well appointed than the Vivastations being built along Highway 7, Viva BRT being a Metrolinx project announced in the same breath as Finch LRT. I'm expecting something a lot closer to the Vivastations than to the St. Clair stops.

tbIt5l.jpg
 

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