TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[Solid Snake]

Maybe we should tell Montreal that building the blue line was a waste of money and since it's not horribly overcrowded by TTC standards, it's a failure

Funny because the whole city calls it a success and the whole city wants the eastern extension to Anjou and the Les Galeries D'anjou (funny enough, it's like STC mall)

Sheppard Avenue has way more jobs, traffic and density than Queen Mary road, Edouard-Monpetit blvd and Jean-Talon street combined.

There's no real destination on the blue line except
-Montreal University
-Parc Commuter train station (that Montrealers don't use)

Yet it's paralleled to highway 40 (the busiest on the Island) and a fast northern crosstown connecting with both ends of the Orange line.

 

[andrewpmk]

Yet we're building the most expensive thing in Toronto's history along Eglinton, a corridor with far fewer jobs than what Sheppard has now (especially Eglinton West, which has amongst the city's lowest job densities outside the Rouge Park and virtually no room for growth of any kind). The city has completely abandoned its suburban centre growth plan, so no wonder it failed to meet projections. Will the Spadina line/extension projections also fail to materialize? At least they're building the transit line first, something that didn't happen on Sheppard. Do boosteristic projections made 30 years ago have any relevance, anyway?

Still, trolls like you fail to note all the other jobs along Sheppard. Sheppard has the largest concentration of jobs and trip generators outside the YUS loop. North York General, Fairview, Consumers, all that industrial land between Kennedy and Markham...hell, extend Sheppard east of STC and you can hit Centennial, Centenary, and UTSC, which is tens of thousands of additional jobs and students. STC (the mall alone) is the biggest trip generator in the eastern half of the GTA. And this is all without the city giving a damn about supporting growth in the corridor. And it's a lot more than "a few condos."

Yeah, the DRL needs to be built first, as do Yonge and Danforth to STC extensions. We need to extend Sheppard as part of a $100 billion city-wide plan. It shouldn't be the priority before then, but it is needed. Maybe Sheppard would top out at roughly 20km long and 200,000 riders a day - wow, a subway line that isn't horribly overcrowded! How horrible!

Pearson Airport has one of the largest concentrations of jobs in the GTA. If Eglinton is extended westward then that guarantees high ridership.

 

[rbt]

rbt, I did not mean 10-20% higher; I meant x3, x4 time higher!

Your 120,000 to 160,000 trips per day estimate is not in line with that TTC, Metrolinx or Gordon Chong have said is a practical expectation for VicPark extension ridership boost.

If it was easy, I would just make up and use my own estimations. Instead, I'm using estimations by people who have been doing this kind of thing for a lifetime.

Please explain how you get a radically higher number than the experts. Keep in mind that Sheppard thus far has been below expectations (which is why Chong's are considered agressive; he uses the same baseline growth patterns as that EA which overshot).

 

[11th]

Yeah, the DRL needs to be built first, as do Yonge and Danforth to STC extensions. We need to extend Sheppard as part of a $100 billion city-wide plan. It shouldn't be the priority before then, but it is needed.

I think that's the consensus both camps (pro-LRT-only and pro-subways-only, or anywhere in between) need to come to. So far the pro-LRT side seems to take every opportunity to condemn the line to eternal hell. But then, who needs to compromise when one knows they do not have to.

 

[vz64]

rbt, I did not do "estimations", I just voiced possibility of this happening and I explained to you my logic. OK, one more time--If the Sheppard line is extended from Downsview to Agincourt, the growth will not depend on local densities, but on long-distance commuters, the same commuters who are travelling now along 401, Finch, Sheppard. Then, there is rapid-transit connectivity between West-North (York U, Vaughan) and East parts of the city, so you might observe avalanche-type rise in ridership. These non-linear trends are usually very hard to predict, thus majority of computer modelers prefer to apply linear trends and additive combination of factors. We are in low ridership on Sheppard line because it did not reach its critical point!

 

[rbt]

These non-linear trends are usually very hard to predict, thus majority of computer modelers prefer to apply linear trends and additive combination of factors. We are in low ridership on Sheppard line because it did not reach its critical point!

So instead of the DRL and Electrification of GO, both of which are known to difficulties keeping up with ridership growth; you propose to put all our money eggs into the Sheppard basket based on speculation on what could be.



I respectfully disagree that Sheppard can carry any significant traffic from the 401. You may have noticed very few driveways back onto the 401 directly. Very few people using Highway 401 have trips that start and end on or near Sheppard; if they did then Sheppard would have 16 lanes worth of traffic on it.

The 401 serves trips from Whitby to the Airport Centre and any other number of combinations. Capturing those via Sheppard will be tricky.

MTO and Toronto do publish numbers for streets around the 401 and I don't know them off hand. You might be able to show there are 100,000 latent trips in the Sheppard corridor currently using the 401.


That said, even in New York only burb to burb line (G-Line) still suffers from very low ridership and high subsidies after 80 years of operation.

You will recall the G-Line is the one they truncated service on when tax revenues (operating subsidies) dropped in 2010.

Are there any suburb to suburb HRT lines in North America that have the kind of ridership you are expecting for Sheppard? Second, how can you prioritize it above the DRL and Electrification/substantial service boost of 2 GO lines (LakeShore West/East + Georgetown).

 

[vz64]

So instead of the DRL and Electrification of GO, both of which are known to difficulties keeping up with ridership growth; you propose to put all our money eggs into the Sheppard basket based on speculation on what could be.
...

I did say that we need DRL first and I alos said we need new [substantial] funds to maintain and finance our transportation system. I am not sure why you keep on saying things I did not propose...

 

[rbt]

I did say that we need DRL first and I alos said we need new [substantial] funds to maintain and finance our transportation system. I am not sure why you keep on saying things I did not propose...

There isn't money to do all 5 (Eglinton, Finch, Sheppard, DRL and GO electrified).

McGuinty doesn't have the political capital left to send another large chunk of cash to Toronto. Debt issues won't allow it.

Metrolinx will not be able to implement new revenue raising tools unless the majority of regions demand it. York and Peel would be in favour and Durham Region against. Official opposition will be running ads saying that McGuinty is breaking another promise (no new taxes as promised).

McGuinty needs to be backed into a corner and demanded to implement the new taxes by Toronto for this to be politically feasible right before an election that he is likely to lose; and have it stick in the next government (see GST).

So, since we have all the transit expansion money we will be getting until 2020. How are you going to spend it?

There is what we need, what we want, and what can actually be done. Don't count on money from Metrolinx being volunteered freely. We're going to need to demand it and Ford isn't going to do it (based on his reaction to Chong's revenue raising ideas).

 

[vz64]

I hope Ford will come to his senses and stop saying his mantra "no revenue problem". We do have revenue problem.. The Chong's report showed Ford how we can finance transit projects; I think if his suggestions implemented, all the projects you listed can be built in reasonable timeframe. I am not sure Ford(s) is willing or capable of doing it... We need someone like Sarah Thomson to lead this city.

 

[GenerationW]

We need someone like Sarah Thomson to lead this city.

Yes, we need someone who committed to running for Mayor, stayed in the race after the cutoff date, committed to not running for Mayor, and then threw her support behind a candidate with a horrible public administrative record (who got his clock cleaned by a guy with no public administrative record).

Someone like her perhaps, just not her.

Great so maybe we can stop using all transit expansion as a development tool (as it does not have a significant influence) and instead focus our transit growth/development in the areas that already have the ridership numbers, the density, and the need for transit improvements. The DRL.

Kind of says it all that we have $8.4 billion to spend however we want yet neither of our parallel transit plans wants to spend a dime on the DRL.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

The initial poster also used incorrect numbers to distort the growth percentages (though if he got the numbers from a dentist like Chong, maybe he found them that way). Lots of people on the internet have a history of trotting out incorrect numbers and ignorance to attack things that aren't their pet project.

With Sheppard, ridership growth depends more on the growth of the line itself than development. You can't serve a 20km or longer corridor with a 5km transit line and expect to see a similar ridership to what a 20km line would see.

I went back and re-read the OP's post and still, the implication that he/she was making was that there was not the growth along Sheppard that was expected on the subway was. Whether they used the wrong statistics to back that up (or even intentionally skewed statistics) is irrelevant. My point still was based on the OP's conclusion of no construction on Sheppard should happen given that growth has not happened around the existing Sheppard subway (correct conclusion or not) than maybe we shouldn't be building subways to VMC and RHC where "immense growth is expected" (since simply plopping a subway down does not guarantee an intense urban environment) and instead look at routes that already have the ridership and are at or over capacity.

I feel like we are arguing from the same side of the table just approaching it from different directions.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

I went back and re-read the OP's post and still, the implication that he/she was making was that there was not the growth along Sheppard that was expected on the subway was. Whether they used the wrong statistics to back that up (or even intentionally skewed statistics) is irrelevant. My point still was based on the OP's conclusion of no construction on Sheppard should happen given that growth has not happened around the existing Sheppard subway (correct conclusion or not) than maybe we shouldn't be building subways to VMC and RHC where "immense growth is expected" (since simply plopping a subway down does not guarantee an intense urban environment) and instead look at routes that already have the ridership and are at or over capacity.

I feel like we are arguing from the same side of the table just approaching it from different directions.

There are no individual routes that already have "the ridership" - ridership needs to be manipulated in every case. Build a transit line in one place and people divert themselves from another place. Surface routes are altered. Development patterns are reinforced or changed. We've seen a bit of this with Sheppard but not nearly as much as we'd see if it was 30km long instead of 5.

Sheppard has already seen immense growth since the 80s and this is continuing with or without a subway extension. Everyone knows this. You know this. Immense growth is occurring along the Vaughan and Richmond Hill extension corridors, too....what's the worry? The conclusion you mentioned is obviously incorrect. Do you seriously think development will not occur along Yonge north of Finch? And the entire Spadina corridor from Lawrence to Hwy 7 is geared for massive development.

The Sheppard line isn't moving, say, 200,000 people today but it's not due to a lack of growth since the 80s, it's due to a lack of subway! And quite frankly, a Sheppard subway from Downsview to STC (or even a bit longer) would serve an area almost as intensely developed as the DRL. There's no development between the Danforth line and the Don. The Don Mills leg is a string of clusters and nodes like Sheppard. If it runs along Queen, same thing: mostly 2-3 storey buildings and little large-scale redevelopment possible. But the DRL still needs to be built - it has an inherent modal share advantage, more opportunities to divert riders from other places, and offers specific relief to the YUS loop.

We need the DRL and we need other subway extensions, and other projects aren't bad or not worth building just because we don't yet have a functioning DRL. If we're not building our #1 priority, but at least we're moving forward with #2, 3, 4, and 5, it's not the end of the world!

 

[quicksilver]

The poor decision-making Rob Ford is forcing on City of Toronto in both his public comments and transit planning is remarkably similar to the former Mayor Mel Lastman. Mayor Rob Ford has the promise of being far more destructive because of $billions currently on the table. Hopefully there wont be any Kenyan invitations during his time as mayor

As an ambassador of Toronto's multicultural character

Mayor Mel Lastman: "What the hell do I want to go to a place like Mombasa [Kenya]? ... I'm sort of scared about going there ... I just see myself in a pot of boiling water with all these natives dancing around me." 2001

Councilor Rob Ford: “Those Oriental people work like dogs… They sleep beside their machines… The Oriental people, they’re slowly taking over… They’re hard, hard workers.†2008

Most significant transit achievement/proposal

Mayor Mel Lastman: Five station Sheppard subway that terminates at a mall rather than a recognized employment or city centre.

Mayor Rob Ford: To spend an extra $2 billion to underground the east end of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line despite adequate space at the surface level to accomodate transit and automobiles; Extend Sheppard subway to Scarborough Town Centre underground at $4 billion, without knowing how to pay for it, despite a province-paid plan for suface LRT at 1/4 the cost along an avenue with adequate space for transit and automobiles.

 

[Rainforest]

Most significant transit achievement/proposal

Mayor Rob Ford: To spend an extra $2 billion to underground the east end of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line despite adequate space at the surface level to accomodate transit and automobiles; Extend Sheppard subway to Scarborough Town Centre underground at $4 billion, without knowing how to pay for it, despite a province-paid plan for suface LRT at 1/4 the cost along an avenue with adequate space for transit and automobiles.

Both "achievements" are not achievable together, there are no funds for that. He can either force all of Eglinton underground and build nothing on Sheppard, or he can extend Sheppard and settle for surface-subway on Eglinton.

If he does not realize that, then someone else (Stintz?) will manage the transit file de-facto until 2014 (hopefully, the date of Ford's departure from the mayoral post).

 

[Dan416]

I wish people would stop saying there aren't funds for this or that. There are.