TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[vz64]

Maybe commuters are indeed the biggest trip generators, but there is a life after rush hours... My point is that the report you are referring to is not very comprehensive. It fails to take into consideration the population growth in the areas. Since we are not operating with numbers, but with some sort of qualitative "by far the biggest" etc terms, I can argue that unexpectedly high growth of population in NYCC and STC is (by far) compensates for the underestimated growth of projected commuters. Another issue that is often overlooked is non-linear trends in trip growth generation. The Sheppard subway extension might generate way more trips than expected if it is built properly..

 

[rbt]

Maybe commuters are indeed the biggest trip generators, but there is a life after rush hours... My point is that the report you are referring to is not very comprehensive. It fails to take into consideration the population growth in the areas.

We really don't need a subway on Sheppard to handle off-peak loads. It may be cheaper to buy a cab company and give out free rides on demand from door to door for 50 years to everybody in that corridor.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

Yet we're building the most expensive thing in Toronto's history along Eglinton, a corridor with far fewer jobs than what Sheppard has now (especially Eglinton West, which has amongst the city's lowest job densities outside the Rouge Park and virtually no room for growth of any kind). The city has completely abandoned its suburban centre growth plan, so no wonder it failed to meet projections. Will the Spadina line/extension projections also fail to materialize? At least they're building the transit line first, something that didn't happen on Sheppard. Do boosteristic projections made 30 years ago have any relevance, anyway?

Still, trolls like you fail to note all the other jobs along Sheppard. Sheppard has the largest concentration of jobs and trip generators outside the YUS loop. North York General, Fairview, Consumers, all that industrial land between Kennedy and Markham...hell, extend Sheppard east of STC and you can hit Centennial, Centenary, and UTSC, which is tens of thousands of additional jobs and students. STC (the mall alone) is the biggest trip generator in the eastern half of the GTA. And this is all without the city giving a damn about supporting growth in the corridor. And it's a lot more than "a few condos."

Yeah, the DRL needs to be built first, as do Yonge and Danforth to STC extensions. We need to extend Sheppard as part of a $100 billion city-wide plan. It shouldn't be the priority before then, but it is needed. Maybe Sheppard would top out at roughly 20km long and 200,000 riders a day - wow, a subway line that isn't horribly overcrowded! How horrible!

 

[vz64]

We really don't need a subway on Sheppard to handle off-peak loads. It may be cheaper to buy a cab company and give out free rides on demand from door to door for 50 years to everybody in that corridor.

Sorry, but you missed my main point that the growth of other types of commuters may compensate of underestimated commuter ridership. And let's keep it on topic without idiotic references to "it is cheaper to give a free taxi door to door", or so popular "...and I want a pony"--these comments sound not very different from Rob Ford "gravy train" and "people want subways" types of arguments.

 

[rbt]

Sorry, but you missed my main point that the growth of other types of commuters may compensate of underestimated commuter ridership. And let's keep it on topic without idiotic references to "it is cheaper to give a free taxi door to door", or so popular "...and I want a pony"--these comments sound not very different from Rob Ford "gravy train" and "people want subways" types of arguments.

A Sheppard extention to Vic Park will cost $1B. Lets say it increases Sheppard ridership by 25% (roughly 10,000 trips per day). Not even Chong's report came up with 25% ridership boost for Vic Park but lets be optomistic.

$52Million/year = 10,000 trips * 5 days per week * 52 week per year * $20 cab ride

20 years worth of cab rides for all new customers = $1B

$20 for a trip is more than enough to get the VicPark rider from their door to Don Mills station.


Free cab rides isn't all that ludicrous for the money and ridership involved.

I did not include weekends because I also did not include the annual operating subsidies for the subway (roughly $10M/year on Sheppard) or ongoing capital maintenance (mid-life escalator maintenance now underway on Sheppard line).

Also didn't include inflation or interest earned on the $1B sitting in an investment account. A 3% return (Ontario Savings Bonds pay this amount) would give us about 40 years worth of cab rides on $1B for 10,000 trips per work day.


I'm in favour of Sheppard subway (after GO is electrified and DRL and Eglinton LRT and Finch LRT) but lets not kid ourselves about the cost of this thing.

 

[doady]

190 isn't a good indicator for ridership considering it doesn't connect to NYCC, or the Yonge or Spadina Lines.

It is funny how oppponent inflate the costs of subway so much. An extension to SCC would cost around $2.7 billion, not $4 billion. The $4 billion figure ($3.7 billion to be exact) is for cost for the entire Sheppard Subway.

I think the real argument against the Sheppard Subway extension to SCC is that it would increase ridership too much, ridership that the Yonge cannot support without the DRL.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

For anyone that missed the numbers from the Sheppard subway report and insist on trotting out the "massive growth" talking point as justification:

Employment growth in North York Centre and Scarborough Centre.
NYC: 29,400 to 93,400 (1986-2011, projected); 30,200 (2006, actual) a less than 3% gain in 20 years.
STC: 14,400 to 65,000 (1986-2011, projected); 13,700 (2006, actual) for a 5% loss in 20 years.

Throwing up a few condos and building a subway between the two centres won't pull ridership out of thin air since all the jobs have located to Markham, Mississauga, or even downtown.

Great so maybe we can stop using all transit expansion as a development tool (as it does not have a significant influence) and instead focus our transit growth/development in the areas that already have the ridership numbers, the density, and the need for transit improvements. The DRL.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Great so maybe we can stop using all transit expansion as a development tool (as it does not have a significant influence) and instead focus our transit growth/development in the areas that already have the ridership numbers, the density, and the need for transit improvements. The DRL.

So we should stop using transit as a development tool so that we can start using the DRL as a development tool? Gotcha.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

So we should stop using transit as a development tool so that we can start using the DRL as a development tool? Gotcha.

The area to be served by the DRL is already developed.

*** EDIT ***

Couldn't we just use the same type of vehicles that Pittsburgh uses on their LRT/Subway system on the Sheppard line? The Pittsburgh vehicles have both low floor and high floor boarding doors. When running in a along the street (with or without ROW a la TC LRT) passengers board the lower doors, when running underground or in a dedicated ROW passengers board via a platform on the high level doors.

If this type of setup were used we could expand the Sheppard line as an LRT at grade while removing the forced transfer at Don Mill from LRT to Subway.

See image.

 

[vz64]

...
Also didn't include inflation or interest earned on the $1B sitting in an investment account. A 3% return (Ontario Savings Bonds pay this amount) would give us about 40 years worth of cab rides on $1B for 10,000 trips per work day.

Well, you didn't include many other things such as possibility of drastically increased ridership due to proper connectivity. You also forgot to mention that by the end of your "taxi experiment" we would have no subway line and lots of wasted money

I'm in favour of Sheppard subway (after GO is electrified and DRL and Eglinton LRT and Finch LRT) but lets not kid ourselves about the cost of this thing.

I did not say anything about cost or priority; I agree that Sheppard should come after DRL and I agree that road tolls, parking, and maybe increase property tax for a new subway corridors should be used to finance subway lines; that way we don't have to wait another 50yr to build another subway line.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

The area to be served by the DRL is already developed.

Some of it, sure. Some other stretches are filled with 2 story buildings that will never be redeveloped (depending, of course, on where and how long the DRL is). There's tons of existing and underway development already along Sheppard, too, but you're free to pretend it's not there.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Some of it, sure. Some other stretches are filled with 2 story buildings that will never be redeveloped (depending, of course, on where and how long the DRL is). There's tons of existing and underway development already along Sheppard, too, but you're free to pretend it's not there.

For the record I do support the Sheppard subway extension and acknowledge the growth that has happened there. However the initial poster presented the information in an attempt to disprove the idea that having transit encourages TOD. So I made the (somewhat) facetious conclusion that any transit plan that depends on growth of the region around the planned line should NOT be a priority.

 

[rbt]

Well, you didn't include many other things such as possibility of drastically increased ridership due to proper connectivity. You also forgot to mention that by the end of your "taxi experiment" we would have no subway line and lots of wasted money

If you've seen what we spend on Yonge, you realize we won't have a subway (effective value of asset is $0) because of everything that needs to be replaced.

And I did take into account drastically increased ridership. 25% boost for Sheppard was quite a bit higher than the rosie estimates Chong gives for a Vic Park extension. TTC and Metrolinx documents both have lower estimates.

If you don't believe Chong's numbers for a ridership bump by going to Vic Park, take it up with him and Ford.


It takes several hundred million per year of capital and maintenace to keep YUS running. Add it up over a 30 year period and guess what you've effectively rebuilt from scratch. It's a funny thing about assets which depreciate in value and require maintenance; their book value decreases rapidly over a few decades.


I'm in favour of spending $20 per trip for a subway to Vic Park. I much prefer trains over a cab ride; but don't fool yourself into thinking one is cheaper than the other.

 

[vz64]

rbt, I did not mean 10-20% higher; I meant x3, x4 time higher! I am talking about non-linear, interactive trend that is hard to estimate using conventional methods (even in Chong's report). To use an analogy, imagine you are trying to start a fire (you don't know much about them) and your expectations are not met when you managed to fire a single stick. Then you calculate that if you increase your fire-starting efforts by say 10%, you might get 10-15% of gain in terms of fire strength. Then, to your surprise, there is a great fire 100 times stronger than you expected! I am not claiming that this is definitely what is going to happen on Sheppard if it is built properly (at least Agincourt to Downsview), but it is a possibility and I hope you got my idea.

Re maintenance: all lanes will need maintenance and I said many times we need new sources of funds to build and maintain our transportation system. I think TTC unique in the sense it covers around 85% of its cost by riders; I think more typical percent around the world is 50%.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

For the record I do support the Sheppard subway extension and acknowledge the growth that has happened there. However the initial poster presented the information in an attempt to disprove the idea that having transit encourages TOD. So I made the (somewhat) facetious conclusion that any transit plan that depends on growth of the region around the planned line should NOT be a priority.

The initial poster also used incorrect numbers to distort the growth percentages (though if he got the numbers from a dentist like Chong, maybe he found them that way). Lots of people on the internet have a history of trotting out incorrect numbers and ignorance to attack things that aren't their pet project.

With Sheppard, ridership growth depends more on the growth of the line itself than development. You can't serve a 20km or longer corridor with a 5km transit line and expect to see a similar ridership to what a 20km line would see.